ATP Tennis : 29th April 2005

[edtkh]

Haven't started a thread for this week's ATP events as I haven't come across any decent deals and thought it might be better off leaving things till next week's Masters. Nevertheless, I thought there's a very decent bet for a Friday match from the BMW Open that's worth a very serious look at. 10pts Raemon Sluiter to beat Andrei Pavel (2.75 @ William Hill) For me, this has got to be a bet worth maximum stakes as I don't think I've come across such a decent deal for a long while. For starters, I'm no fan of Pavel and I think he's eternally overrated for whatever reasons I have never been able to comprehend. Pavel has qualified for the quarters on the back of narrowly edging out unfancied German Waske 6-4, 6-4 and beating an over-the-hill Sjeng Schalken 6-1, 1-6, 6-1. Sluiter has gotten here on the back of beating Zib(6-4, 6-1) and Davydenko(6-1, 1-6, 6-3). In all fairness, I'd have fancied both players whom Sluiter has beaten to see off Pavel at a canter - hence, how Pavel could even be such an overwhelming favourite here is just beyond me. H2H simply doesn't come into the equation here even though Pavel won the only meeting between the pair 2-1 back in 2000 as that took place some 5 years ago and that was a meeting on grass. Today's Pavel is nowhere as fit physically as the one who played 5 years ago and on the evidence of what I have seen so far, Pavel looks to have a knack of struggling with his movement on clay and so long as his opponents can counter his serves, they're always going to stand a chance. There's very little doubt Sluiter will have more than enough in his reserves to give Pavel a tough game and knowing the Romanian's knack for throwing in the towel when the going gets tough, you've just got to fancy a 7/4 shot whose genuine chance of nicking this is no worse than 50-50, really. Massive, massive value there IMO... :tongue2 Cheers & Good Luck! :ok

[NW1970]

Re: ATP Tennis : 29th April 2005 First set Pavel 6-1.:(