American Horse Racing Betting

[robertob]

Re: American Horse Racing Betting 11.00 Santa Anita: Santa Margarita Invitational (Grade 1) Small field at Santa Anita for this Grade 1, without a real outstanding candidate, and in general it looks a rather open renewal. Warren's Veneda is trading as favourite at the moment after she looked an improved mare over the last number of weeks. She won two on the bounce, most notably her recent success in the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes. She got the perfect race and ride, trailing the field and making a sweeping move around the home turn to win with a bit of authority. She steps up in trip to 1 1?8 miles for the first time, but has a fair chance to stay the additional distance. A couple in this field try this trip for the first time and that adds to the openness of the contest. The mare I feel is a good deal overpriced is the generally still rather lightly raced Uzziel. She finished runner-up in the Santa Maria, and was fair and square beaten in the end. However she was the one who fared best from the horses up with- or tracking the pace, while the winner and the horses behind her came all from off the pace. The fact that she was able to keep going must give her a fine chance of getting the new trip, as she looked more beaten for speed than anything else. On pedigree, this should suit very well too. That says it is not out of this world that she can turn around the form with Warren's Veneda. And if she can do that, then she'll go very close here today. Uzziel @ 14/1 William Hill - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: American Horse Racing Betting Warren's Veneda with a very strong performance - won the Santa Margarita in great style:

[BillyHills]

Re: American Horse Racing Betting Preekness tonight at Pimlico (11.18pm UK Time) American Pharaoh going for the second leg of the Triple Crown. He's a 4/6 shot and should confirm superiority over stable companion Dortmund who was 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.

[robertob]

Re: American Horse Racing Betting 11.18 Pimlico: 2015 Preakness Stakes Here we are, only two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, there's the second leg of the American Triple Crown right in front of us! Yes, it's Preakness Stakes Saturday, and boy, it promises to be an exciting renewal: the Derby winner, runner-up, third and fifth - they are all here. It's round two of American Pharoah v Dortmund v Firing Line! Of course there is the all overshadowing question: Do we have a Triple Crown winner on our hands? Well, American Pharoah was as good a Kentucky Derby winner as it gets, no doubt about that (though you better don't get me started to talk about the butcher of a jockey Mr Espinoza!). But that doesn't make him a 'wonder horse', as some 'experts' want to make us believe. Anyway, let's stay focused on what is important: Can American Pharoah win the Triple Crown? Nope. No chance! Don't get me wrong, this is a really talented individual. He was the best horse in the Derby, and he won, despite one or two difficulties to overcome during the race. But hype comes and goes quickly. We know that. Once he starts losing, he's already forgotten. Personally I find it hard to believe that American Pharoah is capable of staying the Belmont trip. The facts are against him. He's a dubious stayer on pedigree and the Belmont is traditionally a race where you find some fresher horses in the line-up who are also better suited to the kind of unique test this race provides. As for today, absolutely American Pharoah is the favourite. Though maybe not quite as clear as the betting wants us to believe he is?! Well, maybe he is. But a price of 5/6 isn't really anything more than a fair price. So, do we have alternatives? Derby runner-up Firing Line ran the race of his life. He was gutsy, but couldn't quite hold on. The slight drop in trip may help him. He looks progressive and should be a big contender once again today. If he is quite good enough to beat American Pharoah, who's probably even more fancied to do better over the shorter trip, remains to be seen. I love Dortmund. I stated it quite often in recent weeks. His Derby performance doesn't change that. He ran out of gas and that was always a possibility with the trip not sure to suit. The drop in distance is sure to suit today, though may still stretch him enough. My main concern is the fact that he had already four tough runs this year. It might be time to give him a break. Derby fifth Danzig Moon is a good, tough horse. He always keeps going, though never seems to be really dangerous. That means he's probably not good enough. His only win came in maiden company. A brief look at the betting tells us there's no other horse with a chance in this race..... or is there? Absolutely, there is! The exciting Tapit colt Divining Rod is overlooked. But not by me. I like his lightly raced profile and the fact that he comes into this race fresh off a five weeks break. He won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes in super style last month, which would have entitled him to start in the Kentucky Derby. However he wasn't rushed to be ready in time for the big one, instead connections decided to skip the first leg of the Triple Crown and aim him at the Preakness. He should love the trip and may be able to improve quite a bit. I really like his Lexington performance, He showed gate speed, settled well and one single slight flick with the whip ensured that he went almost effortless into the clear. To my eyes he's the right type to take on the well fancied Kentucky Derby runners. That says It may turn out he is not quite up to the highest level. It may well be that American Pharoah is too good. But we don't know that yet. And with the facts in hand right now, I have to believe Divining Rod is outstanding value. Divining Rod @ 20/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: American Horse Racing Betting Triple Crown winner? American Pharoah has won the 2015 Preakness Stakes by a wide margin last night. The thunderstorm right before the off didn't bother the Kentucky Derby winner in the slightest, he went to work like a machine! Now - will he stay the Belmont trip? That's the big question.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yqKZBSYTAY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yqKZBSYTAY

