AFL Rd. 16.

[TazaD]

Nice goin' last week, John. Very wise not to trust the favs not to cover. :clap Kangaroos -21.5 Hawthorn being over-rated after a good performance last week, but made loook that way after another late Crows fade out. (twice in 2 weeks they've done me over ), and of course the Kanga's are constantly being under-rated. Bottom line, this is 7th v. 15th. Hawthorn have lost 6 straight games, 5 by more than this number, and are now without Mitchell, and to a lesser extend Brown and Bateman. (The 3 of them combined for 70 possessions in the first meeting this year). The Kanga's last 3 in the dome have been 29 and 42 point wins over teams far better than Hawthorn, and a heart-breaking loss last week v. the Eagles. Given Hawthorn lost by 55 points to an injury riddled Geelong 2 weeks ago, this one should get very ugly. Ashtee, I notice you are backing Freo on Sunday, but imv it's quite possibly the sucker bet of the week. (Hopefully not!) One decent performance (even then they only had 1 more inside 50 than the Doggies) and everyone is back on the bandwagon. Carlton are falling badly, but they've only been blown away in their last4, and they were all tough assignments. Freo only won 1 game in their last 10 at the 'G by more than 14 points, and they only beat the Blues in Perth by 19 points in Rd. 5...and Carlton had more scoring shots. And surely this will be an 'on' week for Fev after going kick-less last week?! Realistically these are two pretty bad teams, tough to take the Dockers as an away fav...esp if the rain and wind that is predicted comes along. Good luck guys. :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. A Note on Adelaide Word is that Craig is training them hard at the moment in preparation for the finals (increase fitness base) as he did when fitness coach with Blight in 97/98. They also dropped a couple of games that they were expected to win in that phase of their training. Carlton v Fremantle Personally I'm not big on distant form. The round-5 clash was back then. I also feel they actually go well at the G. If it does rain (AM showers is the latest I have), these days it usually doen't, I think Fremantle are a more robust looking outfit than recent years. Players out through injury and some subsequent loss of confidence appears the main reason for their poor form prior to Adelaide. With McPharlin back with Pav I don't believe they need to go in that often for a result. Headland and Schammer back gives them plently. Schammer apparently has had setbacks to his season but is up and about now. Confidence levels is a major factor I look for and I feel the Adelaide last quarter was a turning point. It should get carried through this week. Admittadly WB tired off a tough game the week before. Yes, I thought about the Fevola factor but given that Carlton's form is too consistantly bad IMO, I'm not so sure. It does smell of morale issues there such as players not responding to the coaching simmilar to Richmond and Hawthorn of last year. I believe these factors become more concrete later in a season. Commentators are giving Camporale a hard time but I believe he's playing with an injury. Kouta possibly still is also? RD-11 L25 v Sydney wan't a bad effort with there only Ruckmen (Bryan) tiring which proved costly although I felt Sydney were clearly the better side. Admiitedly Carlton do have a slightly better squad now. RD-10 L14 v Adelaide was a flattering result. Carlton came out on fire, jumping Adel but Adel were way too good IMO. RD-9 L18 v Melb, another flattering result IMO as the game was shot at 3/4-time with a bolters last-1/4 effort from the Blues for OO farewell game. They've lost nine on end now with no sign of genuine spirit to me. Doen't look as flash with Polak and Farmer out but I would have marked them shorter only for the hint of an out or two. I'm sure someone will win this. At 1.52 I'm happy with the dockers. Hawthorn v Kangaroos This was the one I felt nervous regarding Kangas at the H'cap. Off the big honourable loss and some good form, and plenty of back slapping I believe the subconcious can take the foot off the pedal. A commentator interviewing Laidley last week told him they ARE playing finals. They really need 4 of 7 to get in or their bound to miss on percentage. With the Hawthorn outs I don't think they can mount enough of a challenge. Think you should get paid on that one Taza. Good luck to everyone having a shot this round.