Shy10ck´s pick´s 2011/2012

[Shy10ck]

Season 2011/2012

My system: My system is based on statistics, league tabel, to some degree team form and personal experience. My system don’t care about injuries, bans, sacked managers, weather conditions etc, and neither do I :-)

Betting Leagues: Premier League, Championship, League 1, League 2, Scottish PL, Bundesliga, Serie A and Primera Division.

Bookie:

Betfair

Value bets: I back/lay only estimated value, and I calculate a minimum of 5% juice to myself, after

Betfair charges.

Starting bank: 2000 money

Staking plan:

Backing = (

odds x Win probability /100) x (Win probabilty x 1,5) When the bank hits 3000 I times the win probability with 2 instead of 1,5, 4000 = 2,5, and so on.

Laying = The staking plan for Laying is the same as the staking plan for Backing, where

odds = 100/((100)-(100/Lay odds)) and Win probability = (100 - Lay probability)

For a start I think I will seperate the under 25% probabilities and the over 75% probabilities from the rest of my bets, and do a seperate accounting.

[Shy10ck]

Re: Shy10lock´s pick´s 2011/2012 5/8 2011

Hull – Blacburn, Back home, 47%, 2,44, 81 money (bet made early)

Dortmund – HSV, Lay home, 58%, 1,58, 72 money

Dortmund – HSV, Back away, 17%, 7,4, 32 money