Learning Discipline

[captaincool]

I've decided to become more disciplined in my betting and I feel keeping a record here is the best way to do this. The threat of public shame will hopefully prevent me from backing stupid bets and this should lead to some profits. My only rule is no impulse bets, particularly live or in-play 'bankers' which have really cost me in the past. I also want to avoid loss chasing as much as possible and I think the best way to do this is to place my bets for the day early and not to deviate. I will be betting on football, tennis and major horse racing events and will use a 5 point staking system. 1pt = £20 (it'll be a long time before I place a max bet). I will be looking to make a profit of 10pts (£200) per week. So, first bet: Somdev Devvarman to beat Ryan Sweeting - 1pt @8/11 ladbrokes There's some good reasoning for this in the tennis thread. Devvarman won when the two met last week and he is a player who has looked fairly good on hard courts this year. That was one of eight losses from Sweeting in his last ten matches and he's not really good enough at ATP level. I think the odds make this a worthwhile play on a player I like.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

I've decided to become more disciplined in my betting and I feel keeping a record here is the best way to do this. The threat of public shame will hopefully prevent me from backing stupid bets and this should lead to some profits. My only rule is no impulse bets, particularly live or in-play 'bankers' which have really cost me in the past. I also want to avoid loss chasing as much as possible and I think the best way to do this is to place my bets for the day early and not to deviate. I will be betting on football, tennis and major horse racing events and will use a 5 point staking system. 1pt = £20 (it'll be a long time before I place a max bet). I will be looking to make a profit of 10pts (£200) per week. So, first bet: Somdev Devvarman to beat Ryan Sweeting - 1pt @8/11 ladbrokes There's some good reasoning for this in the tennis thread. Devvarman won when the two met last week and he is a player who has looked fairly good on hard courts this year. That was one of eight losses from Sweeting in his last ten matches and he's not really good enough at ATP level. I think the odds make this a worthwhile play on a player I like.

Not the start I had wanted for this thread. Both players were awful on serve and the match ended up being played like a WTA match with breaks almost every game! Slightly annoying that Sweeting now faces Kunitsyn or Gonzalez. If it was someone else it'd be worth opposing him but they're both very unpredictable at the moment. So far it's -1pt for the thread :(

[marlyboy]

Re: Learning Discipline Wow, captaincool, what a horrible match to start off with. I watched every point becuase I had money invested in devarrman too. Was horrified by the quality from both players. Gl with the rest of it.:hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline So, this morning is the first test of discipline and it's tough. I'm no horse racing expert but I can happily work my way through a card like today's at Goodwood but that's precisely what I want to avoid doing. I have one bet so far and that is for Fiorente @6/5. Sir Michael Stoute has won the Gordon Stakes four times in the last ten years, most famously with Harbinger a few years ago. He clearly likes to use it for some of his best horses and he has a good one in Fiorente. He looked good in his debut race and maiden win at Newbury, in what were very strong races. However, it was the second to Nathaniel in the King Edward which really confirmed the horse's promise. Nathaniel has since won the King George and it won't take anywhere near that standard to win today. Fiorente 'should' be comfortable here. I'm interested in Crown Dependency in the Molecomb Stakes. As a rule, sticking with Hannon 2-year-olds is a good route to profit and he's won this last the last two years. A strong pace will suit Crown Dependency and Richard Hughes is a good man to have on board but I'm worried about Requinto, who has won a listed race in Ireland. Betting on a place could be an idea but Hughes isn't always the man to trust to do that as he's often win or bust in big meetings. It means that he produces some long odds winners but some poor runs from fancied horses. Will mull it over but it's looking like a no bet at the moment.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline I'm back in with another two from Goodwood to finish my day's betting. Crown Dependency @9/2 All reasons stated above Strong Suit @3/1 I just think that this price is too good to ignore for a fantastic horse. He won the jersey stakes and was close to winning the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly, which is a listed race. He isn't finished improving and is well and truly confirming his 2-year-old promise. A case could be made for Delegator but he's riding under a penalty and was beaten in the July Cup. Strong Suit just ticks all the boxes and I think he should be a shorter price. So, today's racing bets: Fiorente - 1pt Strong Suit - 0.5pts Crown Dependency - 0.5pts. I can find reasons not to back anything in the tennis at Umag and Gstaad but may have a bet or two in America tonight. Seems to be a lot of love for Berankis and I can see why, so that's an interesting option. Serena Williams and Tamira Paszek stand out in the WTA matches - should both beat handicaps.

