Jump Racing - Monday 10th November 2014

[robertob]

13.50 Carlisle: Novices' Chase (Class 3) - Quite intriguing contest with some interesting runners. However I wouldn't think the short favourite Ifandbutwhynot is part of this group. Yes he has probably the best hurdle form to offer, but his form tailed off completely towards the second half of last season, also I have doubts about him getting the trip, and he doesn't look like chasing is what he is made for. Stopped out looks vulnerable and exposed in this field, so he is also one to oppose for short odds. Sir Mangan is one I really see as the prime contender in this field. A point to point winner in heavy conditions, he won a Novice hurdle in similar conditions, but looked always like a chaser, big strong and jumping bold, as well he has surly the right pedigree for it. He unseated his rider at the third on his chasing debut but was hampered, so a form to forgive. I presume he is fit though, and should relish todays conditions. Unexposed Back To Bracka is another one to be interested in. A Maiden hurdle winner in Ireland in heavy conditions, he looks made for the chasing game as well, the way he jumps and on pedigree. Expect him to improve for his debut over the big obstacles and leave his hurdle form behind. He'll love the ground. Kaikias was a decent point to point horse, without winning though, he is made for chasing too. But I'd keep him in mind for handicaps later on. Premier Grand Cru was a good hurdler and should improve going chasing, but his long absence is a worry. Let's see how he competes today, but potentially he is one to keep an eye on in the future. Sir Mangan @ 5/1 VC - 5pts win Back To Bracka @ 8(1 VC - 5pts win 15.00 Carlisle: Weatherbys Bank Graduation Chase (Class 2) - The presence of last seasons Irish Grand National winner Shutthefrontdoor makes this race a pretty compelling one. The Jonjo O'Neill trained runner has the Grand National as his main target in sight, but it's still a long way to go until then and he gets his new campaign under way tomorrow. He seems to find ideal conditions at Carlisle, with heavy conditions to suit and laying it nicely out for a real test of stamina. Shutthefrontdoor has won over course and distance before and usually goes extremely well fresh. He is an excellent jumper, which is the reason why he take so well to the big fences last season, culminating in the IGN triumph. Geragthy on board tomorrow is another little bonus, and Shutthefrontdoor is expected to be hard to beat. But he faces some good opposition. Vintage Star won this race last year, albeit it was a sightly weaker renewal back then I feel. He goes well fresh too and is a decent, consistent performer, but maybe a level below what one would expect the favourite is capable of performing to. Rival D'estruval has a bit to prove these days, while Alpha Victor should improve from this run. Main rival should be chasing debutante Mickie. A very good staying hurdler, who'll love the ground conditions, he has the right pedigree to do well over the bigger obstacles. It is a tough task to race against Shutthefrontdoor making a seasonal debut as well as racing over fences for the first time, though. And I feel he'll be one who should come on a good deal for this run. After all, I find it hard to look beyond the favourite, who should go really well and probably has too much on his plate with conditions in favour. Shutthefrontdoor @ 2/1 William Hill - 10pts win