NFL: Divisional Round picks

[Samba_SamPa]

My 1pt bookie donation to kick the thread off ;) ... No in-depth reasoning behind this, they're all dogs, I don't 'expect' any of them (bar the Packers perhaps) to even win their game... BUT... in each case it wouldn't be a huge huge shock were it to happen. So, without further ado... Green Bay to win by 14+ pts @ 17/2 Baltimore to win by 14+ pts @ 30/1 Houston to win by 14+ pts @ 33/1 3 x 0.2pt singles, 3 x 0.1pt doubles, 0.1 pt acca - all with Paddy Power If it all comes in, that 1pt stake will return 1333.35pts :loon :lol :hope

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Divisional Round picks Denver -9.5 @ 1.97 pinnacle Denver -16.5 @ 2.98 centrebet Denver -23.5 @ 5.55 centrebet Denver have been exceptional at home, as they have won 7 of their 8 games, as they have scored 30+ points in each of their 7 wins, (and 25 points in the loss to Houston), with QB Manning passing for 3 TDs in each of his last 6 home games, with just 3 INTs in total at home. Only Houston has thrown for more than 260 yards in Denver, and they are the only team to have thrown for more than 2 passing TDs in that game. In the running game, they ran for 94 yards against a tough Pittsburgh rush defence; 59 yards against Houston; 165 yards on Oakland; 225 yards on New Orleans; 133 yards on San Diego; 91 yards on Tampa Bay; 118 yards on Cleveland and 172 yards on Kansas. So their run game has complemented their passing game, and has been used effectively to break up their options on offence, so that they do not just pass on every down. Their rush defence has been exceptional, as they have not allowed more than 100 rushing yards in any of their home wins while Houston was the only one to rush for 152 yards. Baltimore went 4-4 on the road, losing 24-23 at Philly; beating Kansas 9-6; losing 43-13 at Houston; won 25-15 at Cleveland; won 13-10 at Pittsburgh; won 16-13 at San Diego; lost 31-28 at Washington and lost 23-17 in Cincinnati. They only once threw for more than 232 yards in these 8 road games, and that was against Washington, while they allowed 371 passing yards to Philly; 256 passing yards to Houston and 272 passing yards to Washington - with these 3 teams the only one's you would consider to have better than average QBs (note: Big Ben from Pittsburgh was injured when they played them). In the rushing game, they had 100+ yards in 6 of their 8 away games due to the inability of QB Flacco to get the passing game going, so the likes of RB Rice had to become a bigger factor in these games. Their rush defence allowed 129 yards to Philly; 214 yards to Kansas; 181 yards to Houston; 116 yards to Cleveland; 137 yards to Pittsbugh; 91 yards to San Diego,; 172 yards to Washington and 47 yards to Cincinnati who struggled to get any sort of offence going in the last few games. Also, Denver beat Baltimore 34-17 in Baltimore, with Manning throwing for 204 yards and 1 TD, while they also ran for 163 yards, while Flacco had 254 passing yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT, while they managed just 56 yards on the ground. If Manning manages his 3 TDs at home, and they run for 100+ yards, which they should given their form running the ball at home, and Baltimore is allowing 100+ yards on the road, then hard to see how Baltimore stays close to them. Flacco has his problems on the road, so Rice gets more touches running the ball, but he may fumble again like he did last week, and especially against a side that rarely allows opposing teams to run for more than 100 yards, then hard to see how Baltimore keeps this close. Denver in a blowout. Green Bay @ 2.30 pinnacle Green Bay -2.5 @ 2.80 centrebet Green Bay -9.5 @ 5.65 centrebet Green Bay are healthy, both on offence and defence, and are poised to continue their good form of late as they have won their last 5 games. They will rely once again on QB Rodgers to get their offence moving even though they run game has shown some life, with 100+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 6 games. Rodgers has thrown for 3+ TDs in 5 of his 8 road games against teams like Houston, St Louis, and Chicago with good secondary's. Defensively, they have allowed 1 passing TD in each of their last 5 games, and just 11 TDs in their 8 road games, while they have managed 7 INTs in their last 5 games, and 9 INTs in their 8 road games. Besides twice allowing 200+ yards to Minnesota, they managed to allow them to rush for 167 yards last week which was an improvement from previous meetings with them. They allowed 127 rushing yards in Seattle; 119 yards in Indy, 90 yards in Houston; 108 yards in St Louis; 54 yards in Arizona; 110 yards in Detroit and 147 yards to the NY Giants and 83 yards to Chicago, so take away the Minnesota games, and they have not been blitzed by any other run-first side. Now San Francisco will be another tough battle for them, but with Woodson back, they look much more solid stopping the run. San Francisco have Kaepernick at QB and he will use his legs, with RB Gore, to cause this Packers rush defence some problems. They have run for 120+ yards in 7 of their 8 home games but this has also been against some ordinary rush defences. Detroit (148 yards); Buffalo (311 yards); NY Giants (80 yards); Seattle (175 yards); St Louis (183 yards); Chicago (123 yards); Miami (155 yards) and Arizona (129 yards). Only Seattle, and Chicago to a lesser extent, have good rush defences, so while they should get some yards running on GB, doubt that they will get more than 150 yards to keep them in the game. Their passing game has seen 7 TDs in their last 5 games, but 4 of them were against New England when they were chasing the game and needed to pass rather than run more. Apart from that, Kaepernick has been good but not great, and up against an opportunistic secondary that was ranked 7th for INTs, and that was with several key players out, then he will need to rise to the occasion. On defence, their pass defence has been excellent and only St Louis, with 315 yards (and 2 TDs) has come to SF and passed for more than 230 yards. And their rush defence has been equally very good, only allowing NY Giants (149 yards); Seattle (136 yards) and St Louis (159 yards) to rush for more than 100 yards at home. If GB's running game can get some yards and not be reliant on the passing game, then Rodgers should have some more time to play with, otherwise SF will drop extra players in coverage. These two teams met in Week 1, where SF beat QB 30-22 in Green Bay, as GB had 303 yards (2 TD, 1 INT) while SF with Smith at QB, had 211 yards (2 TDs). GB ran for just 45 yards while SF had 186 yards. Given this, you would expect SF at home, to do even more damage. However, get the feeling that SF were much more prepared and ready for this game than GB was, as GB are a team that prefers to work their way into form during the season, so they peak when the playoffs arrive. Expect them to have a different view and be much more prepared for SF, and if they manage to minimise the yardage that SF gains from on the ground, then doubt that their inexperienced QB can get them moving, while GB have a top QB with an improving run game, and with their variety of options at WR, can see them causing SF some problems, much like the NY Giants did. Furthermore, GB is ranked 4th in sacks while SF are 14th, while SF are 24th in sacks allowed and GB is 31st. If SF can't get to Rodgers then he should have time to pick his targets while GB has Mathews, who had another two sacks last week and expect him to harass Kapernick all game Playoff Record: 3-1 (+2.55)