Flat racing - Tuesday 6th of November 2012

[robertob]

Melbourne Cup: Fiorente @ 34/1 win + @ 10/1 place & Tac De Boistron @ 80/1 win + 22/1 place Bet365 Really love the Melbourne Cup, for me it's the ultimate race, the biggest show on turf, the one race I'm really looking forward to every year. It's not the best race in the world in terms of quality, but the anticipation before the race is just something special. I'd never get up early in the morning at three o'clock for anything else than the Melbourne Cup. I think this years renewal looks really strong and exciting but with the likely wet conditions in mind I think there are two horses really overlooked in the betting market... Fiorente is only one week in Australia now and never raced Down Under but that is the only negative fact regarding his chance I think. He worked fantastically according to his trainer and the jockey in the last days and looks to be very fine and happy. That's good to hear indeed. I think the form book tells an interesting story saying that he is not far off the standard of the horses at the top of the market. He won very well a Group 2 at Newmarket in July, beating Red Cadeaux convincingly there. He finished second last to Orvefre in the Prix Foy then but this race was never ran to suit him. Fiorente is still lightly raced though and will have his first try over 2m. As his sire Monsun has a 21% strike rate with his offspring over distances of 14f + - siring a G1 winner over 20f and another couple of good stayers - I think it's not too unlikely that he gets the trip well enough. The nature of the race, the Melbourne Cup, should actually suit him as he likes to race handy which should allow him to get a good position early on from a low draw. He's versatile regarding the ground, having some form on fast ground, his best form came on a slow surface though which means he should be suited by the underfoot conditions tomorrow anyway. His Princess of Wales's Goldsmiths Stakes win entitles him to be in with a big chance in this race and first time blinkers may help him to find some further improvement too . Tac De Boistron is a horse that loves soft conditions so the rain forecast for Melbourne is sure to suit him very well. The horse is already in Australia for a couple weeks and raced in the Geelong Cup which was only a prep run for the Melbourne Cup over a trip that is normally too sharp though. This horses is a real stayer and if you watch the replay of his Group 2 win in the Prix Maurice De Nieuil earlier the year you can only be impressed with him. He was very badly hampered in the closing stages, bumped into the rails but really finished like a train nonetheless, outstaying Vadamar, who looked the certain winner a couple of yards out just but Tac De Boistron caught him on the line. He really improved this year as a five year old anyway but has decent enough looking form over 2 miles from 2011 in the form book as well as when finishing 2nd in a Group 3 and an excellent 4th in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak. He's able to race of a light weight tomorrow and I see him having a very decent chance to run very well. Concern is the wide draw obviously, but that doesn't always has to hinder a horse to run well and one thing is for sure: He stays all the way!

[cpo]

Re: Flat racing - Tuesday 6th of November 2012 When looking at races like this I like to look at previous trends. Thanks to Racecaller for these but the ones I look at first at the 10/10 trends which basically means 10 out of the last 10 winners of the race fit this trend. For this race there are 5 of these trends which are... 1. ran in the last 17 days 2. won at 1m4f or further 3. run in 13 or fewer handicaps 4. had won a group race 5. won a race with 14 or more runners Applying these trends means you can rule out the following... Red Cadeaux (1) Cavalryman (1) Mount Athos (1) Fiorente (1) Galileo's Choice (1) Mourayan (1) Kelinni (5) Unusual Suspect (5) Ethiopia (5) Sanagas (5) Voila Ici (5) Jakkalberry (5) That removes a lot of the European contingent on grounds of not having a recent run. Other trends to look at for the race is the draw which is pretty important if you looks at recent history. In the past 9 years 16 of 18 horses to finish in the first 2 have come from stalls 7-15. This removes... Dunaden Winchester Green Moon My Quest for Peace Tac De Boistron Lights of Heaven Precedence Zabeelionaire Obviously the trends are open to interpretation and it depends which you use to rule out horses but from what I have used this leaves us with 4 horses which are Americain, Glencadam Gold, Maluckyday and Niwot. I think Niwot can be ruled on grounds of age as no 8 year old has won this race in the last 10 years. That leaves 3 horses Americain 6/1 Glencadam Gold 40/1 Maluckyday 14/1 Out of the 3 I would back the French horse. Won it 2 years ago and looked unlucky last year. Has had a perfect prep for the race where he was a staying on 4th behind Dunaden and will not be inconvenienced by any softening of the ground. He has a nice pull in the weights with Dunaden from last year. I would suggest backing Americain for the race and have a saver on Ethiopia. Ethiopia is very inexperienced which may count against him but he was the first ever maiden to win the Australian derby in what was a very quick time and looks to have been crying out for a step up in trip. The race may come a year too soon for him but he gets in here off a low weight and he could be a potentially classy stayer in the making over in OZ. I have already backed him and Dunaden for the race but will have a bit on Americain as well.