Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System

[OneTeamInGlasgow]

Hi Guys, been reading this site for a few years and just decided to join as i'm ready to put a a system into play i've been working on for a long while now. Basically been studying every major league in Europe for when the first goal is scored, time when most goals go in, average time of the first and second goals and total goals per match. I feel with the right local knowledge on teams in every European league besides the Scandanavian and Dutch this could be a very profitable system. Feel free to get in touch with me if you'd like to discuss this further or share any ideas if you believe you may be thinking along the same lines.

[aderuk]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System I started looking at u3.5 trebles towards the end of last season, mainly the Americas.Argentina & Brazil leagues were quite good but the odds started to go to low sometimes 1,18 etc. I may have a play around with it this season as the premier league offer fairly good odds on some games.Man city away being one that generally gave good odds.The Dutch league produced quite a few unders as well towards the end of the season with very good odds. will add more later but off to work now.

[lunatism]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System :welcome to PL! When you say "local knowledge", do you mean anything more than what you wrote in the post? (that may seem like a daft question, but i assure you...it's not) The reason I ask, is because you can prepare data providing ALL of that information by scraping results and goal times from any reputable football stats site. So when you say that you have been studying every major league in Europe, do you mean looking at those websites? Or do you mean recording information that is readily available on the internet? In the research that you have been doing, have you found any clear correlation between time of first goal and goals per game? And if you are looking at the time of the goal rather than the number of goals in a game per se, does this mean you will be live betting? Or have you noticed some patterns that suggest that (for example) a team that scores the majority of it's goals in the first 20 minutes playing against a team that scores the majority of their goals between 60-75 minutes tends to create an over 3.5 situation? I think an underresearched (at least on my part) area of goals analysis, is shots and shot times in relation to over/unders - have you considered watching matches, noting shot times (well, there are a few websites that pretty much help out with this so you wouldn't have to watch gazillions of games...) and then using that data too? Because I would hazard a guess that a team that has 80% of their shots in the last 25 minutes are rarely going to be leading at half time (etc)...anyway, perhaps that is off topic! I'm sometimes adept at scraping data (specifically the football kind) from footy sites, so maybe I could lend a hand...

[OneTeamInGlasgow]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System Hi Gentlemen thanks for your responses and input. Also to lunatism i do get what you mean regarding the gathering of info and would like to share websites and sources with you, the best one i have found so far which pretty much suits my need is soccerstats.com. As for 'Local Knowledge' what i'm really asking for is for an expert or at least knowledgeable person for certain leagues that i want to play in e.g. Ligue 2, what may look like a very 'underish' game but Caen are missing their first choice Keeper and Right Back. Rather than looking at stats for said two teams or league overall but not knowing the ins and outs of a game that can make all the difference between goals going in or not. Firstly i think i should start by putting a little more detail into what i'm trying to do with my fledgling system. So at the tail end of last season and throughout the Summer i was playing around with laying any goal in the first 10 minutes of games, mainly in Euro 2012 as International Games do tend to be much more cagey from the start. This went ok but obviously fraught with danger with a usual lay at odds of around 6! No system can take that kind of liability on board if your looking make some decent cash. So digging further i was encouraged by the stats on how many games end Under 3.5, 70-75% for the EPL over the last 4 years and similar in the likes of Portugal and Italy, strangely down to around 60% in Holland aderuk so i may look to swerve the Nederlands when doing this. Anyway started picking my games, looking at goals scored and conceded and particularly tight affairs, mid-table battles, slightly stronger team away from home etc. In these matches i would lay over 3.5 Goals at odds of say 4.4 for $30 giving me a liability of $102, from here i would set the back odds to 5.2 (or wherever i thought would be 10-15 minutes into the match) and place a keep bet for $25. In this instance no goal in first 10-15 minutes or however long it takes to catch at 5.2 gives me eiether a $5 profit if it's under or a $3 profit of it's over. Basically using the Under 3.5 as an insurance bet knowing that if i've picked the right league i can't lose 70% of the time and by having a back out point and picking the right games hopefully get this percentage up to over 90%. Now what happens if a goal goes in very early? Obviously now your bet is not going to catch but in my experience in this situation no further goal before HT or around the 40 minute see's it come in. Now two goals in the first half leaves you needing it to stay at two until around 70 mins until the odds are achieved, not a comfortable situation but still needs a lot to happen in a certain time-frame to lose. Now say three goals have went in at any point, obviously all games are different but your looking at somewhere around 80 when you get out for profit. Not really sure if i'm explaining this exactly right but basically it's a system looking at capitalizing on the tight and sometimes turgid early part of the game where not a lot happens, make money from it then let the game do what it wants from there. Thoughts?

