Flat racing - Tuesday 22nd of January

[robertob]

13.00 Scottsville: Themis @ 12/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win Interesting little race in which the second De Kock runner Themis looks to be the forgotten horse. This lovely bred Master Jet filly is very lightly raced and completely unexposed over the 1.500m trip and should improve for the step up in trip actually. She showed two decent performances over sprinting distances until she opened her account with a decisive 4 lengths victory here at Scottsville when she made all from the front and won almost in a canter. She looked to have a touch of class that day - even though running against some poor opposition - but was then put away for the rest of the year and appeared after a lay-off of half a year at Greyville on New-Years day again at a racetrack. She was right up with the pace early on there until fading in the final 200m, but I think this performance is completely forgiveable as she was off the track for a long time, it was over the probably too sharp 1.200m trip, it was a rain softened track that day as well and she had to carry a huge weight (61kg!). So plenty of excuses and if you ignore this form you have a horse that should be much fitter now and that looks a very talented one actually. She can race off a very light weight here with only 51kg on her back in this race and 12/1 looks a huge price in my mind. 16.20 Turffontain: Top Command @ 5/1 Sportingbet - 3pts win The odds-on favourite Brooks-Club might be hard to beat on pure form as he showed some cracking performances in some top class races, however he finds it very hard to get his head in front, regardless of the class of the opposition he's running against. He was odds-on three weeks ago in an even weaker race than this here actually is, and he failed to win, while even being favoured in the weights there. So that means he is opposable once more here and that could open the door for the 3yo gelding Top Command. Connections probably didn't take the decision lightly to geld him as he cost some money as a yearling but clearly didn't run to what he's capable of in his first two career starts. He looked so much better when appearing at a racetrack for the first time after being gelded in late November last year as he won a big maiden race in good style by more than 3 lengths while clocking a pretty decent time. He should improve dramatically from this run and could be potentially the most talented horse in this race. He surly has more to offer on what will be only his fourth career start and he receives 2kg from the favourite as well. 17.10 Wolverhampton: Imaginary World @4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win The form books tells a clear story: Imaginary World is a very frustrating horse. Only two wins in 39 starts looks pretty poor. However I feel she clearly showed some promise in her most recent start here at Wolverhampton when she had just everything against herself. It started already badly after leaving the gates when she was bumped and forced to lose position, and it continued in the home bend when he was simply locked on the inside and had to wait until approaching the home straight to try and make some headway, what she did eventually quite stylishly and she appeared to be a big threat until she found her way being blocked at the furlong marker. When she was badly hampered again shortly afterwards her chance was completely gone, yet she finished still a very decent sixth just 3½ beaten in the end. The way she travelled through the race clearly indicated that she's in fantastic form now and very well handicapped after slipping down to a more than handy looking mark - in fact she never ran off such a low mark in a Handicap before. As she's allowed to race of the same mark again tomorrow I really think she must have a huge chance in this race here, that looks a much weaker contest than the last one anyway.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - Tuesday 22nd of January *Imaginary World > Wolverhampton 5:10 > WIN @ 4/1 Bet365 BOG* If this horse can't win this race off this mark, there is something wrong. If it comes back to near it's best, it has to win this race for me, although it does have a low win strike-rate. It is a course and distance winner, however, and interestingly wears eye-shields and blinkers tomorrow, a sign that they are trying? Graham Gibbons has been known for being a "job jockey", so I like the fact he is riding this horse. It is now running off 60, 16 pounds below it's last winning mark, so is extremely well treated, although that win off 76 was on turf. It was travelling very nicely when blocked off when attempting to stay on last time out, and finished a close 6th of 12, and if it gets a clear run here, it has a massive chance.