Flat Racing - Thursday 12th July

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.50 Newmarket - 3pts win Ahern @ 9/2 (PP) Posted this before Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot - 3pts win Ahern @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) I got this race down to the first four in the market in the end and I'm siding with David Barron's runner, who is currently the 2nd favourite for this 5f contest. Although the favourite does have very strong claims, having been pretty impressive in wins which have been franked but I think Ahern could be anything really and could take a bit of beating. He's only had one run so far and connections must have thought a fair bit of him to throw him into a conditions race on his first start. He was facing horses with experience and all of his rivals had previously won a race. He was slowly away but showed good pace to respond and get a decent sit. He looked pretty green throughout the contest really but when Graham Gibbons really got after him once he'd hit the front he extended really nicely and went on to score readily by 2 1/2l. The stiff finish here will suit on that and there was cut in the ground that day. He was comfortably ahead of Satsuma - 7th of 27 in the Queen Mary yesterday (and 3rd of 16 in group) - so there is some substance to the form and there was a further few lengths back to the third. Johnny Murtagh is a good jockey booking and although his draw possibly isn't ideal, this field isn't huge so it shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience and he should have plenty more to come.

Ran a cracker in the end considering he blew the start by a few lengths and that was his chance over that day over a straight 5f. Did extremely well to finish just 2 1/2l behind the winner. He'll have to bounce out better today but there's an extra furlong to help him and that should also suit. Jamie Spencer being on board is a positive signal for a yard he has a 33% strike rate riding for and I anticipate a very good effort here today with the favourite yet to prove himself with cut in the ground. 2.25 Newmarket - 3pts win Razorbill @ 8/1 (Bet365) Charles Hills' runner has a progressive profile and this step up to 1m2f looks sure to suit on his rallying 2nd at Windsor last time out over a mile. He was only beaten a head there in a decent handicap behind an interesting Godolphin horse and is a big horse who shaped as if 2f extra would bring out even more and allow him to get back in the winner's enclosure. Prior to that he ran away with a maiden at Nottingham (worked out) and is 4lbs well-in as his official rating is set to rise. That means he can run off the same mark he was narrowly deprived of last time out and I think he's plenty capable of winning this now his stamina is utilised. 4.40 Newmarket - 2pts win Jedward @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) Don't usually like piling into these races but I'm really quite sweet on the chances of Richard Fahey's runner as I think she wants a stiff 5f with cut in the ground, but hasn't really had the chance to compete under these circumstances recently. She's a mare who relishes some give underfoot and her only win came over 5f on just her second start. That doesn't really tell the story as she's a rock solid handicapper at a good level and has run several good races since. She's only run one bad race since joining Fahey and that came over 7f at Chester which can safely be disregarded - especially as she bounced back afterwards. She put in a strong challenge over 6f at York next time out but just couldn't quicken at the death which suggests to me 5f is what she needs. The winner that day has won his next two races as well so there's plenty of substance there. Last time out, Jedward went back to Chester over 5f on quicker ground and it was probably just a little bit too sharp for her. She was under pressure early on and could only keep on into midfield. The return to a more galloping track will suit her and this test should be spot on. She's likely to be competitive off such a mark yet again and I think she's going to go very well indeed.