Flat Racing - Tuesday 18th of September

[robertob]

15.40 Thirsk: Orpsie Boy @ 8/1 Boylesports Didn't show much for a while since an excellent 3rd place at Chester following a win at Thirsk but showed a return to form at Kempton ten days ago when he travelled nicely in rear but had to come off a slow pace to deliver challenge. He had to manouvre through the whole field but the bird was flown when he was finally in the clear, yet he finished like a train in 2nd place. He's now 1lb below his last winning mark. This win came over course and distance here at Thirsk earlier this year so he's surly well handicapped and as seen at Kempton in good nick as well. 17.40 Thirsk: Thatcherite @ 10/1 Bet365 Really caught the eye with a fine effort here at Thirsk just ten days ago. He travelled best of all on the bridle till 2f out and finished strongly from well off the pace though he only managed to finish 3rd in the end. He's allowed to race of the same mark today again, which is his last turf winning mark as well. I'm just a bit worried about the ground, not sure if he really will act on with cut in the ground but it's worth a try at this price with his last performance in mind.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing - Tuesday 18th of September A competitive handicap and plenty in with chances, CONRY (15:40) could be regarded as ‘regressive’ considering he hasn’t built upon his lenient looking all-weather mark this summer and his sole turf start during the summer months wasn’t one indicating a horse that was soon to enter the winners’ enclosure. That being said, conditions today will suit perfectly, he’s fallen to a good mark and has the excellent assistance of Graham Lee and he’s a value price at these double figure odds. Conry isn’t as good on the sand as on turf which is represented in the difference in handicap ratings but he’s shown a fair level of form on the polytrack this summer, albeit not improving. He seems perfectly ‘well’, especially on the basis of his effort last time out when unsuited by the steady nature of the pace and the way the race unfolded, where the front two were that way for the majority of the contest. He prefers a sounder gallop and this is exactly what didn’t happen on his last turf start in July. Again that day, there was no pace on and after being held-up during the middle part of the race, stood little chance of getting to the leaders. The selection also looked a little awkward that day but I have a theory as to why. All his best form has come on left-handed tracks, with sharp tracks such as Catterick and Tipperary the venues where he’s won on turf. Beverley, being a right-handed and stiff track won’t have been ideal and Conry did seem to resent (albeit slightly) going that way round. Thirsk, being a sharp left-handed track, will obviously suit much better and I think it’s an unfair tag he’s been labelled with that he’s “regressive”. He still looks to be in some form, hasn’t had things to suit on recent all-weather and turf starts and will surely get a better pace to chase today, given there’s 16 runners and pace-setters including Toto Skyllachy and Polish World, so a dawdle looks unlikely and this will suit Conry perfectly. He hasn’t been with Ian Williams that long and he’s the sort of horse that this trainer excels with, and given that Conry is well-handicapped from a mark of 73 on his best turf form (won off 77 at Catterick, placed from a rating of 80 in 2010), improvement from this mark isn’t that unlikely. Dangers aplenty here but the selection is well worthy of investment given he has conditions to suit, will get a decent pace to run at, should enjoy the track and is well-drawn to boot. -- ROBERT THE PAINTER (17:40) has a record of 1/17 but has caught the eye on a few occasions this season and surely has the ability to bag a race from this sort of mark, given he’s still in relatively decent form and could well improve for the application of the first time visor. The step back in trip will be hugely beneficially and although if he resents the headgear he won’t go a yard, he has huge claims if taking to it. Connections have been a bit more ambitious in regards to the trip he’s been campaigned at this season, with attempts at 1m2f seemingly bringing about some encouragement. He’s always shaped to me though that he doesn’t quite see out the closing stages of the race when running over that distance (emphasised by his last two efforts) and that a strongly run mile will be more his bag. The way he travels in his races suggest that this could be the case and given the presence of the likes of Snow Bay and Cono Zur, this isn’t out of the question in this sort of contest. The selection has fallen 8lbs in the handicap since the start of the season and doesn’t even look badly treated given his form on his last two starts. He’s just seemingly not got home given fairly aggressive rides (sent for home a fair way out on both). If you watch the way he travels on his start at Ripon over 10f earlier in the season when held-up and never landing a blow (not the best of rides) it makes the notion of him running a big race granted a strongly run mile more palatable and I’m confident of a bold showing today granted this. The visor should also bring improvement. Whipper progeny have a 20% record in the visor and Robert The Painter has a half-sibling in Yaa Wayl who found improvement for the headgear (granted, that was using the visor for the second time, the first did however come in a hugely competitive handicap). Such a record is always worthy of some further investigation and this, alongside the fact that Robert The Painter won’t mind conditions, is the pick of stable jockey Daniel Tudhope and comes from a yard who will still be on a high from their victory in the Portland, he’s worthy of a decent bet and should be much shorter than he currently is (I’d have him at about the 9/2 mark). Bets 15:40 Thirsk – Conry; 2pts @ 16/1 Betfred, Paddy Power, William Hill 17:40 Thirsk – Robert The Painter; 2pts @ 7/1 Bet365 Take Best Odds Guaranteed where available.