Jump to content

How is House Edge Calculated?


loto7

Recommended Posts

I'm trying to work out if there's a way to generalise this beyond simply calculating a flat vigorish % and reapplying to the original odds to determine the "fair" odds.

For example, if a 2-way market has odds of 1.97 and 1.9, then I sum the implied probabilities, so 1/1.97+1/1.9 = ~1.034, so the house edge is about 3.4%. Then I multiply the original odds by this 1.033 figure to get ~2.04 and ~1.96.

In the scenarios where odds are around evens this seems perfectly reasonable. However, we all know that house edge may not be applied equally to all odds.

From my research I suspect that it tends to be applied disproportionately to more extreme odds. Let's imagine a 2-way market where the odds are 1.01 and 25. So "fair" odds would be 1.04 and 25.75. I think it's pretty clear that these are likely not the true fair odds for a market like this.

So what's going on exactly? How can I make a best guess here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...