Saturday 31 March Flat Racing

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I know this is early but I thought I may as well post it now and let you see my thoughts for the weekend over in Dubai. 2.10 Meydan Godolphin Mile (Group 2) (Tapeta 1m) Prediction 1. African Story 2. Sandagiyr 3. Western Aristocrat Bet African Story 5pts win @ 2/1 Bet365 This first race looks pretty straightforward for me with the favourite looking to have a great chance. African Story should be 3 from 3 over in Dubai this year on this surface. He showed decent form in France last year in group company with his best effort being a head defeat to the very talented Moonlight Cloud. He started off the carnival over 7f and won comfortably beating the consistent Barbecue Eddie in the process. He was then stepped up in trip to 8f in a group 3 contest won by his stablemate Sandagiyr. That was a good race in which the final result does not tell the whole story. African Story was very unlucky in running in that race and would have definitely won if he had got the gap. There were some decent horses in behind that day, most notably Bold Silvano. My selection made no mistake next time up over the same CD and again in group 3 company. It was a very impressive performance from African Story as he won very easily by 4 lengths beating Snaafy and also having the very talented Musir in behind. I still don’t think we have seen the best of this horse and I fully expect him to win in this higher company. It doesn’t look any tougher than the group 3 contests he has been racing in and the only danger for me is the Jeremy Noseda trained Western Aristocrat. He is a grade 1 winner over in America on turf and has the excellent Ryan Moore on board. He returns here from a break but has gone well fresh in the past. He is unproven on the surface but was an easy winner at Kempton last year. I don’t see him having a problem with the surface but he meets a very progressive horse in African Story and I don’t think he will be able to trouble him. African Story gets better and better with every race and he relishes this surface. Godolphin obviously like to win their own race and have won it the last 3 years. They look to have an obvious chance to make it a 4^th consecutive win in the race. 2.45 Meydan Dubai Gold Cup (Group 3) (Turf 2m) Prediction 1. Fox Hunt 2. Opinion Poll 3. Kasbah Bliss Bet Fox Hunt 4pts win @ 7/2 Bet365 This is another uncompetitive looking race in which the boys in blue should take. The 3^rd favourite in the race is Mikhail Glinka and there has to be a doubt over his stamina for the trip. He has only once raced over this distance, which came over CD last year, but he appeared to not get the trip. He did win last time out but I would be against him here against some proven classy stayers in Fox Hunt and Opinion Poll. The most interesting runner could be the Alan Bailey trained Barbican who steps up to this distance for the first time. He has once raced over 1m6f where he won and looked as though a further step up in trip would not be out of the question for him. He comes here on the back of a very impressive win on the all weather at Kempton and he could pose a threat if getting the distance. Kasbah Bliss has been a class act throughout his career but age may just be catching up with him now. I would have liked to have seen more from him on his return to action but he was well down the field in that race won by Fox Hunt at the beginning of March. Fox Hunt is 2 from 2 at the carnival this year and has looked very impressive in both starts. He beat Opinion Poll last time out but this trip should suit his rival much more. Opinion Poll has already proven himself a horse of the highest quality at staying distances having won 3 times at group 2 level and finished 2^nd to Fame and Glory at group 1 level. Fox Hunt, however only just failed to reel in Opinion Poll at Goodwood when he was with Mark Johnston and I suspect he has improved for the change in stable. He has looked as good as ever in his last two wins and he is progressing nicely for Godolphin. He looks a horse that could be a big threat in staying races this year. I am not surprised that Frankie has chosen to ride Opinion Poll in the race although I did think he would have stuck with Fox Hunt. Silvestre De Sousa gets the ride on Fox Hunt, which isn’t a problem considering how many times he rode the horse for Mark Johnston. I fully expect these two horses to battle it out to the line but I am hopeful Fox Hunt will come out on top. 3.25 Meydan UAE Derby (Group 2) (Tapeta 1m 1f 110y) Prediction 1. Balada Sale 2. Mickdaam 3. Wrote Bets Balada Sale 1pt EW @ 10/1, Mickdaam 1pt win @ 6/1 both Paddy Power In all 12 renewals of this race, either Godolphin or Mike De Kock has won it so it may prove foolish to oppose them but the one I am going to take a chance with is the Pascal Bary trained Balada Sale. This horse was originally going to be sent to Mike De Kock but the owner had a last minute change of heart and decided to send her to France. She is potentially very smart although it is difficult to determine how good her form is. Saying that she did win the Guineas and Oaks double in Argentina and she actually won the Oaks by 11 lengths. She does have to give weight away to most of her rivals because of those grade 1 wins but she obviously has a touch of class. I would rather take a chance on her than anything else in the race, as it looks very open. Of the Aiden O’Brien horses, I just prefer Wrote with Ryan Moore on board. He ran a cracker to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and won it pretty comfortably in the end. The