Large handicap early price system

[slapdash]

A while ago I posted a description here http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12648 of the system I use for my selections on Sports Punter, using information from Betfair place prices to choose runners to back each-way in (mostly) races with short-priced favourites. That system has continued to be fairly successful, but recently I've been experimenting with a variation of the system applied to large handicaps (with 16+ runners, so there's a place return on the first four), not necessarily with a short-priced favourite. Here are the approximate rules: (1) The lay price for a place on Betfair must be at least 20% lower than the place return from the best early price. E.g., if there's an early price of 20/1, the place price at quarter the odds is 5/1, or 6.00. Taking off 20% of 6.00 you get 4.80, so the lay price available on Betfair must be 4.80 or less to qualify. (2) The early price must be at least as good as the price available to back the horse to win on Betfair. I say "approximate" rules, because I'll cheat slightly on one of the rules if the other is more than satisfied. E.g., a horse with an early price of 20/1 that is available at 21.50 on Betfair to win and can be laid at 4.40 to place. Or it's available at 19.00 to win and can be laid at 4.90 to place. If these rules are satisfied, I'll take the best early price EW. It's early days, but I've had a little success with it. Like the old system, the profit so far has come mainly from the place part of the bet, and the win part has been roughly breaking even. I'll start posting qualifying bets on Sports Punter and if I have time I'll also post them here. Unfortunately, it's in the nature of the system that I have to make the selections around mid-day, after the bookies have posted their early prices, and there's a limit to the amount of time I can find for this at work, so it's probably going to be mostly weekends that I post here. Also, I'm going to be busy the next couple of days, so I may not start until the end of the week. In the meantime, any comments? Suggestions?

[slapdash]

Re: Large handicap early price system 12/05/05 First three selections. 4.55 Salisbury Colonel Bilko (10/1 William Hill) 6.30 Carlisle Redoubtable (33/1 Totesport) 7.00 Carlisle The Gambler (33/1 Totesport) I'll keep a record of the ones I post here, starting with a 100 point bank and staking 1 point each-way (2 points total) on each selection. The 7.00 race has only 16 runners, so a non-runner would reduce it to three places, and probably I should avoid it for that reason. But what self-respecting PL member could resist betting on "The Gambler"?