Flat Racing - Thursday 20th of September

[robertob]

17.10 Ayr: Desert Creek @ 6/1 Paddy Power + Brocklebank @ 10/1 VC Two horses of my eye-catcher list running here in this race and I feel both have an exceptional chance to go very well after visual impressive performances last time out. The 3yo Brocklebank caught my eye at Epsom when he was travelling really well through the race and looked as if he could win the race, though he lacked the turn of foot to match the challenge of the eventual winner. Yet he came a good way clear of the rest of the field. He's back over 7f tomorrow and I think that will very much suit as also should be the soft going. His sire won over 7f a Group 3 on softish ground and Brocklebank done well on good to soft on his debut, so I assume he can handle the ground fairly well. He's also down to a pretty handy mark after he contested in a Group 2 in his 2yo campaign and had to race of pretty high marks as a result for a while. Desert Creek might be a bit of a frustrating horse but he looks pretty well handicapped at the moment and also very well in form. I thought his run at Thirsk just a few days ago was quite impressive as he raced in rear of the field many lengths of the pace and was really not in the best position when the leaders kicked on. He travelled exceptional well though and found plenty off the bridle in the home straight though he had no chance to catch the leading pair. A soft going is what he needs to be seen at his best so the conditions at Ayr should be really in his favour. His last win is ages ago but he looks to regain a bit of his old class now and can take advantage of his slipping mark I feel.

[marko_polo]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 20th of September 14:40 Ayr: Scrapper Smith @ 7/1 Bet Victor I thing this horse has a good chance in this race. Winless this term, but has been in very fine form over the last year or so. Especially in the Warrington listed race at Chester over further last time, after eventually finding some daylight after not getting a run 2f out, until 1f out, then running on at the finish, to take 3rd behind Tominator. I think he possibly could have won that day, if he found a clearer run. He is a course and distance winner. With 3 of his 6 career wins coming at Ayr. Plus he relishes the mud and a bit of juice in the ground. So hopefully the ground stays soft tomorrow. He is weighted to his best. But the handicapper hasnt penalised him for his last effort at Chester last time. So thats a plus. He also won this contest last year. His trainer Alistair Whillans has a 19% strike rate at Ayr, yielding a 24.98% profit. Julie Burke is on board, claiming 3lbs. So that will only help his cause more in these conditions. I think he will give another good account again, and will go very close back to 1m.