Cricketing Capers

[swooperman]

What I'm aiming to do here is have a system that incorporates all my bets on cricket, generally test matches, but would include other bets on one-dayers & also possibly county matches. Obviously, being in England we are just shy of the season proper, but there is plenty of international cricket in April to keep me interested. Ive never done one of these before, so anybody interested please bear with me, but I hope to prove that the in-running test match market can be very useful & hopefully lucrative, using just intuition, statistics & a feel for the game. What I would do at the start of the test match is to back 1 or possibly 2 of the 3 possible results, set up a profit margin & work within it, steadily trying to reduce the risk as the game progresses & the market fluctuates. In Other Sports there are some very good, if sparsely used, cricket threads, although obviously they are busier when England are playing, & I aim to keep my waffle in there, whilst giving (hopefully succint) breakdowns of the reasons & strategies for the bets in here. The best way of understanding this is to read one of the threads, India v Pakistan being the most suitable, but to try & prove this I will do a breakdown here of what I did in the 3rd IND-PAK test which finished today: Starting Prices: India 11/10. draw 5/4. Pakistan 9/2 India - 13 pnts staked - 10pnts @ 11/10, 2pnts @ 10/1, 1 pnt @ 14/1 - Total Liability - 13 pnts. Pakistan - 18.5 pnts staked - 5pnts @ 9/2, 5pnts @ 13/5, 5pnts @ 13/8, 2pnts @ 13/5, 1.5pnts @ 6/1. - Total Liability 18.5 pnts. Connected bets - 7 pnts staked - 2pnts @ 2/1, 5pnts @ Evs. Total Liability - 7 pnts. Returns - Pakistan won - 18.5 pnts staked - returned 76.3pnts. both connected bets won - 7pnts staked - returned 16 pnts. so final totals were: 38.5pnts staked - 92.3pnts returned - profit of 53.8pnts In the first test I made a profit of 10pnts, & the second a loss of 5.5 pnts, but I stress I did not play those tests as intensly as the 3rd. I will start with a bank of 100 pnts, & obviously this is a FREE STYLE SYSTEM. The timetable I will work to is: 31/3 WI v SA Test 2/4 IND v PAKI odi 4/4 NZ v SL Test 5/4 IND v PAK odi 8/4 WI v SA Test 9/4 IND v PAK odi 11/4 NZ v SL Testt 12/4 IND v PAK odi 15/4 IND v PAK odi.....& so on, so you can see there is plenty to be going on with. I will not guarantee playing every game, but its a safe assumption I will probably play each test match at some point. What has to be borne in mind is that as well as playing at the start of the match, I will play in-running at not much notice, although I generally look at close of play each day, but there may be a price I can not ignore during the day. Also bear in mind that if I place a bet at large odds, ie India @ 14/1 it does not necessarily mean I think they will win, it means that in certain circumstances they could mount a comeback & if Ive took that price then I'm covered for that eventuality, & I have a larger profit margin to play with. I could of course just keep lumping on my first choice, but then i have no cover, & I am trying to prove that you can play like this & cut down the risk, rather than putting all my eggs in one basket. Remember test cricket is played over 5 days. I am using real money on this system. As mentioned, I am using a 100pnt bank, & i will rate my bets between 1-20, if anything is bigger I will point it out at the time. Please bear with me on this, it will explain itself as time goes on. Along with all the normal System stats, I will keep stats on individual matches & series as we go on, also I might do a seperate stat as I could have 5 bets on 1 outcome whilst working within the margin of 1 other bet, & the one bet wins, leaving me in profit, but with a 5:1 losing ratio, which is going to make me look like a muppet whilst I am winning, if you see what I mean :hope Anyway, I'll leave it at that at the moment, the first test starts thursday (31/3) but may be slightly ropey as a lot of rain around, but we'll see. If anybody has any queries, please comment, & if any of the mods need anything that Ive missed, please ask.

[mr onemore]

Re: Cricketing Capers Nice one:ok Good luck with this - as haven't seen a cricket one here yet. I like the idea of in-running bets that are in slow motion as it were. Time to work things out. So I'm looking forward to your test-match bets. It's the weather aspect that puts me off cricket bets - do you have to think about that much at the start of a test-match?