Flat Racing Monday 27th July

[chris34]

7.10 Southwell Tough race to crack, given this is a maiden handicap none of these have any winning form and very few of these have any form on this surface and plenty remain unexposed at this low level. Heaven Eyes made an encouraging comeback last time out at Wolves, trying to make all. Might appreciate this return to a mile however has tried this surface and didn’t show huge amount so needs to take a big step forward. Tancred has a very patchy profile and has something to prove over this trip having shown some promise latest at Kempton over 6f and then again at Brighton. Legal Shark could pop up at anytime given the shrewd yard he comes from typical short price on handicap debut last time out having shown nothing in 3 maidens, yard clearly expecting more and has to be treated carefully if this surface is the key. Tax Reform has put 2 fair efforts in at Brighton this season so far in the visor for the 1^st and 2^nd time, visor remains in play but remains a maiden after 18 starts and looks exposed unless this surface brings about improvement. Moving Upwards made handicap debut last time out and although well held did show some promise finishing well, 2lb lower today and yard remain in really good form. Yet to try this surface though and widest draw of the lot however not always a massive issue around here however surface doesn’t favour hold up sorts unless they can face the kick back so obvious cause for concern. Paladin might be the answer to a tricky puzzle the only one with some course form having finished a distant 2^nd around here last time out after a lengthy absence, that race hasn’t worked out at all really but he clearly still has something to give. Runs off a 1lb lower mark today. Clearly hasn’t been easy to train with plenty of lengthy absences in his profile but should now strip fitter. 2pt win Paladin 7/1 bet365 8.45 Southwell General Tufto is a stalwart around here but you have to wait until he is ready to win which is not easy to predict for all he doesn’t hold his form when he hits it, recent runs don’t offer much hope despite the return to this track. Sofias Number One is another regular around here with 6 of his 7 wins coming around here, hasn’t won for nearly 2 years and despite dropping to a dangerous mark clearly has questions to answer at present. Fire In Babylon isn’t out of this from a handicapping point of view, easy winner at Wolves penultimate start went up 10lb for that win before running a poor race off revised mark. Can go well here and has won around here off a 2lb higher mark so could bounce back. Serenity Now scored by a nose last time out under this jockey in an apprentice race. Goes unpenalised for that win and apprentice is able to claim his full allowance so effectively 4lb better off. Has previously won and always run well here but not an obvious sort to follow up especially at a short price. The value might be in Layline who is another with good course form despite not winning here has placed off much higher marks. He has been in good form recently in sellers and claimers. On a good mark from a handicapping point of view 5lb below last handicap win and could easily run a big race here under Luke Morris. 2pt win Layline 11/2 bet365