AFL Rd. 20.

[Ashtee]

Essendon to win at 1.55 Not surprisingly, Essendon’s excellent recent form has coincided with the return to form of Lloyd, not to mention Hird’s recent return to the team. I felt they would have made it close last week had Fletcher not gone off and his absence this week will make it possible for opposing forwards to score. McPhee will also be in doubt. However Hawthorn have a long injury list themselves and seem all too content to focus on their development program. They were actually as poor as usual last week despite level to half time against a flat Brisbane who are a very bland team indeed when Brown and Akermanis are absent. I’m again expecting plenty of “kick the bloody thing!!!†from Hawks supporters as Essendon should prove too smart, too efficient, and too dangerous near goal. Rating Essendon 4/11. The 1.55 has gone now but I'd be taking 1.50 or shorter with much confidence. At the time I posted the play I knew Williams could be in doubt but news has just come through that he's out for the season. Also Hodge doen't appear on the injury list but was clearly limited in the last half against Bris. Geelong 1.48 v Melbourne 2.90 I'm also having a think over Melbourne. I've only liked them this season when at full strength, moreso providing no defenders are missing. Both side have injuries and whilst Melb aren't going well neither is Geelong. Melb havn't won at Kardinia Park for 17-years and Geel are 4-1 their this season mostly playing suporterless oponents. So that perhaps explains their short quote but whether they should be that short is another thing. Maybe it won't amount to an issue this time but sometimes clubs can make it a motivating theme for the week to overcome such hoodoos. Likewise I often prefer rolling against such trends.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 20. Looks a strange old week of AFL to me Ashtee. I actually think most (if not all) the odds are pretty spot on this week. I'm not so sure that Essendon are the best value....Everitt will have the ruck all to himself, and Fletcher out will hurt. I know the Hawks aren't the most free-scoring of teams, but Croad has looked ok there recently (apart from his kicking!). The Bombers really haven't been travelling all that well at all, even in their last 2 wins the opp had more scoring shots. I'll be waiting to see the final teams before getting involved with Melbourne/Geelong. Both teams are extremely under-manned atm. Agree tho, Geelong should get home @ home. Eagles look a good shout at 1.60, Crows nice @ 1.50, but history has shown that it's tough for a team to win both 'derbys' in the same season. I do like Sydney, and will definately be on them if Akermanis doesn't come up. Brown/Leppitsch already out, and Black under a cloud. 1.60 looks good to me.