[Stephen]

Re: Learning Discipline dont think you have thought this through properly capt . at the odds you are betting i would estimate the best edge you can hope for is 10% (i doubt you have that ???) , therfore , to make 10pts pw you need to t/o 100 pts . whats your estimated t/o . dont forget discipline wont turn you into a winner if you dont have an edge .

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

dont think you have thought this through properly capt . at the odds you are betting i would estimate the best edge you can hope for is 10% (i doubt you have that ???) , therfore , to make 10pts pw you need to t/o 100 pts . whats your estimated t/o . dont forget discipline wont turn you into a winner if you dont have an edge .

Yes, you're right. The problem with this is that I'm looking to limit my bets but as you say, I need far more turnover to reach the target. I'd say at the moment that increasing turnover would be a mistake, so I'll just leave the target and see how I go. Probably worth reassessing progress after a week and we'll see what the turnover is like.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Mixed results today at Goodwood: Fiorente - beaten by a whisker, a bit unlucky. Strong Suit - won very well Crown Dependency - was finishing the best but had to much to do. Requinto won the race, so I was right to be wary of him! No profit from the three but no loss either. Not great but at least the theory was good :\

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline First time delving into football in this thread and I have a few bets this evening in the Champions League. Genk-Partizan - both to score @Evens - 2pts Biggest bet of the thread so far and I'm pretty confident in this one. Partizan's manager has said that he will look to attack the Belgians this evening and Genk have a very week defence. The home side will also be looking to attack and I can see goals. If pressed for a correct score, I'd go for 2-1 but it's similar odds for over 2.5 and both to score and I'd rather have 1-1 on my side than 3-0 either way. FC Twente (-1.5 goals) v Vaslui @Evens - 1pt I'm fairly confident here as well but will limit my stakes at the moment (don't want to get carried away). FC Twente are a strong outfit and although not quite as good as the side that won the Eredivisie, new manager Co Adriansee still has a strong squad to choose from. Their opponents have already said that they're coming to defend and I think this could end up very one sided. I think we're looking at around 3-0 for Twente and I'm happy with the -1.5 handicap. I like Rangers to win today (Malmo are really poor) but there's no value in odds of 2/5. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline One last bet today and it's from Galway. Defining Year 0.5pt win @10.5 and 1.5pt place @3.5 betfair Defining Year won at the Curragh and then came runner-up in a listed race when he began his 3-y-o career. He was pretty poor at Gowran Park but he has since been conspicuous by his absence, which suggests that something was upa nd he's being saved for today. Back to his preferred trip of 1m (was 1m3f at Gowran) and drawn perfectly, he should go close. Dermot Weld's runner may push him close but I'm happy to take the risk at a nice price.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

One last bet today and it's from Galway. Defining Year 0.5pt win @10.5 and 1.5pt place @3.5 betfair Defining Year won at the Curragh and then came runner-up in a listed race when he began his 3-y-o career. He was pretty poor at Gowran Park but he has since been conspicuous by his absence, which suggests that something was upa nd he's being saved for today. Back to his preferred trip of 1m (was 1m3f at Gowran) and drawn perfectly, he should go close. Dermot Weld's runner may push him close but I'm happy to take the risk at a nice price.

