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WH hotbox betting (greyhounds)


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So I have come across a sytem for use with the William Hill Hotbox betting market and have trialled it with 'virtual' money and have come up profitable. The hotbox: A market which takes into account the whole card of a dog racing meetng, and allows a punter to back the overall trap winner at EVERY stage in the card. 1st in a race gets 3 points, 2nd 2 and 3rd 1. The system takes advantage of the potentially high variance associated with the betting/the greyhounds. (apologies if overround is the wrong choice of word, it simply means in this context the edge the bookies has over the punter. If it is greater than 1, then the bookies has an edge. IF it is less than 1, then WE have an edge) Method: What I have done is set a bankroll of £100. I have been looking at taking advantage of the higher variance associated with dog racing and backing every single trap in the hotbox market. Suppose we have a hotbox market at the start of the card which is something like this; trap 1 - 9/1 t2 - 9/1 t3 - 4/1 t4 - 2/1 t5 - 11/4 t6 - 7/1 I would start by working out the overround for this market. In order to do this, we simply add 1 point to the odds and reverse, so t1 = 1/10 etc then back t1 and t2 (the two outsiders) at 9/1... we should stake £100 * 1/10 on these two dogs; so we stake £10 on t1 and £10 on t2, giving us a total of 0.2 on the overround. We now need the remaining 4 dogs' overround to total 0.8 Incidently, in my example the overround is 1.125 giving the bookies an edge of 12.5% on this market. Now we wait for the market to fluctuate, and we trade off any of the dogs whose odds get larger. We are hoping that t1 and t2 get a lot of points and get shorter. Suppose after 1 or 2 races t1 shortens and t2 remains the same... t1 - 4/1 t2 - 9/1 t3 - 5/1 t4 - 3/1 t5 - 13/2 t6 - 2/1 the overround is 1.18333333 on this market right now, or 18.3% edge (which is probably more accurate). BUT we have bought t1 and t2 already for 9/1 each. SO we only need to total the overround for traps 3-6!! And we need 0.8 or less for these four boxes; incidently these traps add up to 0.883333 this means that because of the earlier 0.2 I have already bought my O.R. is actually at 1.0833333. I've shaved a whole 10% of the bookies edge off all thanks to a nice swing in trap 1. You could back any dog whose odds go 8/1 or higher too, which will allow you to take better advantage of variance. I think this is a very high variance system, BUT dogs are quite unpredictable. Given the high number of races in question, I think that you can grind out some profitable results by buying at the right times. If you manage to buy 4 dogs at 8/1 then your O.R. will be 0.4444 which means the last two need to total 0.5555 or less. 3/1 or higher for both dogs will suffice here. Anyone with a bit of mathematical interest should check this system out, it might work in the long run. I will continue to test it out myself. Today I managed to pull off an overround of 0.79 after 6 races which was pretty sweet! Betting on the two outsiders off the bat is a decent idea because it is almost entirely unlikely that two dogs are not going to rack up enough points to stay in touch.

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