[robertob]

Re: American Horse Racing Betting 11.50 Belmont: Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) Pretty clear storyline tonight: American Pharoah wins the Belmont and becomes the first conquer of the Triple Crown in ages. That's the theory at least, or what the betting is telling us. Well, in fact many experts were making strong cases for this scenario as well. Pharoah's relaxed attitude, lack of real opposition and so on where all brought up. And rightly so. It would be massive for our sport if American Pharoah could make it happen - the sport needs superstars. Pharoah already is a star, of course. He won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. But win the Triple Crown and immortality beckons. While he was still heavily challenged in the Derby, he hacked up at sloppy Pimlico - but here's the all important question: can he show the same class over in the Belmont Stakes, a race which puts an alien like test to him? Alien like because the 12f trip is a marathon distance for US racing. Something comparable with 2m in Europe. That's down the nature of US racing. Emphasis is on early speed, unlike in Europe. Personally I'm wary. I was sceptical before the Preakness, back then voicing concerns about the potential third leg of the Tripe Crown. American Pharoah doesn't give me the impression to be a stayer. He's speedy and powerful, but on pedigree you would give him very little chance to go as far as 12f. Now, he has the right attitude, he really has! And he usually hits the line strongly - so happened in the Derby and the Preakness - plus there is there general perception of the lack of classy opposition in the Belmont Stakes, which many believe there is just nobody who's capable of beating him. My view is: that all counts for nothing if he doesn't stay the trip. It's that simple. Yes, my heart is with him tonight, all fingers crossed when he enters the home straight. But my money won't be. So let's check out Pharoah's opposition, shall we? I'm a huge fan of Mike De Kock and South African racing, so I'd love to see Mubtaahij running a mighty race. He swerved the Preakness, which was probably the right decision. But I've trouble to see him getting home over this trip. Unfortunately. Derby fourth Frosted is thought to be the biggest danger to American Pharoah. He also comes here as a fresh horse and seems likely to appreciate the trip. He wasn't well positioned at Churchill Downs, staying on well from the back. On pedigree he has a fair chance to stay 12f, but it's not a given either. Tale Of Vale came from a long way back to finish second in the Preakness, albeit still decisively beaten by Pharoah. Not sure if this performance reflects his true ability. He didn't really excel in minor races before. So I'm rather cautious - he might not be able to back it up. Though the longer trip may well suit. Staying on in the Derby was Materiality. A son of Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex, he may appreciated the trip. Whether he is good enough is another question. At least he already is a Grade 1 winner, so can't be easily discounted. Might be an interesting alternative against the red hot favourite. However I find Keen Ice more appealing at a much bigger price. He also didn't go to Pimlico, and is closely matched with Materiality on the Kentucky Derby form, as he finished behind him in 7th. Keen Ice encountered a troubled run, travelling way off the pace. He was hampered and short of room in the closing stages, but finished the race well enough. He's a son of Belmont Stakes runner-up Curlin, who can get offspring capable of staying the Belmont trip, like in 2013 with Palace malice - his stock sometimes needs a while to hit best form as well. Keen ice has some fair Belmont form in his dam line too. That brings me to my final point: the heart is with American Pharoah - if he wins tonight he's to be considered one of the all-time greats. My head and money is with Keen Ice, though, who seems to have good credentials to appreciate the Belmont trip and who looks still a big price, despite some money pouring in for him. Keen Ice @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: American Horse Racing Betting American Pharoah has won the Triple Crown. It took 37 years to happen again. A massive moment of our sport! People started saying it can't be done these days for a variety of reasons. I didn't see myself as a part of the "believers" camp either, thought American Pharoah would fall at the final hurdle, the toughest assignment - the Belmont Stakes. He didn't. One could argue that the race was handed to him to a certain extend, because the other jockeys didn't press him in the Belmont. But that would be unfair to the horse. Pharoah achieved something that so many before him failed to make happen since 1978. The ease he kicked away with in the closing stages showed his true talent. Wonderful to witness: bhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkjG_IkuDYc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkjG_IkuDYc