Can't fault the run just didn't have enough at the end. Third place is good though and I'm happy enough with that. A bit frustrating that Stunning View (the Dermot Weld horse I highlighted as the main danger) won :wall Again though, the analysis was sound so no reason to beat myself up about it. Will calculate the profit and loss after the football.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

First time delving into football in this thread and I have a few bets this evening in the Champions League. Genk-Partizan - both to score @Evens - 2pts Biggest bet of the thread so far and I'm pretty confident in this one. Partizan's manager has said that he will look to attack the Belgians this evening and Genk have a very week defence. The home side will also be looking to attack and I can see goals. If pressed for a correct score, I'd go for 2-1 but it's similar odds for over 2.5 and both to score and I'd rather have 1-1 on my side than 3-0 either way. FC Twente (-1.5 goals) v Vaslui @Evens - 1pt I'm fairly confident here as well but will limit my stakes at the moment (don't want to get carried away). FC Twente are a strong outfit and although not quite as good as the side that won the Eredivisie, new manager Co Adriansee still has a strong squad to choose from. Their opponents have already said that they're coming to defend and I think this could end up very one sided. I think we're looking at around 3-0 for Twente and I'm happy with the -1.5 handicap. I like Rangers to win today (Malmo are really poor) but there's no value in odds of 2/5. :hope

Genk 2 Partizan 1 FC Twente 2 Vaslui 0 Good night in the Champions League, both matches went exactly how expected. Nearly nailed both correct scores (irrelevant but nice!) So, totals: Devvarman -1pt Fiorente -1pt Strong Suit +1.5pts Crown Dependency -0.5pts Defining Year (win) -0.5pts Defining Year (place) +3.75pts Genk-Partizan +2pts FC Twente +1pt Total: +5.25pts :ok

[freddie1]

Re: Learning Discipline Very interesting and enjoyable thread. Good luck.:ok

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Okay, quite a few picks today but nothing yet for the big one. My heart says Frankel but I'm just unable to pull the trigger. It's either going to look and inspired or an idiotic no bet. Instead, I've taken the following at Goodwood: 14:00 Spirit of Adjisa - 0.5 pts win @6.0 and 2pts place @2.14 This race looks very difficult to call but I think it's easier than the odds suggest. Spirit of Adjisa last won on the flat in 2009 from a mark of 81 and he's now 3lbs higher. Fair enough, but what hasn't been noted is the huge strides the horse has made over jumps in the last 2 years (up 26lbs!). Ryan Moore has been booked and I expect a really big run today. The places are paid for the first four and if he's not in them, I'd be very surprised. It's intriguing that Bowdler's Magic is running in this race though but hopefully it isn't a coup from Mark Johnston and Spirit of Adjisa can win. 14:35 Red Duke 1pt @3.75 I can't believe that I'm going against Richard Hughes, particularly in the race before the big one, but I have to. Richard Hannon believes that the 3lb penalty for Red Duke will swing things in favour of Chandlery today but I don't. Red Duke had a really tough ride at Newmarket, constantly finding trouble but he still got out to win well and Fallon rode as if there was more to come. I think he'll have come on plenty for that and I expect a much more fluid run today, which should be too good for Chandlery. 16:00 Sunday Times 0.5pts win @5.00 and 1.5pts place @2.04 Sunday Times has entries to the Lowther and Cheveley Park, which means the connections think very highly of him and that is enough to make me side with the horse, at a decent price, in what doesn't look a particularly strong race. Onto Galway: 15:00 Galileo's Choice @2.1 1pt I backed this last night when brimming with confidence but I'm not so sure now. He's by far the best horse in the race on the flat and if he takes to hurdles he should hose up but I have a nagging doubt in my mind. Hopefully the fact that Dermot Weld is far more knowledgable than me will bring him home. 16:45 Mutasharef @2.3 2pts This horse showed loads of promise when fourth to Queen For Peace in his first run. He'll come on leaps and bounds for that and Dermot Weld (who had a treble on day one) will have targeted him at this race. I like this horse and think this could be the unveiling of a new star. 17:25 Majestic Concorde 0.5pts win @10.5 and 1pt place @3.6 Another one that I backed last night and I'm not entirely sure about now. He has the Dermot Weld factor and has been kept off the track since off the Grand National, which I'm taking as a good sign. Proven pedigree with a third here last year and a win at Leopardstown in December. There are so many, however, that now look better bets, particularly Bahrain Storm..... A massive 10pt outlay today :eek :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Okay, quite a few picks today but nothing yet for the big one. My heart says Frankel but I'm just unable to pull the trigger. It's either going to look and inspired or an idiotic no bet. Instead, I've taken the following at Goodwood: 14:00 Spirit of Adjisa - 0.5 pts win @6.0 and 2pts place @2.14 This race looks very difficult to call but I think it's easier than the odds suggest. Spirit of Adjisa last won on the flat in 2009 from a mark of 81 and he's now 3lbs higher. Fair enough, but what hasn't been noted is the huge strides the horse has made over jumps in the last 2 years (up 26lbs!). Ryan Moore has been booked and I expect a really big run today. The places are paid for the first four and if he's not in them, I'd be very surprised. It's intriguing that Bowdler's Magic is running in this race though but hopefully it isn't a coup from Mark Johnston and Spirit of Adjisa can win. 14:35 Red Duke 1pt @3.75 I can't believe that I'm going against Richard Hughes, particularly in the race before the big one, but I have to. Richard Hannon believes that the 3lb penalty for Red Duke will swing things in favour of Chandlery today but I don't. Red Duke had a really tough ride at Newmarket, constantly finding trouble but he still got out to win well and Fallon rode as if there was more to come. I think he'll have come on plenty for that and I expect a much more fluid run today, which should be too good for Chandlery. 16:00 Sunday Times 0.5pts win @5.00 and 1.5pts place @2.04 Sunday Times has entries to the Lowther and Cheveley Park, which means the connections think very highly of him and that is enough to make me side with the horse, at a decent price, in what doesn't look a particularly strong race. Onto Galway: 15:00 Galileo's Choice @2.1 1pt I backed this last night when brimming with confidence but I'm not so sure now. He's by far the best horse in the race on the flat and if he takes to hurdles he should hose up but I have a nagging doubt in my mind. Hopefully the fact that Dermot Weld is far more knowledgable than me will bring him home. 16:45 Mutasharef @2.3 2pts This horse showed loads of promise when fourth to Queen For Peace in his first run. He'll come on leaps and bounds for that and Dermot Weld (who had a treble on day one) will have targeted him at this race. I like this horse and think this could be the unveiling of a new star. 17:25 Majestic Concorde 0.5pts win @10.5 and 1pt place @3.6 Another one that I backed last night and I'm not entirely sure about now. He has the Dermot Weld factor and has been kept off the track since off the Grand National, which I'm taking as a good sign. Proven pedigree with a third here last year and a win at Leopardstown in December. There are so many, however, that now look better bets, particularly Bahrain Storm..... A massive 10pt outlay today :eek :hope

