AFL - Preliminary Finals Weekend

[Ashtee]

Adelaide win by under 24.5: at 3.85 West Coast win by under 24.5: at 3.50 Winning margin of under 24.5 either team; in a game I’ve marked Evens H2H. I’m going early, as I think the price may well drop and Centrebet are usually alone on this market. A couple of Oz books run a market on Under 15.5/either side, so will be interesting what they offer. Preliminary Finals are typically either ‘nail-biters’ or ‘blowouts’. This doesn’t have the characteristics of a blowout to me. Adelaide are the form team and extremely well drilled, they will be there till the end. Had WC been the team having to win through, yes a ‘blow-out’ was some possibility, but the weeks break, they are a team who carries much of the coaches attributes and the fact they are at home, I doubt they won’t be strong for this. They didn’t finish the season well and many question their win last week although Sydney seemed to choke (not umpiring!). For the sake of form lines, Sydney were on their game that night, but they looked caught complacent against a committed Geelong. I totally expect a genuine contest from WC. Some telling stats on the under: WC/13-10, Adelaide/14-10. Against TOP-8 Teams: WC/7-4 (Beat St.K 36 at Subi RD8, St.K had depleted squad), Ade/9-5. WC at Subiaco:6-7 (12W-1L). WC last 8-games: 4-4 (3-1 with top-8 teams): WC last five at Subi:3-2 (went under with Ade & Syd). WC/Ade previous two meetings were tight and low scoring (Margins 11 & 8), as you’d expect given their strengths v weaknesses, and low scoring games have been more of a trend for these two against strong opponents. Added, rain looks some chance for Saturday but shouldn’t be necessary. The average price by taking the two Under 24.5 options is 1.84. I can’t see this as worse than a 4/7 probability.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Preliminary Finals Weekend HT-FT: Ade-WC @ 7.00 HT-FT: WC-Ade @ 8.00 (or 7.50) Basically another bet on this being close, so I won’t go overboard and dip too deeply into my bank. 23% (41/182) of games this season have seen a reversal of the half time result and I feel these prices are too closely framed to that stat. When the final margin was up to 24pts there were 38% reversals, 43% if the margin was up to 15pts (50% follow thru & 7% AOR). For the two bets combined, the books are basically giving 11/4, whereas I like it as about a 2/1 chance. Still like Adelaide as even money to win but I do rate the Ade-WC option slightly shorter than WC-Ade, so both are value. Also think 34.00 available on AOR is a touch of value. 2005 Margin-Rev-F/Thru-AOR 1-15pts---24---28-----4 16-24pts--7----19-----0 25+pts----10---90-----0