Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football)

[Guest]

Hello all :D Some of you may already know me, I have been on PL for about 2.5 years and have decided to start working on my own strategies based on some things I have noticed when watching football. I am looking at using statistical methods to quantify some of my thoughts on the game. The first of these is the difference between weekday and weekend games, and the influence this has on results. There are a few things that I want to look at: 1. Does weekend vs weekday affect the 1X2 distribution? 2. Does the performance of favorites change between weekend and weekday games? 3. Does this affect goals scored? 4. Further break this down into midweek (i.e. busy schedule) and Monday / Tuesday night games. My rationale behind this is that strange things seem to happen in the non-week games - again, this is just a feeling I get from watching a lot of Premier League football over many years. I have studied 1. and 3. for two seasons so far and will have a comprehensive list by the end of the week - it takes about 30m per season. So far the main thing coming through is that the chance of a home win is reduced in midweek games (-5% 12/13, -16% 11/12) Im going to look back at least 5 seasons to see if this is a common thing. I then need to look at the odds and see if the price reflects this or not, if not then there may be value here! Once I have come to a conclusion on this I am going to begin forward testing for these games and I will track it over the season. As I am new to this any help would be appreciated, I'm having issues finding reliable odds data for this, the BP% is something ridiculous like 80% which makes it hard to work with and I don't really trust it. Does anyone know if something like this has been done before? Essentially on what I have looked at so far, if the 1X2 odds are similar on weekend / weekday games then there could well be value in laying the home team in midweek games. I think that the analysis on favorites will be interesting too, but we will see. Feedback would be great, and if anyone would like my spreadsheets I'm happy to share them on the condition that any changes and advice are noted in this thread :)

[aliando]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) Have thought about looking into this in the past but never have enough time to start. Have also wondered about effects of televised games on weekends (ie Sat lunch/evening, Sunday games and Monday night games). Will be interesting to see what happens here :ok

[MPLouis]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football)

My rationale behind this is that strange things seem to happen in the non-week games - again' date=' this is just a feeling I get from watching a lot of Premier League football over many years ... [b']So far the main thing coming through is that the chance of a home win is reduced in midweek games (-5% 12/13, -16% 11/12)

I've noticed that there seem to be surprise results in general in English football in midweek games rather than weekend ones.

[jtw1]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) I've always been wary of betting midweek in the English leagues ...have always suspected there's a difference between those games and those played at the weekend [Fri-Sun] ..esp as i usually concentrate on Homes

[skycity]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) Agree, look forward to see more results! Good luck.

[agraham]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) i think it has something to do with the crowd.People have more time to travel at the weekend,so the midweek crowd will usually be smaller.This may have an effect on the players performance.

[MPLouis]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football)

i think it has something to do with the crowd.People have more time to travel at the weekend' date='so the midweek crowd will usually be smaller.This may have an effect on the players performance.[/quote'] On the other hand you could argue that the number of away fans will be smaller in midweek, which should make it easier for the home team

[allthethings]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) These numbers only reflect matches in which the favorite has odds of

[allthethings]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) Oh...one more thing...my "weekday" stats include Mondays and Fridays, too.

