SIG's All Weather Sprint Speed Ratings

[SIG]

This system is based around my own speed ratings and pace analysis. It covers only all weather sprint races (5-8 furlongs) and will follow a combination of back and lay bets on each race. 

The target is to leave each race with a profit. Starting bank - £1,000.00 = 100pts.

Good luck! 

[SIG]

15/03/16 - 15:55 Southwell - 6f (Class 4) - 9 Runners

Let's see what we can do with this one....

Speed Ratings
Borough Boy - 917
*Addictive Dream - 880
Captain Lars - 865
Greyfriarschorista - 863

All of these horses are not only quickest but improving all the time. Borough Boy has ran the quickest recently (LTO) by quite some margin. The only other horse who has ran a standout time recently has been Greyfriarschorista (LTO). *Addictive Dream is the danger horse. He ran an 882 LTO on his all weather debut and if he improves on this, he could find himself in contention with the leaders. Captain Lars is also a threat if he improves further. 

Pace Analysis
Early Race Pace
Borough Boy
Addictive Dream
Jacob's Pillow

Mid Race Pace
Sir Billy Wright
Clubland
Greyfriarschorista
Addictive Dream
Jacob's Pillow

There is a bias for front runners at Southwell. Quick starters tend to do well as do runners with mid race pace.

Late Race Pace
Clubland
Greyfriarschorista
Addictive Dream
Jacob's Pillow

According to the speed figures, if Borough Boy improves on or even runs close to his LTO (951) he will win this race. My concern for him is the pace this race will run at and it won't be the start that decides it. The front runners will be tracked at the mid way point by the likes of Sir Billy Wright who may even have the pace to take the lead. He will tail off 2f out but the late stayers such as Greyfriarschorista and *Addictive Dream could have enough pace to challenge, especially given that Borough Boy hasn't proven himself in the final furlong yet. 

Other Factors
There isn't much else in the statistics that stands out. 

Verdict
This race will be won one of three ways;

1. Borough Boy will get the quick start and either have done enough 1f out or will prove himself a stayer.

2. Greyfriarschorista will track the leaders and attack from 1f out.

3. *Addictive Dream will get the quick start and peg it all the way to the post.

Captain Lars is the only other danger I see. He is a cut above some of these in quality, likes the 6f trip and is sitting on a handy mark. If he improves again, he could pose an outside threat. 

Selections
So how do we make a profit from this race? 

Borough Boy - 1pt To Win @ BSP
He is my main contender if he can repeat his recent form. Only the speed raters will back him though so price should drift.

Greyfriarschorista - 1pt To Win @ 5.19
He is my second choice and the main threat to Borough Boy. Currently at 4.90 and I only see this getting smaller so I took the price.

*Addictive Dream - 1pt To Win @ 6.80
This horse has too much potential to be ignored. Already well backed, price could go either way so I took it early.

Jacob's Pillow - 0.25pt Lay @ 5.00 (Unmatched - Keep In-running)
One of the early pace setters who can close in the late stages. He is quick enough to take the lead and perhaps quick enough to get this matched but he isn't quick enough to win this race no matter how well in on the handicap he is.  

Captain Lars - 0.25pt Lay @ 5.00 (Unmatched - Keep In-running)
Laying the 'danger horse' is always risky but his chance in this race can be considered outside at best. He may be a course winner but I don't think Southwell is ideal for him. His pace early will unlikely have him in contention but if he stays on midway, we could see this bet matched. His final furlong pace will be his undoing though. 

Good luck!

SIG