2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts.

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Only 2 weeks to the big day, so time to get this sorted by using alternative trends. Firstly, some trends have remained constant over the 26 years I've looked at, and secondly, things changed bigtime in 2000 when the Irish, or moreso, the Irish Breeding Industry began producing high class colts. 15 of the last 26 winners had the word quickened in at least 1 of their previous races according to the race reader. Quickened indicates class. Of the other 11, 5 had already shown their class by having already won at group 1 level. 6 of the 7 Irish winners since 2000 had not had the word quickened in any of their previous races write ups, though 4 of them had won a group 1 and the other 2 a group 3, so effectively, if betting an Irish horse it must have either quickened or won at at least group 3 level. Oath (poor renewal) was the last non irish horse, not to have quickened in 99. 22/26 winners had a strike rate of at least 50%. Since 2000, the SR is at least 66% for 12 of the 14, the other 2 horses had a sr of 50%. 25/26 had already won a race by at least 1.5 lengths. Sinndar was the exception, though he was already a group 1 winner. 23/26 had a sire with a stamina index of at least 9.0. It's 13/14 since 2000.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Of the 27 runners still declared, 66% have failed on the quickened rule. In general, Irish race readers tend not to be as " exitable " as his British counterparts, when it comes to the words quickened, rapid headway or burst clear, so proven at at least group3 level will suffice for Irish horses. British horses must have quickened in at least 1 of their race write ups. The remaining 9 are Australia, Ebanoran, Geoffrey Chaucer, Karakonite, Orchestra, Fascinating Rock, Sudden Wonder, Toast Of New York and Western Hymn.