A hopeless day. Spirit of Adjisa was going along well but went backwards as the race reached the crucial point. Red Duke was the most frustrating ride of the day. Was totally boxed in and had to pretty much stop at one point. Chandlery won though, shouldn't have gone against Hughes! Sunday Times was a very near miss. He had a brilliant run and was pipped to a place in a bunched finish. Galileo's Choice won really well. Mutasharef came third. Not really sure what was going on here, big drift in the market and then let the winner (Catch the Moment) far too big a lead. Finished strongly but by then it was all over. Majestic Concorde was pulled up after a nasty landing. Didn't fall but almost unseat Paul Carberry and looked like it could have been a sore one, hope he's okay! Overall an 8pt loss, which brings me back to a whopping -3.75. Too many bets in tough races was the problem today, should have just piled in on Frankel instead! :loon

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Very late pick here but Maunsell's Duke has been included in the field for the 18:00 at Galway due to someone dropping out and he's being well backed for my man Dermot Weld. Has had a breathing operation and should take all the beating. The money is worth noting and I think it'll win and I'd be surprised if he's not in the top four. 1pt win @6.00 3pts place @2.24

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Very late pick here but Maunsell's Duke has been included in the field for the 18:00 at Galway due to someone dropping out and he's being well backed for my man Dermot Weld. Has had a breathing operation and should take all the beating. The money is worth noting and I think it'll win and I'd be surprised if he's not in the top four. 1pt win @6.00 3pts place @2.24