step up in trip should suit him and he looks a massive threat to anything in the race if taking to the surface. Helmet is the highest rated horse in the race and is a multiple Grade 1 level winner in Australia. His last 3 runs have been very disappointing however and he is one to tread carefully with on his first start in Dubai. Given De Kock’s record in the race, Mickdaam must have a great chance of taking this. He is proven on the surface and improved massively for the step up to this distance last time out. He comfortably had a few of these in behind in that race and I don’t expect any of them to be turning the form around here. Bit of a risky one as we don’t really know how good the form is and although she won the Argentine Oaks by 11 lengths, it is very likely she didn’t beat too much. She has been transferred to a top stable however who are no strangers to big winners in Dubai having won the Dubai World Cup a couple of years ago. This is Pascal Bary’s only runner on World Cup night so fingers crossed it is a winning one. 4.00 Meydan Al Quoz Sprint (Group 1) (Turf 5f) Prediction 1. Sole Power 2. Prohibit 3. Invincible Ash Bet Sole Power 2pts win @ 9/1 William Hill This looks highly competitive with the current favourite at 8/1. My selection is current 2^nd favourite at 9/1 and I think he holds every chance in this race. I backed him last time out where I felt Murtagh probably thought he had the race won and didn’t ride out as hard as he could and was just nabbed on the line by Invincible Ash. I don’t expect him to make the same mistake again and I fully expect Sole Power to go well here. He travelled so sweetly on his return to action and looked as good as ever. He is a group 1 sprinter and on his day he is as good as any. The European sprinters however do have plenty to find with sprinters from the other side of the World and Joy and Fun is their main representative here. He won last time out over 6f and I think that might be his best trip. He drops back down to 5f here but he has never won over this distance and he may be vulnerable to some 5f specialists such as Sole Power. I wouldn’t be surprised to see much better efforts from both Prohibit and Margot Did in this race but they both have plenty to find with Sole Power. If anything Sole Power should improve again with that run under his belt but the negative in this race is his outside draw. It’s not ideal to be drawn right on the outside of the field but he was drawn pretty wide last time out and still managed to run a cracker. I wouldn’t worry about it as he has Margot Did to give him a good toe into the race as she is drawn outside of him. There does look to be plenty of speed in the race and there are several horses that like to be held up. Sold Power is versatile but he has a great cruising speed, which should take him deep into the race still travelling well. I can’t see Johnny Murtagh making the same mistake this time around and hopefully he can go one better. 4.35 Meydan Dubai Golden Shaheen (Group 1) (Tapeta 6f) Prediction 1. Rocket Man 2. Lucky Nine 3. Krypton Factor Bet Rocket Man 5pts win @ 9/4 Bet365 This is the easiest race of the meeting for me, as I don’t see anything getting to Rocket Man. He is one of the best sprinters in the world and won this race last year by over 2 lengths. He has the perfect draw in 1 and I see no reason to oppose him. Sepoy is obviously interesting and The Factor would be a fitting winner for Bob Baffert but I think they are all playing for second place. 5.25 Meydan Dubai Duty Free (Group 1) (Turf 1m 1f) Prediction 1. Mutahadee 2. Ambitious Dragon 3. Musir Bet Mutahadee 3pts win @ 6/1 William Hill This race looks full of quality and it’s hard to pick one out but I am going to go for the Mike De Kock trained Mutahadee. The improvement shown by this horse since switching from Tommy Stack is quite astonishing and I fully expect him to be involved at the finish here. He was unlucky last time out in grade 1 company finishing 3^rd behind his stablemate Master of Hounds in what was a slowly run race. He met trouble in running that day but still managed to finish well. I think he has been trained with this race in mind, as he has had 3 runs over this CD now. He is the current 2^nd favourite and looks to have every chance. Ambitious Dragon is a horse I have backed in the past and he brings the best form from Hong Kong. He holds a few of his rivals on running over there and he is the favourite for this race. He is undoubtedly a classy horse and has the highest rating in this race at 122. He and the other runners from Honk Kong are all unproven outside of Asia and this will show us whether or not they can mix it with horses from Europe and the rest of the World. Presvis is a horse I love, and he did win this race last year but hasn’t looked the same animal since returning to action this year. Wigmore Hall is another from the UK and he too looks to have it all to do. The biggest threat to Mutahadee may well come form his stablemate Musir. I backed this horse last time out where he disappointed in behind African Story but he is much better than what he showed there. Another big danger is Await the Dawn who ran well in the Juddmonte and should be suited by the drop back in distance. Dark Shadow brings some Japanese form to the table but I suspect the Ambitious Dragon form is a little stronger. There are some fancy prices in this race for some classy horses but they all have plenty to prove. Green Destiny was very disappointing on his return to action and Delegator is unproven over this trip. Of the outsiders, City Style is interesting at 25/1 as he finished 