John Deere Classic, US Tour Golf

[Plow-King]

The John Deere Classic. These tourneys before the majors are often a mine field and I expect this to be anything but a ‘classic’. I have to say I’m hugely disappointed, as I had a decent bet lined up for this , a player with good course form and ticks in all the right boxes for stats needed to go well round the Deere run course. But alas, Joe Durant has decided not to play this event. Looking at previous years results, it appears the key stats are driving accuracy and more importantly Greens in regulation. But given the fact most of the top players are giving this a miss to concentrate on next weeks Open championship, finding players that are doing well in both these stats is a more difficult task than would first appear. The players I have considered just seemed to have awful course form or awful current form or both!, which makes them unbackable. So, I’m going to take a gamble and edge more on the side of course form when backing players this week. I will also go for some players with good GIR stats First up is J.L.Lewis. His recent form is C,C,C,46,49,37 So he looks to be coming in to some sort of decent form after 3 missed cuts. And also, his last 3 finishes will have been in fields of far higher class than this, with a very respectable 49th at the US Open a few weeks ago. His course form for the last 5 years reads, 27,2,8,61,50 and he also won this tournament in 1999, but it should be noted that that was on a different course to this. But looking at his previous results he has been in bad form and done well here, so we hope that as his form is good he can do even better on a course he obviously enjoys. Just don’t look at his stats tho. 80-1 at Totesport Secondly, I was looking for a player with a bit of value who had done well in the GIR stats in last weeks tourney. Two players caught the eye who both finished tied for 3rd in that category. Chris Smith, who has made the cut in his previous 2 visits at the Deere Run and at 250-1 is a huge price. But he has showed nothing this season and I normally like backing some players with some form in the bank. So we put a line through him and instead I choose to back D.J Trahan. Like I say, T3 in GIR last week and anything like that this week in this field with a half decent putting performance should see him contend. No course form to go on, but his last 6 outings on tour have been 9,9,C,38,C,16, so hopefully the good GIR performance last week are signs of a return to the form which saw him grab back to back top 10’s. 125-1 Totesport Finally, we go for our good old friend Lucas Glover. I’ve backed him many times this season and made a nice wedge out of backing him for the top 10. This season, in 14 starts he has made the top ten 6 times. Very impressive when you consider he has missed 5 cuts. So the theory goes, if he makes the cut he performs well and more often than not lands in the top ten, equally encouraging, he is one of the highest ranked players for 4th round scoring average. He is ranked 17th for GIR and 5th for ball striking. The one worry is his driving accuracy, which is poor, but the GIR would suggest that even though he doesn’t hit the fairway he can still get it on the green. You have to stay away from him when he is on courses with very pennal rough, but that isn’t the case here. And when you consider on his only 2 starts on this course he has finished 32nd and 40th, this seems to suggest he should go well and again make the cut and hopefully land somewhere near the top of the leaderboard. 50-1 General The player in the field who is ranked highest in GIR is last weeks pick Billy Mayfair and he must have a good chance of the win this week, but for me his price is just too low. This may be an error on my part come Sunday night having a 20-1 winner staring me in the face and not backing it. What I would recommend however is that if he gets off to a bad start to maybe back him in running after the first round depending on the circumstances. He seems to take a bit of time to get going in tourneys. He was a couple over after 6 holes in his first round last week and still came back to grab 4th. Just a small note to say personally I am keeping stakes low this week as apart from Glover, the above are only speculative plays. I’m saving my cash for The Open next week, where I already have ante post bets on Bjorn, Cabrerra and Davis Love.

[Plow-King]

Re: John Deere Classic, US Tour Golf Just a quick note as round one is 90% done. I did advise to back Billy Mayfair if he got off to a slow start but he got off to a reasonable start and shot -3, he is currently available to back at 25 on betfair. Although his prices did hit 36 during his first round. I wouldnt be backing at that price. Of the players backed. Glover played like a dog, but he is prone to that :eyes Trahan did ok shooting -3 and is still in contention. The real prospect for a challenger this week looks like it will come from JL Lewis, who is -6 about to finish his final hole, with only one player ahead of him. Its early days, but lets hope he can stay there. :hope