[Matthew]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) Across a sample of 48,012 matches: DAY OF WEEK [TABLE=align: center]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]DAY OF WEEK[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Monday[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£39.31[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£114.40[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£181.69[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,857[/TD] [TD=align: right]45.99%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.60%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.41%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.12%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.16%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.78%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Tuesday[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£420.19[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£102.92[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£315.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]5,949[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.02%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.04%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.95%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.73%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.30%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Wednesday[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£54.47[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£165.59[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£32.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,111[/TD] [TD=align: right]45.33%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.96%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.71%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.58%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.84%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.53%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Thursday[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£2.91[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.99[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£40.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]345[/TD] [TD=align: right]44.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.41%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.54%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.84%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.29%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-11.64%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Friday[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£120.66[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£23.28[/TD] [TD=align: right]£16.90[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,391[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.92%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.53%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.55%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-8.67%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.67%[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.21%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Saturday[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£1,196.35[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£1,979.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£1,384.11[/TD] [TD=align: right]28,514[/TD] [TD=align: right]45.16%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.53%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.30%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.20%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.94%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.85%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Sunday[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£123.39[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£666.48[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£380.08[/TD] [TD=align: right]7,845[/TD] [TD=align: right]45.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.91%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.44%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.57%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-8.50%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.84%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] There is a couple of percentage points different, except Wednesday? Go figure.... Using Tuesday --> Thursday: Overall Results [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]BOTH TEAMS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 11]UNDER & OVER X GOALS[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]TO SCORE[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]U 1.5[/TH] [TH]O 1.5[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]U 2.5[/TH] [TH]O 2.5[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]U 3.5[/TH] [TH]O 3.5[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]U 4.5[/TH] [TH]O 4.5[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]OVERALL[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£477.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£267.52[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£387.64[/TD] [TD=align: right]8,405[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.64%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.53%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.83%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.68%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.18%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.61%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]51.99%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]26.81%[/TD] [TD]73.19%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]51.96%[/TD] [TD]48.04%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]73.38%[/TD] [TD]26.62%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]87.41%[/TD] [TD]12.59%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] DIVISION [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]DIVISION[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]German Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£14.39[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£46.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]£56.54[/TD] [TD=align: right]147[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.86%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.01%[/TD] [TD=align: right]40.14%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-31.95%[/TD] [TD=align: right]38.46%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English Premier League[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£23.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£5.65[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£93.50[/TD] [TD=align: right]716[/TD] [TD=align: right]45.95%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.96%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-13.06%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English Championship[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£139.28[/TD] [TD=align: right]£19.87[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£81.41[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,771[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.29%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.31%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.40%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.86%[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.12%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.60%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English League 1[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£88.56[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£99.32[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£56.64[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,567[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.84%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.99%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.16%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.34%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.61%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English League 2[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£132.69[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£33.85[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£57.79[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,511[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.49%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.46%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.05%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-8.78%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.82%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English Conference[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£83.81[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£14.80[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£106.64[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,392[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.10%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.66%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.02%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.66%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]French Ligue 1[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£28.34[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.05[/TD] [TD=align: right]235[/TD] [TD=align: right]45.53%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.96%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.51%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.13%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-12.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.28%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Italian Serie A[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£1.12[/TD] [TD=align: right]£31.86[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£99.09[/TD] [TD=align: right]400[/TD] [TD=align: right]46.50%[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.50%[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.28%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.96%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-24.77%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Scottish Premier League[/TD] [TD=align: right]£2.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£61.31[/TD] [TD=align: right]£60.41[/TD] [TD=align: right]402[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.54%[/TD] [TD=align: right]22.89%[/TD] [TD=align: right]34.58%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.64%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-15.25%[/TD] [TD=align: right]15.03%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Spanish Primera Liga[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£6.82[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£29.01[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£19.