Guest loto7 Posted November 22, 2023 Posted November 22, 2023 I'm trying to work out if there's a way to generalise this beyond simply calculating a flat vigorish % and reapplying to the original odds to determine the "fair" odds. For example, if a 2-way market has odds of 1.97 and 1.9, then I sum the implied probabilities, so 1/1.97+1/1.9 = ~1.034, so the house edge is about 3.4%. Then I multiply the original odds by this 1.033 figure to get ~2.04 and ~1.96. In the scenarios where odds are around evens this seems perfectly reasonable. However, we all know that house edge may not be applied equally to all odds. From my research I suspect that it tends to be applied disproportionately to more extreme odds. Let's imagine a 2-way market where the odds are 1.01 and 25. So "fair" odds would be 1.04 and 25.75. I think it's pretty clear that these are likely not the true fair odds for a market like this. So what's going on exactly? How can I make a best guess here? Quote
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.