Jump Racing - Wednesday 16th November

[Lars]

13:30 Warwick LLAMA FARMER is surely better than a 105 rated horse over fences and this 2m4f trip might be his ideal one, having won over hurdles at this distance and not looking to have stayed trips in excess of 2m7f. Even though fitness will have to be taken on trust, Paul Webber reports him to be in “fantastic form at home” and he’s surely worth a bet now down to this workable looking mark. He’s a horse who sprung a 33/1 surprise over hurdles in his third start when gamely fighting off a challenger on soft ground at Haydock, in the process looking like a horse to follow. He was subsequently allotted a mark of 125 but he failed to handle such a rating and has fallen down the ranks since, but has shown promise on a couple of chasing starts and is no forlorn hope today. His last start back in May was over 3m2f and although travelling well for most of the race, didn’t seem to stay once push came to shove and was eased when his chance was gone. It doesn’t look a bad move whatsoever dropping back to this distance and dropped another 5lbs in the ratings, will surely go better at this more adequate trip. Fitness is an obvious issue having not run since but his previous ‘reappearance’ effort last season over this trip wasn’t half-bad, running off 20lbs higher than he does today. He travelled well that day but just ran out of gas in the last half-mile or so but this race is far easier and I wouldn’t use that as conclusive evidence that he “doesn’t go well fresh”. It was a positive effort and showed he had a future in this sphere and would pop up at some point. This race today is the weakest he’s come across and if getting back to something like his best hurdling form, he’d win this at a canter. He obviously isn’t the easiest to place and perhaps isn’t the most genuine but seemed to be jumping much better when last seen and it was merely the fact that he was racing over a distance that stretched his stamina that he folded so tamely. Paul Webber’s horses are amongst the winners and aren’t running badly and the positive reports on this one’s progress over the summer suggest there are races to be had with him. He’s still only six and probably going the right way and has fallen to a good enough mark to be of interest. This race isn’t the best with plenty having questions to answer and although the same could be said for this fellow, I feel there’s still progression within him over fences at this trip off this mark and can go really well today. He’s currently 16/1 and I feel he should be a fair bit shorter and although I’m advising win only, especially as the 1/5 place-terms aren’t that appealing and this appears to be a horse who shows a lot or nothing at all, he’s still worthy of a bet as it’s very plausible that he’ll be well-supported before the off. LLAMA FARMER; 1.5pts Win @ 16/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing - Wednesday 16th November 3.10 Hexham Wor Rom 1pt e/w 10/1 Coral Think this one is a big price here. This horse has been generally running at around 3m/3m+ in recent starts but did run a very good race over CD just 4 runs ago back in June when finishing 2nd to the now 130 rated Bescott Springs. If anything the ground today should help him as he does handle it and it will put slightly more emphasis on stmaina. The horse hails from a yard that have a good strike rate at the track and they have booked one of the top jockeys at the track for the ride today in Timmy Murphy. This will be the first time he has ridden the horse. Wor Rom returns from a little break after finishing a good second over much further at Cartmel back in August. Hopefully he will come here fit and fresh and go close to improving the trainers strike rate at the track. This is the easiest assignement this horse has had for a long time and I fully expect him to take advantage with plenty in his favour. I hope the drop back in trip today doesn't inconvinence him too much.