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]264[/TD] [TD=align: right]50.76%[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.86%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.58%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.99%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.41%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] SEASON [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]SEASON[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2000/01[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£43.31[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£45.80[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£51.77[/TD] [TD=align: right]489[/TD] [TD=align: right]46.01%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.20%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-8.86%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.37%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.59%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2001/02[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£15.62[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£39.77[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£72.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]549[/TD] [TD=align: right]46.63%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.78%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.59%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.85%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-13.11%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2002/03[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£18.65[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£39.70[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£23.01[/TD] [TD=align: right]448[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.97%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.16%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-8.86%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.14%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2003/04[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£36.85[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.28[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£40.76[/TD] [TD=align: right]349[/TD] [TD=align: right]44.13%[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.56%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.37%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-11.68%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2004/05[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£45.35[/TD] [TD=align: right]£41.10[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£55.41[/TD] [TD=align: right]367[/TD] [TD=align: right]41.42%[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.70%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.89%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-12.36%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11.20%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-15.10%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2005/06[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£48.58[/TD] [TD=align: right]£17.28[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£58.65[/TD] [TD=align: right]547[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.90%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.87%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-8.88%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.16%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.72%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2006/07[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£35.74[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£58.14[/TD] [TD=align: right]£15.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]620[/TD] [TD=align: right]44.19%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.29%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.52%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.76%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.48%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2007/08[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£82.67[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£53.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£20.01[/TD] [TD=align: right]798[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.98%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.19%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.82%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.36%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.69%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.51%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2008/09[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£65.38[/TD] [TD=align: right]£4.63[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£59.22[/TD] [TD=align: right]674[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.73%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.78%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.49%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.70%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.69%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-8.79%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2009/10[/TD] [TD=align: right]£43.67[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£124.74[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£6.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]773[/TD] [TD=align: right]46.44%[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.80%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.75%[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-16.14%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.82%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2010/11[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£37.94[/TD] [TD=align: right]£34.88[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£55.09[/TD] [TD=align: right]770[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.99%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.70%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.31%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.93%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.53%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.15%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2011/12[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£34.47[/TD] [TD=align: right]£2.54[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£20.84[/TD] [TD=align: right]754[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.10%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.84%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.57%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.34%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.76%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2012/13[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£46.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£26.54[/TD] [TD=align: right]£82.53[/TD] [TD=align: right]821[/TD] [TD=align: right]41.17%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.31%[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.52%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.62%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.05%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£10.52[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.82[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£22.41[/TD] [TD=align: right]446[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.72%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.58%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.70%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.36%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.02%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] MONTH [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]MONTH[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]August[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£30.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£31.80[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.30[/TD] [TD=align: right]525[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.10%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.67%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.85%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.58%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]September[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£7.75[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£73.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£116.43[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,066[/TD] [TD=align: right]46.53%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.83%[/TD] [TD=align: right]26.64%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.73%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.90%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.92%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]October[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£114.96[/TD] [TD=align: right]£34.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£2.17[/TD] [TD=align: right]877[/TD] [TD=align: right]41.51%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.99%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.51%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-13.11%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.95%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.25%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]November[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£56.70[/TD] [TD=align: right]£48.92[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£44.74[/TD] [TD=align: right]595[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.18%[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.42%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.39%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.53%[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.22%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.52%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]December[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£66.01[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£96.55[/TD] [TD=align: right]£70.08[/TD] [TD=align: right]983[/TD] [TD=align: right]42.73%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.04%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.72%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.82%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.13%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]January[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£49.41[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£20.47[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£109.63[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,067[/TD] [TD=align: right]45.27%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.63%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1.92%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.27%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]February[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£50.63[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£26.08[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£71.51[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,070[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.64%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.66%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.69%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.73%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.44%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.68%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]March[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£44.