Flat Racing - Friday 8th June

[robertob]

14.30 Arlington: Enrani @ 5/2 Sportingbet Milkford Stakes at Arlington, a Listed race over 1.000m with 15 runners - normally not a betting proposition for me, though I've been surprised when I saw the price for Erani as I expected her to be a much clearer favourite for this. She's easily the class act in this field and has a big chance on the weights either. Enrani has won five of her ten career starts but she is very much a classy sprinter for the shortest possible distance: 1.000m. She is 3/4 over this distance and missed the 100% record only by a nose. She has been back at the track in April again after a break and won then a good Conditions Plate in impressive style. She stepped then up in grade and distance, contesting in a Listed race over 1.200m at Kenilworth. She finished a creditable fifth not far beaten but the step back to 1.000m will be very much in her favour. It's also noteworthy that connections decided to make the 750km long trip from Cape Town to Port Elizabeth for this race as Enrani normally races at Kenilworth or Durbanville. They could have gone there for one of the better races but obviously felt that she would have here in this fillies listed race a better chance. Anyway, you don't make the trip to PE for nothing, and there is one thing for sure: Enrani will be primed for this race and she has nothing to fear anyway. The field is decent but not too strong and with the weights in her favour, and the expected soft ground also very much in her favour, she has a massive chance. The 21% strike rate of the Snaith/Fourie combo is just an additional bonus. 18.50 Goodwood: Nave @ 9/2 Paddy Power This race looks competitive but I feel Nave has loads in his favour to get finally back to the winning ways after almost two years. He is a different animal at Goodwood as he won once hear of a ark off 77 in August 2010 and finished a strong 2nd last year off 87 in a good class 2 Handicap in altogether three starts. The last time here has been at his final start in 2011 when he finished a solid fifth. After a long break he made eventually his seasonal reappearance three weeks ago in a hot class 3 Handicap at Newmarket. He tried to make all from the front but weakened 2f out. He was also hampered in the closing stages, but most probably not fit enough to win it anyway. This form works out very well, however, as the winner Danadana followed up with another success in a class 2 Handicap, plus another winner and a couple of placed horses. Nave drops tomorrow in class and dropped also considerably in the mark. He's now 4lb below his last winning mark and therefore finally weighted to win again. Soft ground conditions are expected at Goodwood. No problem for Nave who has quite decent form on soft ground. That gives him a big chance here in my mind, as he simply find loads in his favour: Ground, track and mark.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing - Friday 8th June 3.55 Newmarket My Son Max 1pt EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes The one I like here carry’s a penalty for a win on the all weather last time out but he looks as though he can progress with his new trainer. My Son Max used to be trained by Richard Hannon who managed to get 2 wins out of the horse. The 2^nd of them wins came over 7f at York where he won off a mark of 80. Although he only just got up on the line, I feel 7f is a far as he wants to go being by Avonbridge. He has since left Richard Hannon and is now with P J O’Gorman who has had him for 2 runs. He made his debut for his new trainer at Kempton over a mile but never looked likely to get involved as he was keen early on and held up. On his latest start, he looked quite impressive in overhauling Ducal over 7f at the same track. He travelled powerfully near the back of the pack and made eye-catching headway through the field before battling on to get the better of an all weather improver in Ducal. That performance reminded me of a similar performance from Mac’s Power for the same trainer at the same track. That horse is now highly rated and is consistently near the head of the markets for big sprint handicaps. I am not saying My Son Max can get to that level, but I feel he can cope with a 6lb penalty back on turf. His win at York came off 80 so he is only 3lbs higher here but he is a year older now and should be able to cope with more weight. This will only be his 3^rd run for his new trainer and there is every chance he can improve again. This is obviously tougher but Pat Cosgrave is in good form at the moment and P J O’Gorman has a good record at the track. He is unraced on ground softer than good so I wouldn’t want to see too much rain at the track. That being said, at lost of horses by Avonbridge do go on soft ground so I would hope that he would handle softer conditions. It is a competitive handicap and Escape to Glory looks the most likely danger. He too has a penalty to carry for a good win last time out. He won that day fairly comfortably so he should have no problems with the rise in the weights. He may potentially face very different conditions to that win at Folkestone and there is a chance he won’t be as effective as he is American bred. He has encountered soft ground in the past and finished 2^nd but that was in a very poor maiden. He still however looks the main threat to My Son Max. Redvers wouldn’t want any easing in the ground and Able Master is better at 6f. Theladyinquestion is the only previous CD winner but she has clearly had her problems and is on a career high mark here. She ran well enough on her return to action at Lingfield but didn’t do enough for me to warrant an interest here. There are other dangers in what looks an open race but I will take my chances on My Son Max. 8.30 Goodwood Free Verse 2pts win @ 6/1 Bet365 I don’t normally like backing 3 years old against older horses this early on in the season but I think Free Verse stands out here. She travelled well for a long way on her reappearance at Ascot but faded into 5^th place behind the impressive Making Eyes. Russian Rave who finished ahead of Free Verse in that race has come out and won since but there have been a few that finished behind my selection that have ran poorly next time out. The drop back in trip here should suit and she has already proven herself on soft ground and also at the track. She won a nursery at Catterick over 7f on soft ground at the end of last season and finished a good 3^rd over CD before that. She is one of the higher rated horses in this race yet due to the conditions of the race, she is almost the bottom weight. Richard Hughes takes the ride, which is an obvious positive, and both he and Richard Hannon have a good record at Goodwood. If coping with the drop back to 6f, I would be very surprised if this one couldn’t get involved in the finish. The current favourite Hallelujah looks a certainty for the dreaded bounce factor. She had a hard race at Ripon after almost a year off the track and although she has had nearly 3 weeks to get over that, I don’t think she will be winning this. I looked at both Mortitia and Cochabamba but feel they aren’t up to winning this. The biggest danger may well come from last time out winner Moretta Blanche who won well on soft ground at Ascot on her return to action. Interakt is another horse that could run into the places here but I fancy Free Verse to win this.