Tri-Nations Rugby Ante Post

[AJ]

Early prices out for this NZ 1.61 Aus 3.5 RSA 5.0 Seems to me that the obvious value here is in the Aussies. NZ are very shortly priced because they destroyed the Lions, but I think this was because the Lions were rubbish, more than NZ being great. I think the lions would have also lost 3-0 if they'd being playing over the ditch, in the west island. The Aussies looked good beating the south africans, and should be joint favourites anyway. Take the Aussies at 3.5, and you'll be able to lat it off later at a shorter price for sure. The feeling I get from the kiwis is that they think they're invincible and nothing can stand in their way, they're totally caught up in the hype of the victory over the lions. I think 15 guys in gold jerseys will prove them wrong.

[Smithy888]

Re: Tri-Nations Rugby Ante Post Agree totally. You cannot afford to be wrong backing the ABs at such short odds , whereas you can with $3.50 or $5 odds. To back ABs @ $1.60 you have to give them about a 75% chance of taking this series out. Since the series began they have taken it out 5 times out of 9. this equates to a 55% historical chance, so you would have to be generous to give them a 75% chance. Following this logic only SA's odds reflect their historical chance as both Oz and SA have won twice giving them a historical 22 % chance. The schedule is against ABs early so good chance they will drop one of their away games and lengthen in the odds. Aus are likely to shorten as are the Boks if they win one of their opening games. The ABs are always on the verge of invincibility according to the locals but always seem to struggle when the going gets tough, though they have performed better in the more relaxed format of the Tri nations than the pressure cooker World Cup. Still its Oz for me.

Date	Fixture	KO	GMT	Venue
Jul 30	SA v Aus	15:00	13:00	Loftus, Pretoria	-
Aug 6	SA v NZ	15:00	13:00	Newlands, Cape Town	-
Aug 13	Aus v NZ	20:00	10:00	Telstra, Sydney	-
Aug 20	Aus v SA	18:00	10:00	Subiaco, Perth	-
Aug 27	NZ v SA	19.35	07:35	Carisbrook, Dunedin	-
Sept 3	NZ v Aus	19.35	07:35	Eden Park, Auckland