[froment]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System Hi, Glasgow man, :welcome to forum, hope you'll enjoy your staying here! :ok I used to run similar strategy with under 4.5 goals a couple of years ago, but I abandoned it. I used to back under 4.5 goals at odds around 1.15, and looked to trade out three to four ticks lower, which took about 15 minutes into the match. It was too time consuming compared to return; games with two or three quick goals pop up here and there, even in the matches wher you don't expect it at all, so you either have to settle for massive red up, either to take a risk and let it run, in which case your entire liability is gone. You say your liability is likes of 100$, and profit likes of 3 to 5 $; that means, you need strike rate of at least 95%, and that's very difficult to achieve; as trader named Fulwell summed it up in another place: There's also the mental pain of winning small profits on the majority of matches, then having it all taken away from you with one game that goes very wrong, and knowing it'll take you ages to claw it all back.

Now say three goals have went in at any point' date=' obviously all games are different but your looking at somewhere around 80 when you get out for profit. [/quote'] I don't know if you followed some matches to get this conclusion, but I think it's quite wrong! With three goals, odds for Over 3.5 goals will reach level of 4.40 to 5.20 not earlier than 88 to 90 minute. I'm also not sure about two goals in the match - I also think you need to wait a bit longer than 70th minute to get some profit... In any case, I don't want to discourage you - it's all about selection process, and if you are more successfull in selecting appropriate matches than I was, you can get nice profit out of that strategy, given soild patience! I hope you don't mind if I copy a post I wrote in another trading forum, in the time I actively used that strategy, so you can see pitfalls: ....... I'm trading (or, at the moments, gambling... if there is any difference between the two) mostly under/over 4.5 goals market, as I found it most consistent, and safest one. For Over/Under 2.5 goals market, if under 2.5 odds at kick off are, let's say, 1.80, goal in first ten minutes will send them to around 4.50 to 5, which means loss of 64% of initial stake. They rather fast drop down to around 4, and then dance around that mark for a period of time, which still wipes out more than half of the bank. With scalping, you achieve relatively small profit, which requires high strike rate, and one big loss will be difficult to recover; after first goal, it's dangerous to wait too long, as second goal means even higher loss; that's exactly why I moved to 4.5 goals market; matches with 4 fast goals are rather rare thing, so you can wait more relaxing for odds to come in again. Moreover, odds for un/ov 4.5 market are most of the time between 1.01 and evens (they go higher only in case of goal fiesta), and I just feel more comfortable with 0.01 tick increment, than 0.05 or 0.1, as it often goes in other markets; it basically has nothing to do with trading, but it's only my personal preference. For example, if there is an early goal, odds for under 4.5 will return to a level they were at kick-off around 25 to 30 minute, while for under 2.5 goals, it's as late as at half time; subsequently, if there are two goals in first half, odds for under 4.5 will return to level from kick-off at half time, or early in second half, and in that time, you have two more goals "allowed" before your trade is on the edge. Sometimes you will stumble upon three goals in first half, just like Sheffield Wednesday vs. Nots County at the moment, it's 60th minute now, and odds are around 1.50 at the moment (giving loss of only 20 %), while at kick-off they were around 1.20, so in about ten minutes, I expect them to be at the beginning... naturally, if there is no goal; in the meantime, but even if there is, trade is still alive; if the goal comes right now, odds would go to around 3.0 (current odds for under 3.5; under 4.5 would "inherit" that level in case of goal), which makes for a loss of 60%, therefore the same as would under2.5 provide after first goal... with a difference that under 2.5 has been long dead now. Finally, if you're so unlucky to hit a match with 4 goals in first half, as I sometimes do, then you can do nothing but say good bye to most of your bank, or sit down and pray scorers to get lazy... Additionally, when trading ov/un 2.5 goals, you usually need to hedge both outcomes, over and under 2.5, as both are, more or less, equally likely to happen; though, when trading on under 4.5, I usually lay off only my initial stake, so to maximize profit if match finisihes with 4 or less goals, and to break even in (rare) cases when there is 5 or more goals. I don't like under 3.5 market, as it seems to have collected only bad sides of two surrounding markets - drop of odds is not very fast, and it's sensitive to an early goal almost in the same level as under 2.5. We have elaborated early goals, but sometimes you need to beware of late goals! In only several days, despite all my analyses and info, I succeeded to hit three games with more than 4 goals, which pretty seriously burned my bank... I'm pretty sure that sooner or later that may happen to you, on this or some other market, but don't get discouraged, and more importantly, don't chase your losses; it's trading, so take a deep breath, come in terms with new lower bank, and start all over again!