Winner :clap Glad I noticed this one, he wasn't in the field last night but was always going to be the classiest in the race if included. +8.75 on this bet, which redeems the rest of the day's losses.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline One bet on the football tonight: Benfica (-1.5 goals) v Trabzonspor 2pts @Evens Benfica are simply too good for Trabzonspor, who won't be able to cope with them in Lisbon tonight. The attack of Cardozo, Saviola, Aimar and Nolito is a really exciting one and I see plenty of goals tonight. Even although there's a lot of money in Turkey, there isn't the quality in the league and I think Trabzonspor might get a bit of a showing up here. Can easily see this one ending 3 or 4 nil and I'm happy to take Benfica (-1.5). :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

One bet on the football tonight: Benfica (-1.5 goals) v Trabzonspor 2pts @Evens Benfica are simply too good for Trabzonspor, who won't be able to cope with them in Lisbon tonight. The attack of Cardozo, Saviola, Aimar and Nolito is a really exciting one and I see plenty of goals tonight. Even although there's a lot of money in Turkey, there isn't the quality in the league and I think Trabzonspor might get a bit of a showing up here. Can easily see this one ending 3 or 4 nil and I'm happy to take Benfica (-1.5). :ok

2-0 for a profit of +2pts. The overall profit total now stands at a very healthy +7pts :clap

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Sorry for the double post but I didn't want to edit anything to look like I was fudging numbers! Day Three Recap Busiest day of the thread by far and it almost turned out disasterous, with a lumpy kind of bet on Maunsell's Duke turning an 8pt loss on the racing at Goodwood and Galway into a 0.75pt profit on the horses. I was confident in the pick but I think the bet size was maybe a bit much. It's strange, racing is my weakest area but it's where I tend to have my biggest bets. I think I get carried away in all of the excitement! Interesting to note that my two biggest racing wins have come from late picks, perhaps I'd be better waiting until nearer the off with selections when the market has had plenty of time to stabilise? The football bets have been good - 3 from 3 is a strike rate that can't be argued with and I'm happy with my analysis of the matches so far. Football is definitely my strongest suit and over time it will show the best strike rate. The problem is that I know football well enough to know that long term profits are difficult and wins can be very lucky (maybe I need to learn this for racing!) Haven't had a tennis bet since Devvarman's defeat. That's changing this evening with the following: Elena Baltacha to beat Virginie Razzano 2.24 betfair - 1pt This is a bet both on Baltacha and against Razzano. The British girl has been playing some of her career best tennis of late and she's threatening to break into the top 50 this season (think she's been 49th once before). She's not much better than that but is honest and will give her all. Tonight she plays Razzano who is struggling at the moment. Her fiance sadly passed away recently and she has taken some time out, interspersed with some poor performances. She beat Doi in the last round but I'm not reading too much into that as Doi is a challenger player who got lucky at Wimbledon and so is given too much respect. It might be a slog today but I think Baltacha's will to win will be greater than Razzano's. Ryan Harrison to beat Michael Russell 1.75 betfair - 3pts I had considered opposing Harrison against Berankis as I thought he was being over-rated but it seems like his recent good form is something to be respected. He's only 19 and improving all the time so the more consistency he shows, the better. He played well in Atlanta last week and his serve was very good. He also showed good heart coming from a set behind against veterans Malisse and Ram. He's playing another 'oldie', Michael Russell, tonight and he'll be really confident that he can beat the 33 year old. Russell beat Tursunov in round one, but so what? Tursunov is awful at the moment and the fact that he took three sets is a criticism. He lost to Anderson last week and Harrison will play a similar big serving style to the South African. The youngster has won the last two meetings (both this year) between the pair and Harrison even took a set when they met when he was only 17. I fancy him to get another good win today.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Haven't had a tennis bet since Devvarman's defeat. That's changing this evening with the following: Elena Baltacha to beat Virginie Razzano 2.24 betfair - 1pt This is a bet both on Baltacha and against Razzano. The British girl has been playing some of her career best tennis of late and she's threatening to break into the top 50 this season (think she's been 49th once before). She's not much better than that but is honest and will give her all. Tonight she plays Razzano who is struggling at the moment. Her fiance sadly passed away recently and she has taken some time out, interspersed with some poor performances. She beat Doi in the last round but I'm not reading too much into that as Doi is a challenger player who got lucky at Wimbledon and so is given too much respect. It might be a slog today but I think Baltacha's will to win will be greater than Razzano's. Ryan Harrison to beat Michael Russell 1.75 betfair - 3pts I had considered opposing Harrison against Berankis as I thought he was being over-rated but it seems like his recent good form is something to be respected. He's only 19 and improving all the time so the more consistency he shows, the better. He played well in Atlanta last week and his serve was very good. He also showed good heart coming from a set behind against veterans Malisse and Ram. He's playing another 'oldie', Michael Russell, tonight and he'll be really confident that he can beat the 33 year old. Russell beat Tursunov in round one, but so what? Tursunov is awful at the moment and the fact that he took three sets is a criticism. He lost to Anderson last week and Harrison will play a similar big serving style to the South African. The youngster has won the last two meetings (both this year) between the pair and Harrison even took a set when they met when he was only 17. I fancy him to get another good win today.

