Flat Racing - Monday 25th of February

[robertob]

14.50 Kempton: Amana @ 7/2 Bet365 - 4pts win This 9yo mare looks well ahead of the handicapper at the moment I feel, thanks to her slipping mark after a couple of poor performances. She probably would have taken advantage of her low rating already last week if the race would have been ran a little bit more to suit. She was travelling super well in rear but it soon became clear that it could be a difficult task from this position as the race was ran at a crawl for a long time. And indeed the over the course of the race mostly in second racing Time Square won the race in the end. Amana in contrast had loads to do turning for home and was also locked on the inside almost until approaching the 2f marker. When she got racing room she made stylishly headway, running on in very impressive fashion under a strong hands and heels ride finishing much the best of all to take 2nd place in the end. Only a horse in good shape that is well handicapped would be able to finish a race in that way under these circumstances. It's a big field again tomorrow and it's easy enough to encounter in-running trouble in these sort of field sizes but there is no doubt that she has a couple of pounds in hand and that hopefully is sees her finishing this race on top in the end. 16.20 Kempton: Prince Of Burma @ 13/2 Ladbrokes - 2pts win Prince Of Burma was very unlucky on his most recent start at Lingfield one month ago. He travelled much the best but didn't get a run whatsoever in the closing stages. The way he travelled indicates that he's poised to win soon which confirms the look of his actual handicap mark which looks handy enough again. He didn't win for over a year but he's 3lb below his last winning mark now. He also showed some decent enough performances in better races of higher marks, so there is no doubt that he can be competitive in a class 4 handicap like this which looks not overly strong anyway, apart of the Botti horse which might be still ahead of the handicapper. But if you take that one out I'd say Prince Of Burma is the one to beat, so if the hot favourite fails for whatever reason, Prince Of Burma will be right there I hope. 17.30 Wolverhampton: Rockgoat @ 12/1 - 2pts win Rockgoat is well overpriced in my mind. This Rock Of Gibraltar son looks frustrating but in the same way he's coming down to a very handy mark on the back of a decent performance and is also not overly often raced yet, so there is some hope for him I feel. His most recent 3rd place, however quite a way beaten, is better than the bare form might suggest. It was a strange ran race from a pace angle I thought and the front-running/prominent racing Rockgoat was taken on for the lead 2f after the start by the later on badly fading Fighter Boy. Rockgoat was also a bit keen but travelled still very well approaching the home straight and was there in with every chance but was then baldy hampered by the eventual 2nd. He lost his rhythm but held on for 3rd place, a long way clear of the rest of the field. God knows what have happened with a clear run. Anyway, he gets another pound off the mark for this effort, Graham Lee is booked for the ride, not for nothing I suppose, and after Rockgoat had to carry probably too much weight throughout the whole last year after a decent maiden win, he should be now competitive of his current mark in a race like this.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Monday 25th of February 2.20 Kempton This is extremely poor race and the favourite is rightly very short but does give some E/W value in the race. Tidy Affair won with ease in an amateur handicap at Wolves a week ago over this trip, he was ridden by an accomplished pony racing jockey that day who was able to claim 7lb, so he is effectively 13lb higher with penalty but can be expected as big rise in handicap given how far he had fallen and could easily walk away with this again. Celtic Charlie hasn’t been so good in recent starts but starting to slip in the weights but does still find himself 4lb above last winning mark. Crimson Monarch makes some interest having returned to form on recent starts, travelled quiet well before finding the trip a bit too far drops back in trip today and a basement mark is exploitable given previous form off higher marks. 1pt e/w Crimson Monarch 8/1 pp 5.30 Wolverhampton Spinning Ridge is reliant on a strong pace although this trip also stretches him at best so is not an obvious sort in this sort of race given there also doesn’t look many front runners or prominent runners. Tatting is less exposed than most, drops in trip today a worry but blinkers for the first time may just help bring out a little more in him yet but 7/2 looks short enough in a competitive race. Maggie Pink may get a soft lead in this but has struggled off revised mark having won 3 starts back, they have all been over 7f and this step up in trip a concern having previously shown very little over this sort of trip. Chosen Forever is going the wrong way rapidly and despite a rapidly plummeting mark needs to show more to be of interest. Kieltys Folly is proving hard to win with despite returning to form recently, only beaten by a gambled winner last time out with first time visor on, that is retained today and runs off same mark so has every chance and it looks between this yards runners who also run John Potts. John Potts has taken a few runs to come to hand this winter but stepped up markedly to go down by just a neck with cheekpieces refitted, up a 1lb for that effort but remains dangerously well handicapped if backing that effort up having won off 12lb higher mark, has won around here 6 times and is well drawned to take usual prominent role. 2pt win John Potts 7/1 hills