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£43.82[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£58.29[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,264[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.28%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.37%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.35%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.50%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.47%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4.61%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]April[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£43.32[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£22.88[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£73.88[/TD] [TD=align: right]706[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.91%[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.90%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.19%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.14%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-3.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.46%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]May[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£13.82[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£35.84[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.63[/TD] [TD=align: right]252[/TD] [TD=align: right]43.25%[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.41%[/TD] [TD=align: right]33.33%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5.48%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-14.22%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.22%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] MAX HOME WIN ODDS BAND [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]MAX HW ODDS BAND[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]= 1.25 - = 1.50 - = 1.75 - = 2.00 - = 2.25 - = 2.50 - = 2.75 - = 3.00 - = 3.50 - = 4.00 - = 5.00 - = 6.00 - = 7.00 - = 8.00 - = 9.00 - = 10.00 - = 12.50 - = 15.00 - = 20.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£2.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£2.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.35[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]100.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-100.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-100.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.50%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]No Odds Data[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]44.44%[/TD] [TD=align: right]22.22%[/TD] [TD=align: right]33.33%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] MAX AWAY WIN ODDS BAND [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]MAX AW ODDS BAND[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]= 1.25 - = 1.50 - = 1.75 - = 2.00 - = 2.25 - = 2.50 - = 2.75 - = 3.00 - = 3.50 - = 4.00 - = 5.00 - = 6.00 - = 7.00 - = 8.00 - = 9.00 - = 10.00 - = 12.50 - = 15.00 - = 20.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£0.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]£2.21[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£23.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] [TD=align: right]86.96%[/TD] [TD=align: right]13.04%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.61%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-100.00%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]No Odds Data[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]44.44%[/TD] [TD=align: right]22.22%[/TD] [TD=align: right]33.33%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.00%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Matches Contained In The Above Summary Statistics only the 50 most recent matches are shown [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH]SEASON[/TH] [TH]DATE[/TH] [TH]HOME TEAM[/TH] [TH]HOME GOALS[/TH] [TH]AWAY GOALS[/TH] [TH]AWAY TEAM[/TH] [TH]RESULT[/TH] [TH]MAX HW ODDS[/TH] [TH]MAX DR ODDS[/TH] [TH]MAX AW ODDS[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-13[/TD] [TD=align: center]Chester[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]Halifax[/TD] [TD=align: center]H[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.80[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.40[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.60[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-12[/TD] [TD=align: center]Arsenal[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]Man Utd[/TD] [TD=align: center]D[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.20[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.61[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-12[/TD] [TD=align: center]Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]Liverpool[/TD] [TD=align: center]A[/TD] [TD=align: center]8.00[/TD] [TD=align: center]5.25[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-12[/TD] [TD=align: center]Newcastle[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]4[/TD] [TD=align: center]Tottenham[/TD] [TD=align: center]A[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.30[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.50[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-12[/TD] [TD=align: center]Stoke[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]Swansea[/TD] [TD=align: center]D[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.30[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-11[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bolton[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]Burnley[/TD] [TD=align: center]A[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.00[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.42[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.62[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2013/14[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-11[/TD] [TD=align: center]Brighton[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]Leeds[/TD] [TD=align: center]H[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.61[/TD] [TD=align: center]4.69[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bankroll Management Statistics [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Longest Winning Sequence[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Longest Losing Sequence[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Minimum Returns[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£479.37[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]-£304.46[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]-£475.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Occurred After x Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]8,404[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]7,618[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]6,986[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Maximum Returns[/TD] [TD=align: right]£3.35[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]£2.20[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Occurred After x Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]59[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Upcoming Matches For Your System [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH]DATE[/TH] [TH]DIVISION[/TH] [TH]HOME TEAM[/TH] [TH]AWAY TEAM[/TH] [TH]HW ODDS[/TH] [TH]HW BOOKMAKER[/TH] [TH]DR ODDS[/TH] [TH]DR BOOKMAKER[/TH] [TH]AW ODDS[/TH] [TH]AW BOOKMAKER[/TH] [TH]LAST UPDATED[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2014-02-18[/TD] [TD=align: center]English Championship[/TD] [TD=align: center]Sheffield Weds[/TD] [TD=align: center]Derby[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet 365[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.50[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet 365[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.38[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet Victor[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-17 22:15:12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2014-02-18[/TD] [TD=align: center]English Championship[/TD] [TD=align: center]Wigan[/TD] [TD=align: center]Barnsley[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.62[/TD] [TD=align: center]Coral[/TD] [TD=align: center]4.10[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet 365[/TD] [TD=align: center]6.75[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet 365[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-17 22:15:12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2014-02-18[/TD] [TD=align: center]English Championship[/TD] [TD=align: center]Yeovil[/TD] [TD=align: center]Watford[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.60[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet 365[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.50[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet 365[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=align: center]Bet 365[/TD] [TD=align: center]2014-02-17 22:15:13[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] and the rest...............

[allthethings]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football) I know I'm showing my ignorance, but how can the returns be negatives all the way across? Some results are less bad, and none are profitable? It does look as though home sides win fewer matches on Mondays and Fridays than on other days...that's the TV effect?

[Matthew]

Re: Weekend vs Weekday Analysis (Football)

I know I'm showing my ignorance' date=' but how can the returns be negatives all the way across? Some results are less bad, and none are profitable?[/quote'] I think this is a good demonstration of why you "never see a bookie on a bike". They are good at what they do. Very good. Offering odds in all these markets and across all outcomes, even at close to 100% books, it is hard to find profit. Home sides win 45.99% of the time on Modays, this is actually the highest HW% of them all. Fridays, you are correct to highlight, a strike rate of only 42.92% is the lowest of all the days in the week. If you look across the yields of all outcomes (HW:-5.68% , DR:-3.18% , AW:-4.61%) you'll see that this aligns very closely to the overround on an average market. Hence my stating that the bookies do a damn fine job to navigate all these markets and still come out on top.