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** Congratulations to Imavillan who wins £250 in the Last Man Standing II Competition **

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Hello, Here is my math and statistical WTA Tennis model that predictes probability of tennis players. After probabilities are compared with bookie's odds and if there's overlay on one side then it would be a bet. Bet size are calculated using Kelly criteria. Bank = 1 000 usd. Kelly fract = 1/10 or (just for simple) average bet is about 30 usd or 3% of bank. Here are historical information on how model goes. Data goes back to 2007 (excluding 2009 and second half of 2012). History odds are from Pinnacle only. Pinnacle and Betfair will be used only during topic. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 700]

[TR] [TD]Probs[/TD] [TD]WinNum[/TD] [TD]LossNum[/TD] [TD]Overall[/TD] [TD]BET usd.[/TD] [TD]PL usd.[/TD] [TD]ROI, usd[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]* 0.3 … 0.4 *[/TD] [TD] 83[/TD] [TD] 323[/TD] [TD] 406[/TD] [TD=align: right]$6 759[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$298 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-4,41%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]* 0.4 … 0.5 *[/TD] [TD] 133[/TD] [TD] 324[/TD] [TD] 457[/TD] [TD=align: right]$10 098[/TD] [TD=align: right]$48[/TD] [TD=align: right]0,48%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]* 0.5 … 0.6 *[/TD] [TD] 410[/TD] [TD] 521[/TD] [TD] 931[/TD] [TD=align: right]$17 840[/TD] [TD=align: right]$351[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,96%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]* 0.6 … 0.7 *[/TD] [TD] 561[/TD] [TD] 458[/TD] [TD] 1 019[/TD] [TD=align: right]$22 605[/TD] [TD=align: right]$199[/TD] [TD=align: right]0,88%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]* 0.7 … 0.8 *[/TD] [TD] 661[/TD] [TD] 349[/TD] [TD] 1 010[/TD] [TD=align: right]$27 044[/TD] [TD=align: right]$1 129[/TD] [TD=align: right]4,17%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]* 0.8 … 0.9 *[/TD] [TD] 623[/TD] [TD] 205[/TD] [TD] 828[/TD] [TD=align: right]$27 237[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$217 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-0,80%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]* 0.9 … 1.0 *[/TD] [TD] 369[/TD] [TD] 33[/TD] [TD] 402[/TD] [TD=align: right]$17 830[/TD] [TD=align: right]$1 564[/TD] [TD=align: right]8,77%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall[/TD] [TD] 2 840 [/TD] [TD] 2 213 [/TD] [TD] 5 053 [/TD] [TD=align: right]$129 413[/TD] [TD=align: right]$2 777[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,15%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 700] [TR] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]WinNum[/TD] [TD]LossNum[/TD] [TD]Overall[/TD] [TD]BET usd.[/TD] [TD]PL usd.[/TD] [TD]ROI, usd[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*** 0 --> 1,5 ***[/TD] [TD] 1 340[/TD] [TD] 364[/TD] [TD] 1 704[/TD] [TD=align: right]$45 620[/TD] [TD=align: right]$910[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,99%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*** 1,51 --> 2 ***[/TD] [TD] 825[/TD] [TD] 544[/TD] [TD] 1 369[/TD] [TD=align: right]$30 943[/TD] [TD=align: right]$1 722[/TD] [TD=align: right]5,56%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*** 2,01 --> 2,5 ***[/TD] [TD] 310[/TD] [TD] 384[/TD] [TD] 694[/TD] [TD=align: right]$19 036[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$350 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-1,84%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*** 2,51 --> 3 ***[/TD] [TD] 152[/TD] [TD] 252[/TD] [TD] 404[/TD] [TD=align: right]$12 187[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$15 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-0,13%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*** 3,01 --> 5 ***[/TD] [TD] 189[/TD] [TD] 528[/TD] [TD] 717[/TD] [TD=align: right]$16 853[/TD] [TD=align: right]$642[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,81%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*** 5,01 --> 10 ***[/TD] [TD] 23[/TD] [TD] 128[/TD] [TD] 151[/TD] [TD=align: right]$4 282[/TD] [TD=align: right]$49[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,15%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*** 10,01 --> higher ***[/TD] [TD] 1[/TD] [TD] 13[/TD] [TD] 14[/TD] [TD=align: right]$493[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$180 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-36,51%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall[/TD] [TD] 2 840 [/TD] [TD] 2 213 [/TD] [TD] 5 053 [/TD] [TD=align: right]$129 413[/TD] [TD=align: right]$2 777[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,15%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 700] [TR] [TD]Overlay[/TD] [TD]WinNum[/TD] [TD]LossNum[/TD] [TD]Overall[/TD] [TD]BET usd.