Flat Racing - Sunday 7th April

[robertob]

14.45 Curragh: Sea Shadow @ 11/4 Bet365 - 4pts win Can't have the short priced favourite here but think Sea Shadow is a really interesting prospect. She finished a very strong 3rd in a hot maiden at Leopardstown last year in her only start to date. The race was won by the promising 1.000 Guineas candidate Big Break who won later the year a Group 3 at the same track, while the eventual 4th, Rehn's Nest, is also a Group 3 winner now since winning the Park Express Stakes two weeks ago at the Curragh. So it's very strong form and Sea Shadow showed a nice attitude that day as she didn't have the clearest of runs in the home straight but kept going and fighting to the line. Good ground is probably key to her and therefore should be conditions in her favour today. Trainer P D Deegan wasn't too badly in form in recent weeks, so she should be fit and well for this race here today. 15.20 Curragh: La Collina @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win La Collina couldn't really confirm last year the promise of her 2yo season, she performed well enough on many occasions in Group 1 company though. She ran a huge race on her seasonal reappearance in the 1.000 Guineas last year, finishing a fine 5th. It followed two lesser efforts at the Curragh but then she ran well enough in Group 1's at Leopardstown in the Matron Stakes and later in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket. She drops down into Group 3 company for her seasonal reappearance this year and I think she is clearly the class act in this field considering that she's the only Group 1 winner in this field, back in her 2yo days when she beat Power in the Phoenix Stakes here at the Curragh over 6f. While she might not developed into the absolute top class fill she's still a very good one and very much capable of winning against this bunch of horses, particularly with the conditions in favour, as she really needs decent ground to be seen at her best and connections took her out of the Park Express Stakes two weeks ago at the Curragh when the ground was awful. If it would be just about getting a run into her they could have let her take her chance in the race, but the fact they waited for this race tomorrow on decent ground suggest they really want to win this. 16.50 Curragh: Captainofthefleet @ 16/1 Coral - 1pt win This is such a poor race there must be a chance for an outsider and I feel Captainofthefleet could spring a surprise. He is surprisingly lightly raced for a 6yo and should be fit through hurdling. He finished 6th in a big maiden hurdle - even though a long way beaten - last month. On the flat he showed some promise as a 2yo and 3yo getting placed on his first four starts in maidens and winning a Limerick maiden eventually in 2011. He was a long way beaten on his seasonal reappearance last year but finished a decent enough 5th to Ursa Major in a Handicap after that of a 7lb higher mark than the current one. A 2m Handicap at the Galway Festival proved way too hot for him and his next start came in December when he finished 2nd in a maiden hurdle until he appeared the next time at the racetrack, which was his most recent start then. So he showed some promise on a few occasions and is down to a very low mark, good ground should be helpful as well today and therefore he could run a good race here I feel. 17.20 Curragh: Timikar @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win This looks a very hot maiden with three very interesting prospects in the line-up. I feel the favourite Hudson's Bay is way too short being odds-on though. His form to Lines of Battle is outstanding, yes, and Bolger is flying, but the horse is wearing a combination of tongue strap and cheek pieces for the first time today, which is worrying in my mind. So there is a chance that he is a very tricky ride and that could open the door for the nicely bred Ruler Of The World, who might be not 100% on racecourse debut today though, and very much Timikar. The John Oxx trained colt is lovely bred too. Sired by top class stallion Dynaformer, out of the Group winning mare Timarwa. Timikar showed some promise on his debut last year at Leopardstown over a short 7f trip, when he ran green and with a bit of an awkward head carriage, he also had to turn wide for home, found himself there a bit in a pocket and a real battle for position. The eventual winner looked smart and kicked easily away at this stage while Timikar didn't have enough speed to answer this challenge, yet he finished his race really well in the end. He should improve from this experience and very much so from the step up in trip. 10f looks the perfect trip on pedigree and good ground should be key to his chance. Thanks god there wasn't a drop of rain in recent days here and the ground at the Curragh is absolutely perfect today. Only real concern is if he's fit for the race, but as John Oxx won this race last year I would assume so. Overall Timikar looks the value for me at the current price in this really interesting maiden.