Razzano was too good for Baltacha tonight. 6-4, 6-2 winner. No complaints as the Italian's a better player and deserved the win. I won't bet against here from now on but I still won't be backing her as I'd imagine she'll still have a few blips along the way (her husband was also her coach, btw). Harrison was never in any doubt. He won 6-4, 6-3 but it could have been even more comfortable. He slacked off a couple of times but it didn't matter, Russell isn't good enough and I wouldn't be surprised if there are over 100 ranking places between the two players this time next year. So, full day's profit/loss: Spirit of Adjisa -2.5pts Red Duke -1pt Sunday Times -2pts Galileo's Choice +1pt Mutasharef -2pts Majestic Concorde -1.5pts Maunsell's Duke +8.75pts Benfica handicap +2pts Ryan Harrison +2.25pts Elena Baltacha -1pt Day Three Total +4pts Previous Total +5.25pts New Total +9.25 Overall I've placed £580 worth of bets (29pts) and have made a profit of £185. Fairly pleased so far.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Day Four, here we go! First bet of the day: Nottingham 16:05 - Terdaad 1pt @4.6 Saeed Bin Suroor has a massive 45% strike rate at this track and uses it as a training ground for some good horses. Terdaad looks like another one that could prove quite useful. He won a maiden at Kempton in October but has since been gelded and his absence from the track suggests they're waiting for a winning opportunity. The danger will come from Hayley Turner on Set to Music but a 10lb penalty might prevent a hat-trick for the Michael Bell horse. At the moment there's nothing in the place market but I'll keep an eye on it and if I can get close to evens I'll bite.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline On to Goodwood and hopefully can do a lot better than yesterday! :loon 14:15 Fulgur 0.5pts win @6.2 and 2pts place @2.1 This horse looks certain to be running in group company in the future and his win at Newmarket in July was very impressive. He beat Labarinto that day but gives away 9lbs to his rival today. That should make it closer and the Sir Michael Stoute horse is respected (hence the small win bet) but I can't see four others finishing ahead of Fulgur. Fallon owes me after his joke of a ride on Red Jazz yesterday! 16:20 Santarini 1pt win @4.6 Richard Hannon's record with 2-year-olds is incredible and Santarini and Star of Bombay look likely to be the pick of the bunch here. Richard Hughes rides Santarini and he is on fire at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hannon 1-2 here. 16:55 Casual Glimpse to be placed 0.5pts @5.5 Hannon holds a strong hand here with three runners and Hughes has decided that Casual Glimpse is the pick of the bunch. I'm not sure that he's quite good enough to win but you have to assume he's better than Sinfonico and King of Jazz and I wouldn't have thought Hannon would be running three without expecting something. The price is good enough for a punt. Fancy Wild Coco as well but favourites have a terrible record in the Lillie Langtry Stakes, so that's putting me off a bit. Even still, she has an entry to the St. Leger and that's useless unless she wins here. Tom Queally on board. If memory serves me correctly he didn't rider her in the recent win at Newmarket so I'm not sure if he's a positive or negative. He rode two winners yesterday though.....