[/TD] [TD]PL usd.[/TD] [TD]ROI, usd[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 0 … 5% **[/TD] [TD] 847[/TD] [TD] 299[/TD] [TD] 1 146[/TD] [TD=align: right]$13 100[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$127 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-0,97%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 5 … 10% **[/TD] [TD] 510[/TD] [TD] 240[/TD] [TD] 750[/TD] [TD=align: right]$16 959[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$262 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-1,55%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 10% … 15% **[/TD] [TD] 343[/TD] [TD] 149[/TD] [TD] 492[/TD] [TD=align: right]$13 896[/TD] [TD=align: right]$1 061[/TD] [TD=align: right]7,63%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 15% … 20% **[/TD] [TD] 241[/TD] [TD] 139[/TD] [TD] 380[/TD] [TD=align: right]$11 815[/TD] [TD=align: right]$584[/TD] [TD=align: right]4,94%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 20% … 25% **[/TD] [TD] 159[/TD] [TD] 103[/TD] [TD] 262[/TD] [TD=align: right]$8 729[/TD] [TD=align: right]$748[/TD] [TD=align: right]8,57%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 25% … 30% **[/TD] [TD] 153[/TD] [TD] 166[/TD] [TD] 319[/TD] [TD=align: right]$8 907[/TD] [TD=align: right]$208[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,34%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 30% … 40% **[/TD] [TD] 191[/TD] [TD] 281[/TD] [TD] 472[/TD] [TD=align: right]$13 413[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$324 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-2,42%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 40% … 60% **[/TD] [TD] 208[/TD] [TD] 373[/TD] [TD] 581[/TD] [TD=align: right]$18 080[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$331 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-1,83%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 61% … 80% **[/TD] [TD] 96[/TD] [TD] 172[/TD] [TD] 268[/TD] [TD=align: right]$9 434[/TD] [TD=align: right]$891[/TD] [TD=align: right]9,44%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 81% … 100% **[/TD] [TD] 41[/TD] [TD] 104[/TD] [TD] 145[/TD] [TD=align: right]$5 441[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$126 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-2,32%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 101% … 150% **[/TD] [TD] 34[/TD] [TD] 107[/TD] [TD] 141[/TD] [TD=align: right]$5 390[/TD] [TD=align: right]$168[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,11%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 151% … 200% **[/TD] [TD] 7[/TD] [TD] 36[/TD] [TD] 43[/TD] [TD=align: right]$1 907[/TD] [TD=align: right]-$445 [/TD] [TD=align: right]-23,32%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]** 201% … 4 000% **[/TD] [TD] 10[/TD] [TD] 44[/TD] [TD] 54[/TD] [TD=align: right]$2 340[/TD] [TD=align: right]$734[/TD] [TD=align: right]31,37%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall[/TD] [TD] 2 840 [/TD] [TD] 2 213 [/TD] [TD] 5 053 [/TD] [TD=align: right]$129 413[/TD] [TD=align: right]$2 777[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,15%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: WTA Tennis Model [TABLE=class: grid, width: 800]

[TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Tournament[/TD] [TD]Player 1[/TD] [TD]Player 2[/TD] [TD]Prob 1[/TD] [TD]Odds 1[/TD] [TD]Odds 2[/TD] [TD]Bet 1 usd[/TD] [TD]Bet 2 usd[/TD] [TD]Overlay[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]30.12.2012[/TD] [TD]Shenzhen Open - Shenzhen[/TD] [TD]Nina Bratchikova[/TD] [TD]Julia Cohen[/TD] [TD=align: right]80,7%[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,568[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,55[/TD] [TD] $ 47[/TD] [TD] $ -[/TD] [TD=align: right]27%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]30.12.2012[/TD] [TD]Shenzhen Open - Shenzhen[/TD] [TD]Alexandra Cadantu[/TD] [TD]Bojana Jovanovski[/TD] [TD=align: right]11,1%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,46[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,351[/TD] [TD] $ -[/TD] [TD] $ 57[/TD] [TD=align: right]20%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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