How do you compile odds for a tennis match?

[loco23]

Hi Guys, I'm hoping i can get a good discussion started about this subject, and at the same time bring my own ideas of wisdom. Compiling odds by yourself is obviously a great thing to do, especially if you can do it accurate enough to find value. I realise there are people who have been ex-odds compilers at UK bookies and then left their jobs to become full time punters (why not heh?), most likely because they have the right probabilities and techniques learned from working at the bookie to compile and look for weaknesses in bookmakers themselves. To skip to the chase here i'm on a voyage of trying to find out the best way to price up a tennis match (pre-match), and although i have had moderate success in doing so, i believe the hardest thing to price up is the rankings between the players, and the advantage the ranking has on the matchup. Shown below is a spreadsheet i have worked on over the past week. It's fairly simple, and after many attempts it's the best one i have managed to make. To use the spreadsheet you simply enter your data into the blue boxes, everything else is simply calculated for you. The way the spreadsheet works is for career, surface, head to head and last six matches, it takes the wins and losses and simply finds percentage of wins for that criteria. For instance, if one player had 100 wins and 20 losses his win percentage would be 80% in that particular criteria. At the end of entering all of the data into the boxes, the spreadsheet simply tots up all the percentages and brings out the probability and odds for both players. When using the spreadsheet you should start with the favourite player (or the highest ranked) and put that at the top half of the spreadsheet and the underdog at the bottom half. The reason it does this is because my formula (or math) for the spreadsheet simply finds the % difference in ranking and times it by 0.1. Again this is probably the weakest part of the spreadsheet, and although most of the time it does price up matches fairly accurately, it's probably not as accurate as i'd like. The main reason being for this is that it manages to price up closely ranked players well, but the wider the margin between the players, the less accurate the odds are, but maybe someone can help with this. If anyone has any questions feel free to post here, but the main aim of this thread is for me to get other ideas on how i can improve the compilation of odds, especially when taking ranking into consideration and how it can effect the pricing up of a match. The file was created using open office but might open in excel too. http://uploaded.net/file/em81dj9r

[loco23]

Re: How do you compile odds for a tennis match? Does anyone have an answer for this? what is a good basic way to compile odds for a tennis match?