[petrache]

Hi,Robertob.do you know where i can find speed ratings for international racing?USA,SA,Australia

[robertob]

10.42 Woodbine: Canadian  International (Grade 1)

No surprise to see the Europeans dominating the betting for Canada's major Group 1 on turf. Sir Michael Stoute brings over fast ground loving Cannock Chase who seems to hit top form at the right time of the year. He'll love this track, fast ground and the trip plus first time Lasix administered will give him the edge - he's the right favourite....

..... but at the same time a very skinny price given thathe hasn't fulfilled the promise this season yet. While in good form at the moment, no doubt, it is a big step up from winning at Listed race to go on to win at the highest level. While I have him down as the likeliest winner nonetheless, I can't trust him betting wise.

On ratings and form Luca Cumani's Second Step is the biggest danger, if not the horse to beat. A Group 1 winner in Germany this season, he found the Ledger trip in Ireland a bit too far subsequently but should be more home in this race today. Questions marks arise over his racing style. He's a hold-up horse and it can be difficult to come from the back the field here, particularly on fast ground. No Lasix is a disadvantage too.

Sheikhzayedroad has won a Grade 1 at this venue last season. From a good draw he can't be discounted today either, though he hasn't shown anything this year to believe he is in the same sort of form. He's no price to be overly excited about either.

What's the home opposition like? Modest. And that puts everything said about the Europeans into context. Whether they have the right form on European standards does matter little, given that most US rivals in this field aren't quite up to standard here.

Although two contenders stand out: that is formerly Australia trained Habibi. He made some big progress in recent weeks, landing a Stakes race here at Woodbine in August and following up with a big runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes. He came from the back off the field that day and with a slightly clearer run my have finished even closer than the final 1/2 lengths margin behind Interpol.

This Interpol is here today too, and in my mind is by far the most intriguing contender, even more so given his rather enormous price tag. He's a late bloomer but really has hit the ground running in recent months. He caused a huge upset in the Grade 2 Sky Classic over 10f here at Woodbine, but proved this wasn't a fluke when following up with a gutsy win in the Northern Dancer.

This four year old English Channel colt looks a very genuine, tough sort, who battles hart once in front. He always held the charge of Habibi last month, despite being in front for the whole long Woodbine home stretch. He usually races more up with the pace, which should be an advantage today on fast ground. Question mark is whether he can overcome his wider than ideal draw.

If he can, and the past has proven he has gate speed, he'll be right up there when it matters. Whether he is good enough against the Europeans remains to be seen. But he's a huge price and by no means deserves to be four times the price of favourite Cannock Chase.

Interpol @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[robertob]

7.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

Aiden O'Brien has two very strong contenders in a race he has won twice in the past. Hit A Bomb is probably the strongest candidate of the two Aiden saddles -  the colt scooted home at Dundalk when last seen after he got off the mark on his debut. Clearly a very talented individual, he would be very hard to beat if he hadn't been drawn in the car park. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic. It won't be easy.

Soft ground is detrimental to the chance of Ballydoyle's second string, Shogun. He drowned at his only try in really soft conditions, however looked special when winning a maiden at the Curragh on good to yielding ground - similar to what is expected at Keeneland's turf track today. 

Whether he can perform on this sort of ground to a level that is required to be competitive in in top race like this remains to be seen - but connections hailed this colt as a special one not so long ago. I really liked his performance at Longchamp earlier this month when he finished  strongly in a race he meat plenty of in-running trouble. He wasn't far beaten in the end behind Cymric, who finished a close runner-up that day and is one of the leading fancies here again.

