Flat Racing - Sunday 10th August 2014

[robertob]

16.05 Curragh - Phoenix Stakes (Group 1): Cracking renewal in my mind. A very deep nine-runners line-up with plenty of strong Group form on offer. The ground makes this contest a bit more intriguing as it naturally already is. We have yielding ground as it is officially described, after a good deal of rain last night - if I look out of my window, I see grey, dark rain clouds, so potentially a bit more is to come. That must count against fast ground horses and anyone who is doubtful to fully get the trip, as the Curragh is such a stiff and demanding track, particularly in the last couple of hundred yards, that the ground can only add to the emphasis on the fact that you need to get 6 furlongs without a question, otherwise you're doomed. Anthem Alexander is the favourite and has done little wrong in her short career. Her success in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot is extremely strong form. The runner-up established herself subsequently as a hugely exciting prospect, while the sixth won a Group 2 subsequently, as well as plenty of others done well since Ascot. Stepping up in trip to 6f shouldn't pose a problem on pedigree. Ground could be a bit of a question mark as there is an awful lot of fast ground form in her pedigree and she didn't do too well on her sole start on anything worse than good, even though that was on debut and the winner of that race a subsequent Group performer. On balance, I feel Anthem Alexander is too short in the betting in this strong field. She may well turn out to be good enough, but it can't be said with full confidence in these conditions. But full confidence would be required, considering her short price tag. Richard Hannon's Kool Kompany is the most experienced horse in this field, as well as top rated. And he has probably the strongest form to offer, on balance. Since he won a Listed race at Naas, he really improved dramatically. A poor ride at Ascot cost him the race there, but he made amends winning the Group 2 Railway Stakes here at the Curragh and subsequently a Group 2 in France. He gets the trip alright, ground shouldn't be an issue - he must rate a big chance today. Question mark is: Can he improve again to land a Group 1 now or might there be something in the field that could be able to improve past him? We'll find out. Beach Belle is a very interesting runner. She won the very first race of the new Irish flat season back in March this year, and while she looked good that day, she looked even better in her second outing as she followed up with a cracking performance in a Listed 6f sprint at Naas in June. The fifth of that race finished a strong 3rd at Royal ascot behind Anthem Alexander subsequently. Beach Belle produced a nice little turn of foot in that Naas race and Chris Hayes didn't need to be hard on her in order to see her winning with authority. She is bred to get further, which should play into her hands in this contest on the demanding Curragh straight, and she clearly gets the ground. The more rain, the better for her. Naturally there is more improvement expected - even though she has to progress further of course, to be competitive today. Cappella Sanservo was a fine runner-up in the Coventry Stakes. His trainer acknowledged that he turned out the colt too soon subsequently when Cappella ran flat in the Railway Stakes. He won a Listed contest at the Curragh before though and should be expected to bounce back today. Ground and trip will be fine, if he is quite good enough is another question. He beat Dick Whittington earlier this season in a close encounter. The O'Brien horse is clearly very talented himself, and won a Group 3 over course and distance last month. While he has form on similar ground as it is today, he might be seen at his best on a fast surface. He also might be found out for speed against pacier sorts over the 6f trip today. Recent Group 3 winner I Am Beautiful takes a step up in class and might not be speedy enough too. She appears to be Aiden O'Brien's third string and while the price looks tasty, it's hard to see her good enough in these conditions. The Great War looked exciting when he won a 5f race here at the Curragh back in May. Since then he was disappointing in two subsequent starts. More or less the same applies to The War Envoy, who has been beaten two times by Kool Kompany this year already, and it is hard to see him reversing this form anytime soon. Johnny Murthag's maiden Kasbah shouldn't be good enough. Verdict: Kool Kompany seems the logical choice with the right form in the book. He is a rock solid chance. He'll run his race and anyone that beats him will win is my suggestion. I'm not entirely convinced by hist short price and think there might be something in this field that could have the ability to improve past him. Beach Belle could be this horse. She is lightly raced and progressed nicely from her maiden success. Conditions are in her favour and she has course form to offer. She has a nice pedigree, and despite a good deal of stamina on her dam side, she seems to have an awful lot of speed too. My only fear is that Jamie Spencer is on board and not regular rider Chris Hayes, since the filly has been sold. However if she is able to improve further, than her current price looks certainly a very big one. Beach Belle @ 6/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 10th August 2014 16.35 Curragh - Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group 3): Maarek is the big favourite here and it is easy to see why. He has the right form in the book and will love any drop of rain in the ground. He remains as good as ever, won the Group 2 Duke of York earlier this year and finished a fine runner-up behind Slade Power over CD here at the Curragh back in May. Saying that, he is not unbeatable and he was less than two lengths in front of An Saighdiur that day, who in contrast to Maarek, made all that day and might used a bit too much energy early on. A 4lb swing in the weights gives him a chance to get a bit closer again today as he loves the mud, so any bit of rain is appreciated, and back over 6f is a plus, as 5f lto seemed bit too short, and he was badly hampered in the closing stages, to beaten in last that day has to be seen in the right context. Not many more with realistic chances here with trip or ground not to suit all of the other five runners in the field. An Saighdiur @ 8/1 VC - 2pts win