Investigating the value of home-win odds

[brecki]

Hi, this is brecki from good old Germany. I try to investigate the value of home-win odds in soccer matches. To find a selection, the value must be greater or equal to 10% and the probability to win the bet must be at least 40%. There will be back bets and lay bets, each one is based on a fixed 10 Euro stake, so of course the risk of each back bet is 10 Euro while the risk of each lay selection is (odd-1) x 10 Euro. I start with a bank of 300 Euro and use Betfair-Odds so let´s see what the idea is worth. The Betfair-charge of 5% will be deducted. Here are the starting selections for today: Tromsdalen - Sarsporg (Norway 2) Back 1 @ 4,90 Value 20,62% Probability 41,03% Odd Grenland - Haugesund (Norway 1) Lay 1 @ 2,54 V: 17,17% P: 77,81% Rosenborg - Molde (Norway 1) Lay 1 @ 2,06 V: 11,30% P: 62,76% MyPa - KuPs (Finland 1) Back 1 @ 2,22 V: 21,24% P: 66,29 Shamrock - St. Patrick (Ireland 1) Lay 1 @ 2,22 V: 10,67% P: 65,62% Sol de America - Carapegua (Paraguay 1) Lay 1 @ 1,85 V:14,98% P: 60,93%