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Three from Galway today: 15:00 Rock Critic 2pts @3.8 My man Dermot Weld again and he teams up with Pat Smullen on the favourite, which spells trouble for the rest of the runners. Rock Critic won this race by 8 lengths last year and he was also a comfortable winner at Naas in 2010. He has had a long lay off but he's at his best fresh and he's clearly been aimed at this race. I expect him to go off far shorter than the current price and I'm fairly confident of a win here. 16:50 The Real Article to be placed 2pts @2.00 and Captain Cee Bee to be placed 1pt @3.5 This is an interesting race because there was a great deal of controversy the last time The Real Article and Captain Cee Bee met at Tipperary. The Edward O'Grady horse seemed to be held after the last, which allowed Captain Cee Bee to win and he seems a stick on for this one. He's a short price, however, and who knows what will happen, so I'm playing safe. I think Captain Cee Bee will challenge again and with four places paid, I'll take them both to finish in the money.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Finished with two more at Goodwood. Wild Coco 2pts @2.68 Reasons stated above and I can't ignore the chances of this filly, especially as the price is shortening up. Let's hope she can prove her obvious claims. Fox Hunt 0.5pts win @8.8 and 1.5pts place @3.25 This is a horse that I'm hearing a lot about this morning. A rapidly improving sort from Mark Johnston (who has a great strike rate at Goodwood) and I think there's potential for it to go off as favourite. Silverstre De Sousa is on board and he's flying at the moment. Expecting a good run. 14pt outlay today, which equates to a whopping £280. Let's hope for some good things! :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline One tennis bet for today: Treble - Almagro, Cilic & Verdasco 2.5pts @Evens william hill Almagro is playing fantastic on clay this year and has won more matches than anyone else on the ATP tour on the surface. He lost to Simon last week in the final in Hamburg but he didn't drop a set en route. He should be too strong for Nieminen, who he's beaten the last three times they've met. Cilic hasn't had a great year but he looked a lot better at Hamburg and he'll want to get some wins under his belt before the Masters swing. Haase scraped past Vagnozzi in the first round and hasn't been playing as well recently as he did at the start of the year. Cilic leads the head-to-head 2-0 and should make it three today. Verdasco is a player I like. He's great to watch and can play some fantastic top 10 standard tennis at times. He can be a bit hit and miss and often makes some stupid errors. I don't think that should matter today against Gil, who has been off form for a while, losing to some very weak players. Verdasco won 7-6, 6-1 the last time they met and should be able to take it down in two again. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

14:15 Fulgur 0.5pts win @6.2 and 2pts place @2.1 16:20 Santarini 1pt win @4.6 16:55 Casual Glimpse to be placed 0.5pts @5.5

Three from Galway today: 15:00 Rock Critic 2pts @3.8 16:50 The Real Article to be placed 2pts @2.00 and Captain Cee Bee to be placed 1pt @3.5

Finished with two more at Goodwood. Wild Coco 2pts @2.68 Fox Hunt 0.5pts win @8.8 and 1.5pts place @3.25

Nottingham 16:05 - Terdaad 1pt @4.6

A real 'what could have been' day with a number of close calls/bad decisions going against me. In order: Fulgur - 5th (4 paid) and another bad ride from Fallon IMO. He gave the horse too much to do and while he wouldn't have caught Labarinto, he should have been much closer. I don't know why he insists on riding horses where they are likely to need some luck to get out. Won't back him again this week. -2.5pts Santarini - Nowhere, just a bad call, pure and simple. -1pt Casual Glimpse - Won! :wall Great ride from Hughes, great price and I took 0.5pts on a place. +2.25pts Rock Critic - Won by a country mile. Fantastic run and blew the field apart. Great to watch with the only negative the fact that he went off at something like 4.8 and I took a shorter price. No harm done. To make things easy to calculate I'll say +5.5pts The Real Article - Third. I reckon he was good enough to win but it would have been a controversial thing. +2pts Captain Cee Bee - Nowhere. He never really got going and it was a strange ride from McCoy. I think he should have been more prominent. Big market move so probably a few frustrated punters. -1pt Wild Coco - Ugh. The worst pick of the thread I think. He was a big disappointment and Queally didn't get anything out of him. I really regret going in after deciding against the bet. That's a real lack of discipline! -2pts Fox Hunt - 4th. First 3 paid :wall Nothing wrong with this pick at all. He looked good, finished strongly and was out of the places on a photo. I think the fact that Hughes had opened up the field worked against him. I'd like to see that race run again, without Overturn. I reckon Fox Hunt would be in with a great chance. -2pts Terdaad - Non runner, stakes returned. Overall +1.25pts but really could have been so much more!

