Monthly Naps Comp Wednesday 7th Oct

[chris34]

8.55 Kempton

Not the best card of the week and have to wait to the last race of the day to find my one and only bet of the day. Its not a race to go into too much detail as you can write most of these out on recent efforts and known form.

Circuitous is a risky favourite in my opinion, not won since 2013 off a mark of 74. Has dropped a long way in the weights and has run well last 3 starts on turf. Hasnt raced on the AW since 2012 but was previously useful on it so therefore could be a real threat back around here however isnt going to get a soft lead in this field.

Hellbender is another that is likely to run up with the pace but is also another that hasnt won for sometime but has dropped to a good mark. Been running well off much lower turf mark recently and is well drawn tonight.

Shahrazad has dropped to 7lb below her last winning mark but she is very much an all out front runner and her last win was a 5 runner handicap back April last year, this is clearly more demanding with other pace angles in the race but one to watch this winter for sure as she will pop up n one of these at somepoint.

Queen Zain for me is the most interesting having only her 4^th start to date and making handicap debut after showing some promise in maidens, they have been all on the AW surface so that is not a concern and her opening mark of 55 looks exploitable given the maiden she ran in last time out the 2^nd that day has since gone on to win off a mark of 67 she was 4.5 lengths behind her so potential. Clearly been freshened up for a winter campaign and well drawn tonight in stall 4.

 

1pt win Queen Zain 7/1 coral

[Lodge]

2.20 - Towcester - Ask A Bank 1pt @ 7/1 (Paddypower)

I'm not surprised to see some early money for Ask A Bank who should really be good enough to pick up a race off this mark. He's a maiden from 8 starts and his form is very mixed but the best of it would give him a good chance here. I don't think he ran as badly as his finishing position suggests at Stratford last time, travelling well enough before failing to find much off the bridle he finished a mediocre 7th of 13, hinting a slightly shorter trip may be in order. The form of that race looks solid (3rd and 4th won since) and i'd image that this trip (2m 4f) at a stiff course would suit well.

He's now a further 3lbs lower than his last run and Jamie Bargary claims a valuable 7lbs putting him on a nice low weight for this. He should strip fitter for the run and that advantage may just count against some making their seasonal re-appearance in this.