[lunatism]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System

regarding the gathering of info...would like to share websites and sources with you' date=' the best one i have found so far...is soccerstats.com.[/quote'] Although i'm not sure if they would come in handy to you - feel free to look at the following sites, when I set up my bots to trawl around the internet picking up football data, they ONLY use these sites, and the data they have is enough to generate pretty much anything:

• soccerway - these guys irritate the hell out of me, but they do provide a LOT of information about the teams in an easiliy scrapable format. not necessarily the information that most people are interested in, but things that are very important for me (eg. the longitude/latitude of each team, clear list of trophies that each club has won and when). I used to use them exclusively for data - but they persistently changed their code, it got annoying so i looked elsewhere. they also provide over/under analysis as a tab on their league tables, so perhaps you should check that out
• soccervista - they are a good site, they even offer predictions for matches that have reached a certain stage of the season (offering both score prediction AND o/u predictions - something that may come in handy for you). the main reason I use this site is for verfication. i often find that one football site will list a match, and another will not - usually because of cancellations, so for me include a match, it has to be seconded by this site
• betexplorer - basically my new soccerway - i get fixture and result lists from here, h2h data and I perform all my historical checks here which allow me to generate my own league tables (both for past and present) - very important for me, because it means that I can generate "pedigree" for each team. i also scrape all the standards odds from here too
• oddschecker - these guys do the odds! i get ALL my betting echange odds from here (well, except for the ones that I get from betexplorer)
• transfermarkt - these represent my latest developments really - they have indepth squad information - most likely the site that will do you the most good. they basically provide the "local knowledge" that you seem to be after, in the sense that they have injuries and suspensions for each team. but not only the missing players - because if a team is gunning down every team that they face, and a player (who is the most valuable at the club) hasn't played all season but is a star player - you may look at him being missing from the team and presume it will affect them. this can't really happen on this site because you can also see a LOT of things about contribution - goals scored, minutes played, assists, penalties, etc. what it means is that you can determine the exact influence/importance of each player, and therefore assess the affect of them not being in the team (eg. the team haven't conceded a goal in ANY match that mr defender has played, so you might think backing the over 3.5 is a good idea if he is suspended and they are playing against a good attacking side in the league (even though just based on goal stats it would be a 2 or 3 goal match)

The reason why it is better to use something like transfermarkt (or some other site) for somelike like local knowledge is because basically their data is realtime. Somebody tells you that there are a lot of goals in Holland, so will you then manually put a note next to all dutch games because so and so has given you their word? if i tell you that in italy there are a lot of red cards, and yet there are still not a lot of high scoring games, the same? ultimately, you'll end up with a list of other people's opinion, which is all well and proper - but every time there is a change in the local situation, you'll have to hope your sources inform you, otherwise you will be stuck with old opinions and old data. you might find yourself in a situation where you are keeping all these "experts" on retainer for their expert local knowledge, and you'll look in the mirror one day and realise that you have created your own scouting network!

I think i understand - it's a live betting system - which would explain your desire for local knowledge. i think that if you use a site like transfermarkt combined with the local knowledge that you will get from being a member on the teams forums, you will have enough to perfect your system. a few years ago, i had a comprehensive list of team forums, because on those pages, you will find team information that hasn't even been made public yet, and that is exactly the kind of information that you will need for live betting (because you will then have an edge on the bookies). Plus, they often discuss the live events as they are taking place, which means that how the teams are playing (if you are unable to watch the match live) can factor into your decision process. It's not enough to use a site like PL for this - you need the ones that are dedicated to each local team - that way, before a match (and during) you can simply open up your bookmarks and watch the cash flow in :D

[lunatism]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System @froment ah buddy - you beat me to it, although we've both tackled this from different angles...well, pretty much different fields altogether as I focused on the "knowledge" and you focused on the o/u!!! a good answer from you, and I think that it will help a LOT with the kind of system that OneTeamInGlasgow is trying to create :ok

[only1woz]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System Hi lunatism, :welcome to the forum. Good luck with your system, and nice to see (presuming from your username) a fellow Thistle fan on here!

