Flat Racing - 26th of January

[robertob]

14.20 Kenilworth: Cape Royal @ 9/2 Sportingbet - 2pts win Grade 1 action from South Africa, it's the Cape Flying Championship over 1.000m and what a cracking renewal that is! Usually this is not my type of race but I can't resit a small bet on Cape Royal who looks to have a burden of potential. Hot favourite is obviously What A Winter, the highest rated horse in South Africa and a horse that does unbelievable things over 1.200m. However he's very much beatable over the shortest of trips, in fact he's got beaten more often than not over 1.000m as he's two from six here. Nonetheless he won this race in 2011 and finished runners-up in 2012, but the big question mark this time around is not only the distance but very much his well-being. His trainer tried - again unsuccessful - to show the world that WAW can stay the mile trip when he contested in the Grade 1 Queen's Plate two weeks ago. He had a very hard race that day and finished well beaten in the end, because he simply is not a miler. This race might have taken allot out of him, and it is a big ask to contest in a super competitive Grade 1 over 1.000m just two weeks later anyway as the drop in trip must be a worry. I'm a huge fan of WAW, no doubt, but think he's to take on at very short odds here. Everyone is speaking about the sprinting wonder Via Africa at the moment. This 3yo filly is super fast, she's won all her last four start, trashing her opposition. She is a potential star, but it is a tough ask for her stepping up into G1 company for the first time, also racing against males for the first time in her career. She isn't favoured by the weights as well and therefore it would take an absolute wonder performance from her to win this. I think this comes a bit too early for her. If she wins it she must be a wonder horse indeed, though. The rest of the field doesn't really look to have a chance here, apart of Cape Royal, which brings me to my selection. Cape Royal has a huge chance here I feel. He's a 3yo colt and almost equally progressive as Via Africa is, he's lightly raced and won four of his seven starts, is unbeaten in three now and looks to have a burden of potential and is of course very speedy. His most recent start was the real eye-opener though, when he contested in a very strong and competitive Pinnacle Stakes. He kicked on 400m from the finish, producing and instantaneous turn of foot but was badly hanging to the left 200m from the finish then and it looked as if he would throw away the victory as a result of that. He found back the balance though, and kicked on again, finding another gear to win even easily in the end only hands and heels ridden. He clocked a very fast time as well and could have been even faster obviously. He surly can improve again and if he does so then he could be the horse they all have to beat tomorrow I feel. 17.00 Wolverhampton: Dundrum Dancer @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win I thought this mare showed a very impressive performance in her most recent race at Wolverhampton after coming back from a 2 month long break. She was a 40/1 shot that day but certainly didn't run like one as she was travelling strongly in mid-field on the inside turning for home and found plenty when asked for an effort. She finished a decent 2nd in the end, just beaten by the lightly raced winner who was probably well handicapped that day. For Dundrum Dancer it was the first time over the 9f trip and while she showed two decent performances in the summer last year at Brighton this was probably her best performance so far. Earlier in her career she showed some promise in Ireland, finishing placed in some decent races, but so far she found it impossible to put her head in front. This could change tomorrow as she should be in great shape with the recent run under her belt, she is competitive over course and distance and while her mark went up 2lb it looks a wise move to give promising 5lb claimer WT Davis the ride. This race here tomorrow looks competitive but I think Dundrum Dancer will be in with a big shout nonetheless and 6/1 looks to be a shade to big in my mind.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - 26th of January *Salute To Seville > Wolverhampton 5:30 > WIN @ 3/1 VC BOG* Only horse in the field that has a course win to it's name, and that was over course and distance last time out, where it dead-heated with Amelia Hull. Still lightly raced and should still have more improvement. Is only up 3 pounds for that success, and this is a weak enough race tomorrow. It wears blinkers again tomorrow, which were on for it's win last time out. I thought this one would be favourite, so it's nice to see a backable price of 3/1.