Flat Racing - Wednesday 16th January

[robertob]

13.30 Kenilworth: Sweet Trip @ 8/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win Many quite exposed types in this field so the lightly raced Sweet Trip makes some appeal on Handicap debut. He got off the mark last month at the second time of asking, finishing strongly over 1.200m here at Kenilworth. He was badly outpaced in the middle part of the race but ran on very well to win it on the line. The step up in trip to 1.400m will be obviously in his favour and of a lenient mark off 74 he could have a very good chance to win this, also very much thanks to the weight for age allowance which really helps allot, ass he's receiving 4.5kg from his older rivals. Another interesting fact is that the Cormack/Snaith partnership a wonderful 31% strike rate enjoys. 14.10 Kenilworth: Shimmering Flame @ 8/1 Sportingbet - 3pts win As you can probably easily ignore the first three at the top of the weights in this field as well the last two at the bottom of the weights it narrows the gap of possibilities in this race massively. Grasp Your Destiny looks a worthy favourite but by far not a clear one and judged on past performances it might pay off to stick with the veteran Shimmering Flame who slides down in the handicap mark and looks primed for a big run. He looks very well weighted here as he didn't run of such a low mark for almost two years and showed in early 2012 a range of top class performances in competitive races of very big weights. So he won for example a decent handicap of a weight of 62kg over 1.400m and went after that pretty close in top races of huge weights due to being rated a MR 96 horse at that time. He's down to a mark of 93 now and has got allocated a weight of 58.5kg in this race which could be lenient after actually two decent performances after a break of three month. Champion jockey Karl Neisius is booked for the ride and that surly means business for Shimmering Flame tomorrow who finds all the right conditions for a big performance here as he runs over his favoured distance of 1.600m at his favoured racecourse (6 from 8 career wins [all CD] came at Kenilworth). 17.45 Kempton: Vitznau @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win Vitznau doesn't get any younger and is now winless for quite a while but the last time we've seen him on a racetrack, in November here at Kempton, he looked as if he would regain some of the old sparkle when he travelled super well on the bridle until almost 1f out and finished in a good fashion to take the 3rd place. The first three came a good deal clear of the rest of the field and this form works out very well indeed, so it looks fair to assume that even of a 2lb higher mark he might be now very well handicapped again. I wouldn't really mind the break since November and think that from a good draw with Kirby booked he might be very hard to beat tomorrow.