England V SA

[swooperman]

Not sure if I'm supposed to be doing this, but here goes. Have to feel that betting against England is the way to go in this test, sacrilege I know. England are made favourites for the 4th test @ 15/8 @ Hills, but I feel that 12/5 South Africa and certainly 11/10 the draw is my choice. Rain, indeed thunderstorms, are forecast for each day of the test, hence the draw call. I am under the impression that the light lasts longer than in the 2nd test when SA were offered light on the 5th night to escape with a draw, so some lost overs can presumably be recouped after rain. It is likely to be a fruity pitch IMO, even when dry it offers bounce and movement to the quicks, and when wet it can be very difficult. In Duncan Fletchers first tour 5 years ago, Hussain lost the toss and Donald reduced us to 2 for 4, and there has been rain this week, affecting Englands practice. I feel SA have the momentum after levelling the series, and after Englands long unbeaten run, how will they react? England have failed in 3 of the last 4 innings, with one honourable exception, and without Butcher, I fear for us. Butchers recent record isnt exceptional but he has offered consistency in the problem 3 spot. Robert Key was undercooked as a late replacement in the 3rd test, but I cant see him producing the goods here. If Englands openers are split early, this exposes Key to a fresh shaun Pollock, who is on a different plane to the poor West Indian bowlers Key scored heavily against in the summer, scoring mostly on the leg side. Pollock will not give him this freedom, indeed few test bowlers will. Vaughan follows at 4 and, although world class, is out of touch. I can see Thorpe walking in at 5 for not a lot! SA are a methodical/boring side, but I feel they are better equipped to come out top on this wicket, especially if Flintoff breaks down and exposes the rest of the bowling, as he is far from fit. If Flintoff doesnt make it, Collingwood may play. I hope I am wrong about Key and England, but I will bet against us here. For the series ENG 6/4, SA 19/10, DRAW 13/8 @ Hills.

[Postman Pat]

Re: Fourth Test, Jo'Burg Nice post. Fruity pitch it will be indeed. I tend not to worry about the weather so much, yeah more than usual games are drawn on this pitch but I think Harmy is due a big game, following his batting at the end of the last game it will have improved his fragile confidence no end. Just lay the draw, both sides have a pretty good seam attack to exploit the green pitch, it's just a case of who can get the most out of the pitch. Key is a good player of pace but would he be in the side if gayle had held that catch when he had his big knock during the windies tour of England, Bell is the better long term prospect IMO. As long as we get 4 days cricket out of the 5 I reckon we'll get a result.