HT/FT - profits from favourites?

[stefanos56]

First time I’ve ever started a thread so hope I’ve put it in the right place. Basically, it’s about trying to stretch out some odds when backing favourites. Before I go any further, I’ll be the first to admit that it’s a crude and simplistic approach with some flaws, but I’m not proposing a perfect system. At the moment it’s based on very basic criteria outlined under “assumptions” but I welcome any feedback or suggestions to make it more sophisticated later on. I’ll try to be concise in my explanation:

	Match	Favourite (odds)	X1	11	X2	22	Min Profit	Max Profit	Current Bank
									£100
Everton Ladies v Chelsea Ladies	Everton (23/20)	9/2	5/2	--	--	£7.50	£17.50
Dnepr Mogilev v Dinamo Brest	Mogilev (13/10)	9/2	11/4	--	--	£8.75	£17.50
Atletico MG v Vasco De Gama	Atletico (6/5)	9/2	11/4	--	--	£8.75	£17.50
Bahia v Coritiba	Bahia (6/4)	5/1	3/1	--	--	£10	£20
Gent v Getafe	Getafe (13/8)	--	--	11/2	7/2	£12.50	£22.50

[Jase82]

Re: HT/FT - profits from favourites? Personally, I think it's a miconception that this system of backing heavy favourites in the HT/FT market will make profit in the longer term, but I wish you GL :ok It's a very obvious method of thinking, and due to the high expectation for a comfortable win, there will be a seemingly unpradictable amount of losers. The odds are still very skinny too and gambling is about predicting future events, where as these type of systems are more about following what has come before. If you are serious about making this system work, I would put in the research into different leagues to see how many favourites won at HT and FT, and what odds they were. Stick to one league or something....the league that produces the highest amount of HT/FT winners from favourites. Also, you need to determine what a favourite to you is....is that a side that is priced up under 1.50? 1.60? 1.70? IMO, if you increase the criteria of what you consider to be a favourite it will be harder to keep your selections defined. Overall, working on assumptions won't get very far, as there appears to be no background reasearch or thought process behind the selection criteria, or the system. If you can call it a system because this is a very popular idea that many many punters come to the same conclusion over.