AFL Rd. 3.

[TazaD]

Western Bulldogs WIN (~1.73) How Richmond continue to be over-rated is utterly beyond me. Yes, they did beat Hawthorn last week (for their first win in 15 games), but Hawthorn dominated the game! The Hawks had 7 more inside 50's and 6 more shots at goal, but inaccuracy hurt them and Richmond kicked the last 2 goals of the game to steal the win. Richmond's defense is AWFUL, allowing Hawthorn 29 shots at goals last week, now face the Bulldogs who have had 68 shots in 2 weeks. No 2 game winning streak for Richmond! Sydney +20.5 Sydney have a very good recent record against the Lions, winning 3 of the last 5, including @ Brisbane in 2003, and a 2 point loss @ Brisbane last season, and a 32 point win @ Sydney last season. In the 2 point loss @ Brisbane, the Lions kicked only 11 goals...5 of which came from players who won't be playing in this game. Their key forward Brown wil be out until Rd. 6 so they should struggle to score against this tough Sydney defense. Sydney are very efficient in their forward line, having a shot at goal every 1.62 times they enter their 50, which is the best in the League after 2 weeks. Sydney are a real chance for an upset here, and 20 points looks generous. Adelaide +19.5 The local derby b/w Adelaide and Port Adelaide is always close. In the last 7 meetings (since 2001) Port's greatest winning margin is 25 points last season, on their way to winning the Premiership. Currently missing from their team on that day are: Peter Burgoine, 25 possessions. (suspended) Josh Carr, 26 possies and 6 tackles (Freo) Byron Pickett, 12 possies and a goal (suspended) Also Hardwick, Schofield and Shaun Burgoine. Neither team has started the season in any great form, but amazingly Adelaide have had more (1) shots at goal and only 2 less inside 50's than Port. They've also rebounded better, converted chances better and had more clearances! Again, 19 points here looks very generous indeed. Essendon/Carlton double (1.97) Both teams playing very poor opposition. Great odds, particularly Carlton @ ~1.50!

[mattsthebest]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Your tireless work is much appreciated by me Taza, great work as usual. Looks like some excellant picks this round. Regarding Sydney, I think there worth backing h2h @ odds of 3.0+. Brisbane's midfield is really struggling with injuries at the moment, and both games so far have proven that they will struggle to stay competitive over 4 quarters. Sydney have some very good taggers, and trying to beat them while not 100% fit is a big ask.