Durban July 2014

[robertob]

South Africa's greatest and most prestigious race is almost upon us! R3.5 Million are on offer when on this Saturday the 16 starters are set to thunder down the home straight of Greyville racecourse. A distance of 2.200 meters they all have to master, with the chance to become a racing legend when they cross the winning post. The July this year is highly anticipated with loads of excitement. Because it is an unbelievable deep and competitive field, but also because changes have been made to the race and track itself - the number of starters has been reduced, and the track is now tighter, without a false rail. The creme de la creme of South African racing is unified in this one race. The best three year yo, against the best older horses. It is something of a "super handicap". It's hard to beat the competitiveness of this race. Only the best and highest rated horses make it into the final field - and they all want to run! This mouth watering clash is almost upon us... so hold you breath..... The Field: The Factions: There are three sectors in the race, each with their own passionate support group. The major debate centres around the strength of the 3yo crop, which is seen generally as one of the best in many a year. But don’t we say that every year? The three-year-olds boast 33 wins but 55% of the last 20 years, so things are evenly matched if we take history’s hand as a guide. In the older ranks, the four-year-olds have won it 43 times but 35% of the last 20 years The five year olds have taken the honours 26 times. The females have won it thrice in thirty years. A case can realistically be made for each runner and history may well help point us in the right direction to some degree. But let’s face it, the race does start anew every year, so what does it all really mean? The Achievers: They are: 1978 Politician (57kgs) / 1980 Beau Art (55,5kgs) / 2000 El Picha (58kgs) / 2007 Hunting Tower (55kgs)/ 2008 Pocket Power (58kgs) / 2010 Bold Silvano (55,5kgs) / 2011 Igugu (55kgs) / 2012 Pomodoro (55kgs) /2013 Heavy Metal (59,5 kgs)Since the distance changed to 2200m in 1970, only nine horses carrying 55kgs or more have won. Interestingly the strike percentage jumps dramatically recently, with six of those in the last seven years. Of the twelve trainers with runners, this year, Dean Kannemeyer (2003/2006) , Geoff Woodruff (1999/2000), Sean Tarry (2012/2013), Mike De Kock(2010/2011), Justin Snaith(2008), Glen Kotzen(2009) and Charles Laird (2007) have all had previous success. Mike Bass (2001/2005) is the only trainer to have won it in the 21st century, who has no runner this year. Of the jockeys engaged on Saturday, seven of them have won the race. Anton Marcus and Anthony Delpech lead that race with 4 winners each, followed by Piere Strydom (3), Kevin Shea (2), and then Karl Neisius, Bernard Fayd’herbe and S’manga Khumalo with one each. "Don't be fooled - It's wide open!" - http://www.sportingpost.co.za/2014/07/dont-be-fooled-its-wide-open-gr1-vodacom-durban-july-2014-preview-africas-greatest/ 2013 Race Replay:

[robertob]

Re: Durban July 2014 Let's take a look at the current betting. Sportingbet is the only UK bookie with prices out. However those are pretty competitive, if not even better, compared to what you get with the South African bookies. Particularly interesting the place terms: 5 places and 1/4 odds. Usually you get 1/5 or even down to 1/7 for e/w on RSA races! So this is really good and it is worth to evaluate the field properly, which I will do on a later stage. For now, here are the odds. Triple Crown winner Louis The King tops the market, which is not a surprise, but kind of it is actually, since the long time favourite for this is - in RSA at least - Legislate, who emerged as a superstar as he has won Cape Guineas and Derby. The horse everyone is talking about, Futura was backed heavily, down from initially 40/1 now into 15/2 and even shorter in RSA. Followed y Rake's Chestnut who was unlucky in the Daily News 2000, when he finished 2nd, behind Legislate, while Louis The King followed in third. This is probably the form race to look at and everyone takes different conclusions from it. Would have RC won without interference? Was Legislate running out of steam late and just held on or was he idling, which comes down to ultimate question if he can stay an additional furlong? Can Louis The King improve from his 3rd in that race, running on strongly, as he proved already that he stays further? Can Captain America settle better to have more to offer when it matters?