elo system - please explain

[saadat68]

Hello i want to use elo ratting system but i dont understand completely i have some questions 1- here we have :

Team1 had a 64% chance of winning, Team2 36%

but football is win - draw and lose what is chance of draw ? 2- if i want find fair odds can i use these chance and convert them to odd ? thanks and sorry for bad english :eyes

Elo*************************************** ' The ratings are based on the following formula: ' ' Rn = Ro + KG × (W - We) ' ' or ' ' P = KG(W - We) ' ' Where; ' Rn = the new rating ' Ro = the old (pre-match) rating ' K = the Weight Constant for the tournament played ' * 60 for World Cup finals; ' * 50 for continental championship finals and major intercontinental tournaments; ' * 40 for World Cup and continental qualifiers and major tournaments; ' * 30 for all other tournaments; ' * 20 for friendly matches. ' G = the Goal difference adjustment for the Weight Constant ' It is increased by half if a game is won by two goals, ' by 3/4 if a game is won by three goals, ' and by 3/4 + (N-3)/8 if the game is won by four or more goals, ' where N is the goal difference. ' W = the result of the game (1 for H, 0.5 for D, and 0 for A) ' We = the Win Expectancy - the expected result ' We = 1 / (10(-dr/400) + 1) ' dr equals the difference in ratings plus 100 points for a team playing at home. ' P = Points Change '************************************************* ************************************************** Lets look at an example of adjusting ratings: Two results, score in brackets: (4) Team1 vs Team2 (2) (1) Team3 vs Team1 (5) The 3 teams start with 1000 points each and this could be at the start of each season or from the earliest record you have. Now, in order for the ratings to work, we need to update both teams ratingafter every game. To get our numbers for the equations, refering to the info above, lets get the easiest one first!: Difference in ratings including home team weighted with 100 points (dr): dr = ((RatingHomeTeam + 100) - RatingAwayTeam) dr = ((1000 + 100) - (1000) dr = 100 Win Expectancy (We): We = 1/(10^(-dr/400) + 1) We = 1/(10^(-100/400) + 1) We = 1/(10^-0.25 + 1) We = 1/(0.56 + 1) We = 1/1.56 We = 0.64 so Team1 had a 64% chance of winning, Team2 36% WeightConstant for league games (K) K = 30 Goal Difference is 2 (G) G = 1.5 Result of the game was H (W): W = 1 Win Expectancy (We): We = 0.64 Points change (P): P = KG(W - We) P = (30 * 1.5) * (1 - 0.64) P = 45 * 0.36 P = 16.20 Team1 gets the points: 1000 + (16.20) = 1016.20 Team2 loses the points: 1000 - (16.20) = 983.80

[saadat68]

Re: elo system - please explain anybody cant help me ?