robertob's South Africa Thread

[robertob]

Usually this time of the year when things get a bit dreary in Ireland and UK on the flat with day in and day out only the same three or four tracks to bet on I love to look over to South Africa where the season really kicks off with some great racing. So as the name of the thread already says this one will be dedicated to RSA racing only. Usual point system of 1-10 points for the bets. 12.40 Kenilworth: Jet Aglow @ 16/1 Sportingbet - 1pt win The Grade 1 Maine Chance Paddock Stakes looking a wide open contest with not too many obvious chances in my mind. Beach Beauty is the obvious favourite, though, as she had a good prep beating the boys in a competitive race and therefore should go very well here but she is a very short price indeed and not that clear a favourite in my mind. I don't get warm with most of the rest of the field unlike the 3yo Jet Aglow. This Jet Master filly is lightly raced and despite having won only two from six starts yet it has to be said that she improved allot in the last number of weeks. She finished a strong fifth in the Grade 2 Choice Carriers Championship here at Kenilworth in November 2012, having been only beaten three lengths over the 7f trip. She stepped up in company and distance then, racing in the Grade 1 Cape Fillies Guineas one month later, finishing an excellent 3rd to the highly regarded Rumya while running the fasted time of the field for the final 2 furlongs in that race. The step up to 1.800m looks logical now. Her trainer was quite bullish regarding her chance in this race here recently and this goes along with a decent draw. I can't see why she is a 16/1 chance as with further improvement expected and the right form in the form book she should run a huge race. 14.50 Kenilworth: Variety Club @ 11/10 Sportingbet - 7pts win The Grade 1 Queens Plate involves some good horses this year but they all have to beat the wonderful Variety Club who is almost unbeatable over the mile trip. He's the crowned horse of the year 2012 thanks to some stunning performances and being unbeaten in his last five starts. He's been beaten over 1m only once in seven starts yet but this defeat is more than a year ago now and Variety Club improved through 2012 immensely. He's surly the class act in the field and only the wide draw could beat him here I feel. He's drawn in 15 (14 runners) but as he usually jumps quickly out off the gate I don't think this has to be really a problem. Jackson is thought to be the biggest threat here but there is no doubt that he is much better over further and was already beaten twice by Variety Club over 7f and 1m convincingly. I also think this race will be rather used as the stepping stone for the J&B Met for Jackson, one of the biggest races of the calender, which will be run in three weeks time over 2.000m and which is the main target for Jackson for what he is the 2/1 favourite (an excellent price btw. in my mind). Pomodoro is a thread on form obviously but it looks a tough task based on the weights as he's to race of 60kg like Variety Club as well. What A Winter is a superstar in the sprint sphere but this trip stretches his stamina a bit too much. The rest of the field has actually loads to find on the ratings to Variety Club and that brings me down to the decision to go big on this wonderful miler.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's South African runners... Variety Club - what a SUPERSTAR! Must be the best miler around worldwide at the moment. Just stunning. Overcame the widest draw, stormed out off the gate, took the lead, found the extra when the other big guns put the pressure on... won easily in the end. Brilliant! :notworthy Almost a 100% start for the thread as Jet Aglow finished a fantastic 2nd! Found just the short favourite Beach Beauty too good...