Shogun has a good draw and I would hope to see him being ridden positively as the trip shouldn't be a problem. He looks a colt we haven't seen the best of yet and I believe he is underestimated. 

Shogun @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts Win

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8.50 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)

A wide open race for the juvenile fillies. Aiden O'Brien saddles the favourite with progressive Alice Springs. There is plenty to like about her: draw is handy, trip will suit this Galileo filly, fine form in the book. Question mark is the ground. It's likely to be tacky. We have to see if that really suits her.

Harmonize was a nice winner of the Grade 3 Jessamin Stakes here at Keeneland recently. She encountered a wide trip and did well to win from where she came from. Interesting though that the horse beaten in second by half a lengths seemed to have a more ideal run visually, but in fact only saved a neglectable amount of ground according to Trakus figures. 

The runner-up that day was Sapphire Kitten. A very lightly raced filly. That was only her second career start and she travelled really nicely. She seemed to be outstayed eventually, but that means the slight drop in trip to 1m will suit today. How she copes with the ground is a question for all in the field - on pedigree she has a fair chance to handle it just fine. At 16/1 she is a nice value play in this field.

John Gosden has brought over talented sprinter Illuminate. Already a Group 2 winner and excellent runner-up in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, she has obvious credentials to land this race if her stamina lasts. I'm not all that confident in that in the ground conditions.

One that doesn't seem to get any love is formerly in Ireland trained Last Waltz. She's having his first start in the US today after showing plenty of promise in his native country. She was a close 3rd in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh when last seen, where showed plenty of early speed and was just beaten in the dying strides. That encourages me to believe that she can overcome her wide draw here. 

The ground won't be an issue either I believe. Given that it is drying all the time, she should be okay. On pedigree the step up to 1m will suit her well enough too and first time lasix can only be a positive - so at 20/1 she is quite a big price. 

One more to mention is Catch A Glimpse. A two times winner on turf, she is likely to be up with the early pace from a good draw and may well improve if she can cope with the ground. 

Sapphire Kitten @ 16/1 VC - 5pts Win
Last Waltz @ 20/1 WIlliam Hill - 5pts Win

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9.35 Breeders' Cup Distaff (Fillies' Grade 1)

You can't fault Wedding Toast - she is the clear and fair favourite to land the Distaff. Two Grade 1's on the bounce, both in utterly impressive fashion. Only question is: can she bring her top game to Keeneland? She finished 4th in her only start at this track last year and has a clear preference for Belmont. 

What are the dangers? Got Lucky has to be one. The dramatic winner of the Grade 1 Spinster won't mind a poor draw as he usually comes from behind. He'll need a lot of luck though if he wants to do it again here, this time in an even deeper field. 

Classy Sheer Drama has got a poor draw, which could be detrimental to her chances. She won two Grade 1's this year and clearly has to enter calculations. But with the track an unknown, and the draw against her, others may make more appeal. 

The pick of the three year old's is clearly I'm A Chatterbox. I'm a big fan of her I have to admit. She is gutsy, honest filly, but one who poses tons of talent. She usually travelles well thanks to her ability of an outstanding cruising speed and once in front doesn't let go. 

She won the Grade 1 Cotillion when last seen after finishing second twice as well as third in her last three starts the top level - though if not for a crazy demotion in the American Oaks, she would have two Grade 1's victories to her name now. 

I'm A Chatterbox has been on the go for a while now, and that is a concern. So is the draw. From box one it's never easy but she showed plenty of early pace in the past so I'm hopeful she can get out of this easily. If she has still something in the tank then it's hard to see her not being involved when it really matters here, given that she has won at Keeneland before. 

I'm A Chatterbox @ 8/1 Paddy Power

[owenclass]

Breeders Cup winners

Hit a bomb

Liams map

Catch a glimpse

Stopchargingmaria

Bailoutbobby

Edited October 30, 2015 by owenclass

[owenclass]

Breeders Cup winners

Songbird

Mongolian Saturday

Wavell Avenue

Stephanies Kitten

Runhappy

Tepin

Nyquist

Found

American Pharoah