2^nd in that race won by Master of Hounds last time out. He may be underestimated in this but I do fancy Mutahadee to reverse the form with him. This looks the first truly world-class race of the night and I can’t wait to see who wins it but I will be siding with Mutahadee. He has made a big impression on me at the festival and I think there is a big race in him. 6.00 Meydan Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1) (Turf 1m 4f) Prediction 1.St Nicholas Abbey 2. Beaten Up 3. Cirrus Des Aigles Bet St Nicholas Abbey 4pts win @ 3/1 William Hill This race has one of the smaller fields of the night but is still full of quality. It is no surprise to see mostly European trained horses in the race and I have it between St Nicholas Abbey, Beaten Up and Cirrus Des Aigles. CDA is the interesting one as he is very talented but most of his wins have come over 1m 2f. I still have a doubt over whether this trip will suit him, especially against a couple of stronger stayers. Beaten Up is the new kid on the block and he only made his racecourse debut last year but he has made a huge impression in his 3 runs to date. He has won each race with ease with his best performance coming last time out at Newbury in a group 3 contest. He won that race by over 4 lengths but was going away at the finish and that was his first run over this trip. He looks certain to be involved in the finish here and Johnny Murtagh has stated this is his best chance of a victory on the night. He does however face a massive threat in SNA who is tried and tested over this trip at the highest level. He ran a cracker to win at the Breeders Cup last year under Joseph O’Brien and he looks to have an excellent chance in this. I am surprised he isn’t the favourite for this but I expect him to be too good for Beaten Up. Bold Silvano is the forgotten horse as he was considered De Kock’s main horse for the Dubai World Cup but he has disappointed on both starts since returning to action. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he were to put in a much better performance here. Treasure Beach can’t be underestimated either as he is a group 1 winner. He does look the stable’s 2^nd string but it wouldn’t be the first time that the supposed 2^nd string were to upset the 1^st string. The Godolphin horses look to have it all to do and this is a race that they don’t have the best of records in. I am pretty confident the winner will come from CDA, SNA or Beaten Up but I fancy SNA to come out on top. It’s still early days for Beaten Up but this will give connections an idea of where they can go with this horse this season. 6.40 Meydan Dubai World Cup (Group 1) (Tapeta 1m 2 f) Prediction 1. Game on Dude 2. Capponi 3. So You think Bet Game on Dude 3pts win @ 7/1 Ladbrokes Sport has a funny way of throwing up stories and last year we had the Japanese 1,2 in this race after what was a terrible year for the country. This year I believe there is every chance we will get the same with a Bob Baffert trained winner. The trainer is over in Dubai at the moment recovering from open-heart surgery after having a heart attack earlier in the week. There is every chance he may not even get to the race-track to see his horse run but I think he goes there with every chance with Game on Dude. He is only a 5 year old but looks to be improving all the time. He is very consistent and won very easily on his return to action this year. He should have no problem with the surface having run on the dirt over in America. Bob Baffert who has won this race twice in the past rejected an invitation last year to run in the race due to injury but has decided to run this year. The draw for this race isn’t until tomorrow but I am sure connections will be hoping for an inside draw as Game on Dude likes to front run. He went so close in the Breeders Cup Classic but just make up for that in this. The current favourite is So You Think. He looks to have a great chance but has disappointed in his last 3 runs. I couldn’t be with him here at his current price. Smart Falcon brings some high-class Japanese form to the table and has won his last 9 races. He could be anything but looks the pick of the Japanese challenge. Godolphin has a couple of lively outsiders in Monterosso and Capponi. Monterosso ran an unbelievable race in this last year to finish 3^rd but the biggest threat could come form Capponi who bolted up last time out over CD at group 1 level. He has improved with every run this year and is another that like’s to front run so the drawn will be important for him as well. Of the others the Marco Botti trained Planteur must have a chance. His best form has come at around this trip and he is a group 1 winner and has some very notable scalps under his belt. Zazou is another horse worth mentioning but I will be cheering on Game on Dude.

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Re: Saturday 31 March Flat Racing Lincoln - Mull Of Killough 2pts win @ 25/1 Ladbrokes, Man of Action 2pts win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes Wrote this about Mull of Killough on my thread a while back but I have added Man of Action. Just over a month away now till this race but I quite like the look of this horse. He is stand out price with Ladbrokes at 25/1 and I am pretty sure this is his target. He won very nicely in a competitive race on his first start for Jane-Chapple Hyam at Lingfield but he is just as good on the turf. He loves big field handicaps and he did finish 3rd in the 2010 running. New surroundings and new trainer might just freshen him up and he may be able to take one of the big valuable handicaps this year.