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Racing chat Sunday 1st October


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On a big day in France I’ll start the ball rolling at 

Sha Tin 0800

Dragons luck

win

Fast Victory 

each way

is worth a small interest on debut for David Hayes.

A winner in the Antipodes already,  the bar is not set too high for this runner and he could go well at a nice price.

May well need the run as always, but that is covered by the double figure odds. Keris Teeton is the jockey.

Dragon’s luck under the champion jockey, has gone close in recent runs and is the cover bet here. 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Sha tin

0835

 

lucky eternity

win

knocking on the proverbial door with two close up seconds in seasonal reappearance behind Pakistan friend (on a hat trick) and at the end of last season.

twice behind progressive types and seems turn is today under Hugh Bowman.

Precise Express

each way

drops in class under  Andre Atzeni here and well below last winning mark a real chance

Edited by Sporting Sam
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0.1 e/w lucky 15 bog 3pts invested lucky 15 

Fantastic Moon @ 9/1
Longchamp 15:05 - Winner
4 - 1/ 5
 
Returns £0.00

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Stay Alert @ 18/1
Longchamp 15:50 - Winner
4 - 1/ 5
 
Returns £0.00

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White Lavender @ 15/2
Longchamp 16:25 - Winner
4 - 1/ 5
 
Returns £0.00

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Native American @ 9/1
Longchamp 13:15 - Winner
3 - 1/ 5
 
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stolz a quality group winner at Sha Tin.

the first winner of the month and one of Forty intended winners in October.

Sha Tin

1015

KARMA

win

Dropped to five furlongs for reappearance recently and no suprise he tailed in last. 
Ariel

captain Hurricane 

both each way

no need for raging furies if these two don’t make the frame.

Ariel seen off by karma last season but ran well in defeat. Captain Hurricane a stable switcher and yard on the cold list but gone close with recent runners.

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Stolz, karma and Blue marlin have all won easily at Sha Tin racetrack. Ariel was second to karma at 16/1 and returned each way. That is thirty seven more winners to go to reach my October target of forty.  If you’ve seen my selections at Chelmsford last night you’ll know I’m on the cusp of landing forecasts and tricasts using the Alexander method. I’ve tried to do one without the other. it was all draw data last night with the forecasting  and tricasting left to one side without the physics added. Hopefully sometime this month before the flat season is out I’ll attempt to land some forecasts and tricasts. It works just as well with national hunt and anywhere on the planet because we are all affected by the same laws of physics.

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Fantastic meeting at longchamp coming up and 

1315

Beauvatier 

win

is the local unbeaten horse here.

NATIVE AMERICAN 

Each way

Richard Fahey sends his Irish sales race  winner here for a group one start. To be fair the sales race in Ireland is full of chancers hoping to bag 300k and this race is the real test of mettle. There is though an absentee drawn to race alongside this runner in stall 11 and that’ll potentially be a great help.

The horse he beat in Ireland runs in the 1415 at Epsom and is cross referenced in the Hugh Taylor thread.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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1 hour ago, Sporting Sam said:

Düsseldorf 1535

BRAVE EMPOROR 

Win

 

4/40.

Luke Morris 

does the business the arc winning jockey rides them to sleep for Archie Watson and that’s winner number 5 on the day including Ace impact and three in hong Kong to make it just 35 to go for the months target to be reached.

wether it’s longchamp or Wolverhampton this jockey just gets on with the job.

5/40

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Epsom 1745

a real show of the changing of the guard here as Billy loughnane gets the leg up on an AMO runner in the presence of Kevin Stott who recently lost the gig ( why I don’t know) he’s been on this horse many times but this listed and group placed horse hasn’t got his head in front and has been frustrating to follow 

little boy blue 

maxi boy

both each way

Marley park

win

Marley park won this last year but won here recently and may have lost the chance to back up the run due to the rise but this looks a deeper race and a few horses have “turned up” including Brighton specialist little boy blue…..

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Ended the day on six winners

three in Hong Kong 

Stolz

Karma

Blue marlin

one in Düsseldorf ridden by Luke Morris.

Brave Emperor 

one at Longchamp 

Ace impact

one in the states on the USA thread.

Loved Reilko 

but to be fair would have  been better to have gone all in on Ace impact!

(There was a seventh winner snapatera as it was a follow up bet to his blinding run for Joseph O’Brien in midweek. But I posted that on another forum.)

ive set a target, a pointless one but a target nonetheless, to land three tricasts this month and forty winners on this forum. It is very easy to lose focus and that is certainly what happened to me yesterday but the highlight was Ace impact.

The  after race analysis is fascinating. as stunning and mature as his first impact busting win over more experienced rivals when most if not all thought the runaway leader who’d gone clear in the straight was home and hosed as ace impact was rounding the turn. He did much the same today from closer order so as not to let the field get away, just like a cat plays with a mouse.

Thirty four winners to go. Hopefully two more today. 

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