Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football)

[Guest]

Hello all :D Some of you may already know me, I have been on PL for about 2.5 years and have decided to start working on my own strategies based on some things I have noticed when watching football. I am looking at using statistical methods to quantify some of my thoughts on the game. The first of these is the difference between weekday and weekend games, and the influence this has on results. There are a few things that I want to look at: 1. Does weekend vs weekday affect the 1X2 distribution? 2. Does the performance of favorites change between weekend and weekday games? 3. Does this affect goals scored? 4. Further break this down into midweek (i.e. busy schedule) and Monday / Tuesday night games. My rationale behind this is that strange things seem to happen in the non-week games - again, this is just a feeling I get from watching a lot of Premier League football over many years. I have studied 1. and 3. for two seasons so far and will have a comprehensive list by the end of the week - it takes about 30m per season. So far the main thing coming through is that the chance of a home win is reduced in midweek games (-5% 12/13, -16% 11/12) Im going to look back at least 5 seasons to see if this is a common thing. I then need to look at the odds and see if the price reflects this or not, if not then there may be value here! Once I have come to a conclusion on this I am going to begin forward testing for these games and I will track it over the season. As I am new to this any help would be appreciated, I'm having issues finding reliable odds data for this, the BP% is something ridiculous like 80% which makes it hard to work with and I don't really trust it. Does anyone know if something like this has been done before? Essentially on what I have looked at so far, if the 1X2 odds are similar on weekend / weekday games then there could well be value in laying the home team in midweek games. I think that the analysis on favorites will be interesting too, but we will see. Feedback would be great, and if anyone would like my spreadsheets I'm happy to share them on the condition that any changes and advice are noted in this thread :)

[aliando]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) Have thought about looking into this in the past but never have enough time to start. Have also wondered about effects of televised games on weekends (ie Sat lunch/evening, Sunday games and Monday night games). Will be interesting to see what happens here :ok