[OneTeamInGlasgow]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System I appreciate the responses on here, it's good to hear from people who have similar experiences and thoughts on under's systems. Froment i too was looking at the under 4.5 market but my thinking was although 4.5 gives you a better buffer against goals, the price for me to lay is a much bigger jump than from say 2.5 - 3.5. In most cases the average jump in odds is 3/3.5 up to 7/8 which in turn is a much heavier price to lay. Just wondering how much your backing it for to make decent money at only 3 or 4 ticks lower? As for - There's also the mental pain of winning small profits on the majority of matches, then having it all taken away from you with one game that goes very wrong, and knowing it'll take you ages to claw it all back. I couldn't agree more with you for a few reasons but mostly it is frustrating when you pick a lot of games you think will low scoring and they end up that way, however, you've traded out for $5 or $10 profit then one one crazy first half with 3 goals has wiped out 10 games good work. Must be said early red cards also scupper the chances odds rising in your favour. Also as i now live in Australia, in-play betting isn't really an option for me given the time difference and also the fact you need to call in to place an in-play bet which is incredibly annoying. This is part of reason i want to create a system to take advantage of the way most games start or games that have 3 goals or less, place my bets before KO, one lay one back in this case and leave it to run without the need to monitor in-play. Tough ask i know! One more question for Froment, did you abandon the system because it cost you too much too quick, because you thought it wasn't sustainable or is was too time consuming? lunatism thanks for the info and sorry Thistle fan i'm not in your tribe, i'm a Celtic fan just finding another way to rip it out of rangers/sevco whatever they are called. I'm actually kind of glad to well away from the country as Scottish Football makes an arse of itself time after time.

[froment]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System

One more question for Froment' date=' did you abandon the system because it cost you too much too quick, because you thought it wasn't sustainable or is was too time consuming?[/quote'] The last reason, ratio of time / reward was too adverse for my liking; since I scalped 3 or 4 ticks, that means profit of 3 to 4 % per trade, and that requires a lot of patience. If the trade was closed as expected, it was fine; but if goal(s) went in before closing the trade, that required to follow the match and decide what to do - whether to take a loss immediatelly or to wait; if decision was to wait, then how long, in matter of time or odds change, etc., so when I hit a losing run that wiped entire previous profit built in about two years, I did not have time and patience to build it up again from the beginning... It was not decent money, I did not fancy making a living off the betting. My usual staking plan has been to start from 10 or 20 EUR and then go all-in and bank some money in process; I call that method "sequential all-in" - one sequence consists of certain number of bets (usually 5 to 10), or certain multiplication of the bank (double or triple); if sequence has been completed successfully, I bank some of the profit, and start new sequence, with higher initial stake; if I suffer a loss, I also start over a new sequence, with the same initial stake.

[goals_G]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System Glasgow, last season I started punting on under 4.5 goals on certain matches which met my criteria. I stuck to the lowest scoring leagues in Europe and took into account recent results as well as head to head stats. Without divulging exactly what I looked at, it basically narrowed it down to 1 or 2 matches from a few leagues each week. Odds got pretty low on these matches, I guess it wasnt only me who was expecting few goals. I reckon my average price was around 1.07. I started off with £200 and went through the season losing only 1 bet. I bet the full whack every time, up until I had a bank of £1500 at which time I banked 1k and kept betting the £500. It was after the banking of the 1k that I had my only loss. I know this is probably not much help to you in your search for a bit more knowledge, but at I hope it gives you an idea of the type of odds you will be getting and how I believe it is possible to make a few quid using this. The other advice I would give is hold off betting until a few rounds of the season have passed, as the first few weeks are generally hard to predict. I will be using this again this season, hopefully get a similar return. Give me a shout if you think I could help you out.

[OneTeamInGlasgow]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System Thanks again for the responses gentleman. There is a system there for a sure to take advantage of no goals in the first 10/15 minutes of games or even 1 goal or less in the First Half, just a case of finding the right balance and the right games i suppose. All the time in the world and a big starting bank would help too! And yeah goals_G as i mentioned with froment, under 4.5 goals happens on average 92% of the time compared with around 70% for 3.5 so it certainly is something i'll be looking at this season. Is it possible to pm on here?

[goals_G]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System Not sure about pm on here, get me on twitter @goalsgallagher

[OneTeamInGlasgow]

Re: Seeking Local Help For Under 3.5 Goals System Not on twitter mate, isn't really my scene to be honest. I see your a Scotsman living abroad in the sunshine so kudos for that! We'll find another way to converse and see what damage we can do this season.