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Tonight's football: Young Boys (-1.5) v Westerlo 2pts @Evens Young Boys gave Spurs a tanking in Switzerland in Champions League qualifying then were pretty successful in the Europa League, reaching the last 16. They're a good, positive side and I expect them to go for goals tonight. Westerlo are an average Belgian side who have sold their main attacking player (Paulo Henrique) to Trabzonspor. I can't see them offering much here and reckon we'll see 2-0 or more. Split v Fulham - under 2.5 - 2pts @1.85 I think both teams will want to keep this game tight. Fulham will simply want to get out of Austria without losing and will hope to get the job done back at Craven Cottage, while Split will be wary of a team that reached the final of this competition two years ago. I don't see Split scoring at all and I don't see Fulham getting three but I'm happy with cover in case it ends 1-1. Levski Sofia to beat Spartak Trvana 4pts @1.67 Biggest bet of the thread so far. I class Levski Sofia as a much better team than Spartak Trvana and they are a side that always likes to do well in the Europa League. They sailed through the qualifiers last season and so know what it takes to win these kind of games. Their strikers scored 5 goals between them in the last round and I think they should win tonight. Short odds but stakes make up for that (if it wins!)

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Tonight's football: Young Boys (-1.5) v Westerlo 2pts @Evens Young Boys gave Spurs a tanking in Switzerland in Champions League qualifying then were pretty successful in the Europa League, reaching the last 16. They're a good, positive side and I expect them to go for goals tonight. Westerlo are an average Belgian side who have sold their main attacking player (Paulo Henrique) to Trabzonspor. I can't see them offering much here and reckon we'll see 2-0 or more. Split v Fulham - under 2.5 - 2pts @1.85 I think both teams will want to keep this game tight. Fulham will simply want to get out of Austria without losing and will hope to get the job done back at Craven Cottage, while Split will be wary of a team that reached the final of this competition two years ago. I don't see Split scoring at all and I don't see Fulham getting three but I'm happy with cover in case it ends 1-1. Levski Sofia to beat Spartak Trvana 4pts @1.67 Biggest bet of the thread so far. I class Levski Sofia as a much better team than Spartak Trvana and they are a side that always likes to do well in the Europa League. They sailed through the qualifiers last season and so know what it takes to win these kind of games. Their strikers scored 5 goals between them in the last round and I think they should win tonight. Short odds but stakes make up for that (if it wins!)

Good night again on the football - 3/3 makes it 6/6 overall :nana Young Boys were comfortable, winning 3-1 +2pts As expected the Split-Fulham match was very cagey, finished goal-less, which is as good as you can hope for from an unders bet +1.75pts Levski game was crazy! I watched the last 15 minutes and saw Trvana take an undeserved lead then Levski scored twice in the last 2 mins to win the game! +2.5pts (I've rounded down profits just to make calculations easier) So, tonight's profit was +6.25pts. Add that to the 1.25pts from the racing and it makes it a nice +7.5pts today. Overall we now have: Total Bets: 42.5pts Total Profit: +14.25pts Pending: 2.5pts (tennis treble - Cilic and Verdaso both won, Almagro match suspended on serve in first set). Incidentally, I've worked out that I'm around 10pts DOWN for Goodwood, which makes the totals look very impressive indeed (it does suggest that I don't know what I'm doing at Goodwood though!)

[ShanghaiPunter]

Re: Learning Discipline :clap keep it up bruv! nice going so far....