Betting with mathematical advantage

[betting101]

Hi, I was reading this today... Value is a purely mathematical way of calculating, how good an odds is. You are only using the odds and the probability of the outcome to evaluate the odds. Factors like league position, form, and injuries are not taken into consideration, it is all about the odds and the probability. The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout for each dollar (currency used in this example) staked. The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout. That is how much you get in return for each dollar staked. You can calculate the value by using following formula: [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=class: smallText]Value = [/TD] [TD=class: smallText]Odds x Probability (%)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: smallText]100[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] If the value is above 1.00, then the bet is a ValueBet. This means that your average payout per dollar is greater than 1,00. Each time you bet more than a dollar you will get more than a dollar back statistically. In this way, you should win money in the long run. This assumes that you know the true probalility of an outcome, which nobody does when it comes to sport events. When playing the roulette, you know the probability of red as an outcome, 18/37. But when it comes to sport events, like a football match between England and Brazil, you can only guess on the probability. There are too many factors involved to make a precise objection prediction possible. Example If you can get odds 5.00 at England to win over Brazil, and England has a 30% chance of winning, the odds will have following value: [TABLE] [TR] [TD=class: smallText]Value: [/TD] [TD=class: smallText]5.00 x 30[/TD] [TD=class: smallText] = 1.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: smallText]100[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Since the value is above 1.00, this is a ValueBet. In other words, statistically you will only win three out of 10 times. But each payout will be five times your stake. This gives a total payout of $15 if the stake is $1 each time. That is an average of 1.5 payout per bet, which is exactly what the value of the bet. This is how you can use ValueBets ValueBets is a way to find the very best odds among the enormous amount of odds at the site. It is a method to find the odds, which not only are the the highest for the specific event, but in relative terms, the best of them all. Notice that ValueBets with the same value, for example 1.05, can have very different probabilities. If you feel like taking a big chance - and maybe go for a big winning - ValueBets with high odds and low probabilities are interesting. Conversely, if you are interested in finding a relatively safe bet, then low odds with high probabilities would be of interest. I think this way is only relevant if you are able to bet within the hour before the event since it rely on the whole odds change process. Anyone tried something like this?

[Machine]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage Sounds easy...next step early retirement

you can only guess on the probability. There are too many factors involved to make a precise objection prediction possible.

So basically value betting is 'how good you are at guessing' Ah well Shakespeare, monkeys and typewriters ;)

[betting101]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage yes, i did something similar before with great success but that took much time and effort....this almost look little bit too easy...that's what worries me

[betting101]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage This system suggest that f.ex 5.90 offered on Genk in tomorrows match against lisbon might be bit too high

[methuselah]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage The whole problem is getting correct the chance of your selection winning. Crack this one and you will get rich quickly. The idea of value is elementary but evaluating the chance of your selection has been beyond me so far.

[Kolo]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage You are going to struggle to come up with more accurate probabilities than the market

[betting101]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage The basic idea is that no one knows....so you take the advantage when the odds seem to be in your favor. I have done it for some time now with success(11 months). But not long enough to say that it's perfect

[betting101]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage What you do is.... -Find matches you do believe in -Try to evaluate what you think are the chances -Compare it to the market -If "YOU" think it represents value then you bet on it -Value is estimated differently form person to person F.ex if you have a team that scores a lot and there is a team that's not good at all Then you also see that 9/10 times there is at least 1 goal And you know that there is no injury on the team that scores a lot. Here you "could" give it a 90% chance if you like...and thereby place the bet on any odds of 1.12 or above that there would be a goal. This was just an example....for great favorites against poor teams...the odds on that selection is mostly at 1.02-1.06 range Like I said this is not an exact science....

[smus]

Re: Betting with mathematical advantage I'm not so sure that's true. I ran some numbers about the efficency of bet365's opening prices and they results were kind of surprising. I didn't run enough to convince me completely, but with with prices like 1.83 on over and under 2.5 goals they don't actually need to be efficent. It's not necessarily that the market is super efficent, it's that it would have to be super inefficent to turn a loss.