Average Prize Money System

[infinity]

Sometimes I used to try and select horses using stats as average prize money, win rate and place rate and after searching the net about such stats I found a complete system which looked interesting so I though of sharing it. Here it is:

 

"Average prize money won per race can often be an easy and quick indication of a horse's class. This horse racing betting system makes use of that factor.

Here are the rules.

1. Look for races where every runner has had at least six starts.

2. Your candidates are the four horses with the highest average prize money won per race. Find these horses then eliminate some using the following rules.

3. The horse must be no worse than 16/1 in a reliable prepost market.

4. The horse must have run in the first four or no worse than three lengths from the winner at its last start.

5. Ignore 4. if the horse is first up. But it then must have won or run second first up.

6. Eliminate if the horse has a win strike rate lower than 20%.

7. The horse must be starting from no worse than barrier eight after scratchings. (Ignore for straight races.)

8. The horse must have won or placed at the distance of the race or within 200 metres either side.

9. The horse must have won or placed in the day's track conditions. If it is a heavy track the horse must have at least placed on a heavy track.

10. After these elimination rules if there is more than one qualifier in a race back the two qualifiers at biggest odds. If there are three or more qualifiers consider using for quinellas, trifectas, doubles. "

 

1, 2 almost identical to my approach

3  I sometimes look at horses that are between 8/1 and 16/1 as well if they fit the profile and if there aren't any others at bigger odds.

4 Interesting rule, but I don't think I will be using it.

5 I like the idea and I will be using it (Don't know if "first up" jargon is used in UK as well. This is from an Australian website)

6 I like it but I sometimes like to make exceptions, especially when the horse has had less than 15 starts.

7 Could be a good idea but I really don't know, so I will be ignoring it

8,9,10 I like them and I will be using them, except the exotic bets when having more than 3 qualifiers. In such a case, I might check out other stats as well, to help me eliminate some of them. For example I might check for the SP in previous races for the horse to get an idea if he makes good runs when he is not expected to. I also look at the average win  SP for horse, trainer and jockey and look for the same thing: if they have more wins when not expected to, in contrast to when the horse is favorite or anything below 7/1 SP. In other words I might ignore a horse that even though qualifies for all the rules, has had all wins at SP below 7/1.

[em247]

On 10/8/2015 at 1:26 PM, infinity said:

1. Look for races where every runner has had at least six starts.

please explain this