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Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS


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If you've seen my other thread, 'Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system', you'll already be familiar with how my system works. If not, all you need to know is that ive written a system (admittedly with some help!) which takes upcoming games and works out the probability of games going over or under 2.5 goals, based on a formula which takes into account a whole load of stats and historical data based on season games, home/away records, recent form, head to heads, past season data, the lot. The difference here is that I will be taking the games which come out in the 45-55% range. This basically means that while it doesnt qualify for an 'over or under', the percentage indicates that it is very close to 2.5 exactly (you know what I mean) - SO, rather than waste these 'picks', im going to use them to pick out games for betting on the '2 or 3 goals' market. Seeing as the odds are usually no less than 1.9 and often more like 2.0, this COULD be quite lucrative. This is an idea which only came to me recently, so I've done no back-testing. But lets see how we go??? I'll list the games as before, match, percentage, and odds at william hill. Must say im curious to see how this one goes! So after tha ridiculously long intro, here we go with the first. Fingers well and truly crossed.

No.PairProbabilityOdds
1Birmingham - Ipswich52.88%1.90
This is actually 2.00 on bet365, so if you want to jump aboard id head over there. Its just the program has trouble getting the data from 365, so thats why im using william hill. Thanks
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