UFC on FOX 3

[Ronnie]

Another night of great fights is planned for Saturday the 5th May, the main event is Nate Diaz v Jim Miller. This is one hell of a match up with the winner getting a shot at the 155lb title. Diaz's last 2 fights have been the best performances of his career, especially the pick apart demolition of Cerrone, but I think his weakness is his wrestling, his Bjj is top class but he's struggled in the past against top wrestlers, Miller is a top wrestler who won't stand in front of Diaz taking the shots Cerrone did, it's a battle of Diaz's reach against Millers takedowns/wrestling and I have the slight edge going to Miller (and it is only slight). This is over 5 rounds but cardio won't be a problem, both fighters are cardio machines and are very hard to finish, leading me to Miller on points. Josh Koscheck faces Johny Hendricks in what maybe his last chance to put himself in with a chance of a title run, both have wrestling titles, Koscheck is a 4 time all American and Hendricks is a 2 time NCAA champion. Usually when you get 2 top wrestlers it leads to a stand up war and this will be no different, both guys use their wrestling in reverse to stay standing, Koscheck has the experience to stay away from Hendricks raw power and he has a more diverse stand up game, he will have learned from watching Hendricks KO his team mate Fitch. I think if it goes to the ground Koscheck has the advantage and although not a bjj star he has won by submission before, and should be able to control Hendricks and take the decision win. The final fight is one I'm really looking forward to, Rousimar Palhares is one of the most explosive fighters of any division, he's been taking limbs home for fun and is touted as the one fighter no one wants to fight. Alan Belcher has stepped up to the challenge, he's been out of the game with injury for a long time (8 months) so maybe a little ring rusty, although he's a bjj black belt he's no match for Palhares and I think the price of evens for a sub win is quite generous. I also fancy Palhares to get this over with fast, he'll throw his looping right hand and take Belchers left leg home with him in the first round. Jim Miller win by decision Evs @ Ladbrokes Josh Koshceck win by decision 2/1 @ Ladbrokes Rousimar Palhares to win by submission Evs @ Ladbrokes Rousimar Palhares to win in the 1st round 11/4 @ Paddy Power

[Ronnie]

Re: UFC on FOX 3 Decided to add another one. Pat Barry v Lavar Johnson is going to be a barn stormer, both men are strikers with the technical edge going to Barry and the power going to Johnson. Barry will try to work his way in with leg kicks but I don't think it'll work for him, Johnson has refined his boxing style and the slight stance change he's made will be perfect to catch Barry coming in. Lavar Johnson to win by KO/TKO 23/10 @ Paddy Power You can get a safer 17/10 on Johnson to win but I don't think it'll get past the 2nd round and he won't sub Barry, possibly KO of the night too.