2005 Super 12

[Citizen Kane]

Antepost Odds (Competition Winner): Brumbies 3.75 Stormers 20.00 Crusaders 4.00 Bulls 22.00 Blues 4.00 Reds 30.00 Waratahs 9.00 Sharks 40.00 Hurricanes 9.00 Highlanders 40.00 Chiefs 20.00 Cats 150.00 My thoughts on the season – Blues Strong out wide with a lot of flair players scattered amongst the team. On their day could tear any of the other teams apart. That aside the competition is a fair grind over 12 weeks and things don’t go well at any stage I struggle to see where the backbone of the team and toughness will come from, only player I would put in this mould is Justin Collins. Have a good draw with six home games, stay in NZ till round 9 and host both of last years finalists. A lot will depend on how Steve Devine and Carlos Spencer play, Rush leads and how they utilise McAllister. Even with my comments I expect them to make the top four. Chiefs No real “marquee†players and most of the better players injured (Willis, Robinson, Sivivatu) or just back from injury (Kelleher, Gibbes, Lowen). Very suspect tight five, especially with Robinson out and really just a team of honest battlers who will struggle to make top half of the table after coming fourth last year. Coupled with a bad draw of first three games away as well as playing both of last years finalists and the two strongest SA sides away they will need a great home record to even end up midtable. Much as it hurts I can’t see this being a very good year for the Chiefs. Hurricanes Another team with a lot of flair players who are suspect when the heat is on. A good team to back when underdogs as sometimes the flair brings a result when least expected i.e. Odds have drifted above $3.50. Their season will depend on what they can get out of their first three games – all away, with games 2 and 3 minus their captain Umanga who is playing the Tsunami game at Twickenham. Have averaged 8^th over the history of Super 12 and is probably where I’d place them this year. Crusaders The most consistent team over the first nine years, Champions four times runners up twice. Good squad depth with really only Brad Thorn out from last year and Rico Gear, Leon McDonald and Norm Maxwell back. Only five home games but have historically travelled well so don’t expect that to be too much of an issue. Match winners in Merthens and Carter in the team surrounded by good to very good players. Few weaknesses in the squad and only possible negative is coaching with Deans as head and backs coach with Penney and Cotter the forward coaches. If you go with a coaching staff of three I would have preferred to see a head, back and forward coach. Prefer to see a head coach who can relate to forwards but just a personnal preference and expect to see the Crusaders in the top four. Highlanders Good test of the depth (or lack of) in NZ rugby now with so many second tier players overseas. Positives are six home games and a strong front row of Hoft, Hayman and Oliver. Negatives are 12 new squad members and the fact that Carisbrook is no longer the fortress it once was. Believe a middle/lower position is the best they can look forward to. Between the Chiefs, Hurricanes and Highlanders it will be interesting to see if the depth can still support a fifth side in the competition Waratahs Usually have a good squad but lacked consistency e.g. only team to beat both of last years finalists but finished 8^th. Six home games this year and only three match away streak is split by the bye. Quality squad with a glaring weakness at standoff and I believe it is impossible to win this competition without a good pivot in form. If someone can stand up they could be there at the business end but I expect them to come up just short. Reds Some great players e.g. Flatley, Latham but squad depth looks suspect which doesn’t auger well for the Australian expansion side next year. Somehow manage to beat the Waratahs each year on the back of the interstate rivalry but don’t have a good draw this year with 5 home games and rounds 2to4 in NZ. Last year 10^th and may improve 1or2 places on that at best. Brumbies Australia’s most consistent side averaging around third over the last nine years. Champions twice and runners up three times. Only 5 home games but travel well (pattern here for successful teams), rounds 4to7 in NZ and SA will test them. Roff and Bartholomeusz big losses but have good sqad depth. Important note is the “player power†in this setup. It was strong enough to get coach Nucifora sacked last year even though they won. In my experience player power is all well and good when things are going well but has a large potential to implode when things get rocky. Nucifora now with the Blues so that matchup will be interesting. Bulls Very strong forward pack and both coach and players have just come off third straight Currie Cup win. Five years of 11^th or 12^th followed by two 6^th places in last two years. Historically bad travellers with first 5 games away from the stronghold of Loftus Versfeld. Even so I expect them to be there or there abouts and with the Stormers should be competing for the fourth playoff spot. Stormers Third last year and have bulk of the tri-nations winning Springbok team. Potentially great loose forward trio of Berger, Van Niekerk, Watson and great midfield of DeWetBarry and Joubert, but tight five look suspect. Tough start with the Aussie/NZ trip starting round two but good run home so if close will be strong challenges for a playoff spot. Question mark on how tired there players are after a lot of international rugby last year. Sharks Five home games, four in a row from round two will determine how successful their season will be. Compulsory quota of 8 coloured players may have weakened this squad more than others. Also Ollie Le Roux a big loss so personally expect them to struggle this year. Cats Last three years 11^th/12^th/12^th. First 5 games at home and could pickup 3 from 5. Beefed up pack with Ollie Le Roux but have lost Hall, Bobo and Habana amongst others. Feeling that team will capitualte when going gets tough so expect a bottom three finish. At this stage I believe Crusaders, Blues, Brumbies and either the Bulls or Stormers will makeup the top four. Hurricanes and Chiefs to do worse than antepost odds, Stormers and Bulls better and the rest about right. Cheers CK

[Citizen Kane]

Re: 2005 Super 12 Odds Round One (NZ TAB): Highlanders v Blues 3.00 1.35 Waratahs v Chiefs 1.27 3.50 Stormers v Sharks 1.40 2.80 Brumbies v Crusaders 1.50 2.50 Reds v Hurricanes 1.90 1.85 Cats v Bulls 2.60 1.45 Bets for Round One Waratahs HT/FT v Chiefs 1.62 2pts Stormers HTH v Sharks 1.40 2pts Bulls HTH v Cats 1.45 2pts Fairly conservative bets until I have seen the teams in action for a few weeks. Good luck to all. Cheers CK