Oddsmaker required

[mayfly]

Our newly launched state of the art betting facility SO_YOU_WANNA_BE_A_BOOKIE_EH.COM requires an oddsmaker in their Soccer Dept. Applicants need to show diversity and insight which puts them ahead of the field and allows the Company to be at the cutting edge of betting propositions. In order to give every applicant a chance of this prestigious position we are asking them to forward their prices on this Saturdays SLIGO v ST PATRICKS Soccer game. (Professionals like Mister Magoo and Alexc are more than welcome) We are looking for 12X and 2.5 goal markets, please specify how you arrived at your conclusions. Yes its only a bit of fun but dont be shy in coming forward and giving your reasoning. Hopefully I can comment on your figures and how you arrived at them. My aim is by Saturday for everyone to have a comprehensive view of this game compared to the off the cuff position many find themselves in constantly. So. Who's 1st, Mr Magoo? :ok

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED I forgot to say I selected this game as it holds many of the quandries that are found across the Soccer spectrum. Normally I would put a line through a game like this but it serves a good example. :ok

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Looking at the last ten years of results from the Irish Premier it seems that home wins are relatively well calibrated to predictions, and away wins are almost perfectly calibrated. Using my standard Poisson model with no adjustments for the calibration I get these probabilities: Sligo: 53% St Patricks: 21% Draw: 26% Adjusting for historical calibration, I believe the probabilities look more like this: Sligo: 52% St Patricks: 21% Draw: 27% Giving odds of: Sligo: 1.92 St Patricks: 4.76 Draw: 3.70 I don't currently price the 2.5 market, so I'll leave that to others. EDIT: This has been edited as excel was misleading me as to the predictability and calibration of the league, recreating the sheet fixed the errors.

[Evertonboy]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Using the current season and previous season form I have come up with the following (I use this form as within the past 2 seasons most teams will have suffered a poor run, injury crisis etc and played everyone atleast twice (disregarding promoted teams)); Base Prices (Approx 100% book) Sligo 2.00 Draw 3.57 St Pats 4.55 Under 2.5 1.92 Over 2.5 2.08 Prices with Overround Sligo 1.82 Draw 3.33 St Pats 4.00 Under 2.5 1.79 Over 2.5 1.92 However, comparing my recommended prices with the market it seems I think Sligo have less chance than the other odds compilers (despite a Sligo win being the most likely result). With that in mind I'd go top price about Sligo and look to take them them on. Revised Prices Sligo 1.69 Draw 3.45 St Pats 5.00

[robkor]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Hi, Based only on goal statistics I get these expectations 1.67...0.73 Which gives 1 ... 1.70 2 ... 6.87 X ... 3.74 U2.5 ... 1.74 O2.5 ... 2.36 Next Goal ... 1.59 ... 3.66 ... 10.38 etc, etc... There are probably some minor adjustments to be done for injuries. Regards

[Shy10ck]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Without any knowledge of Irish football, my strength rating system gives approx: Sligo: 46% Draw: 29% St Partick: 25% Which in my book make these odds playable: Sligo: over 2,28 Draw: over 3,62 St Patrick: over 4,2

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Firstly I’d like to thank you gentlemen for your posts, without them my thoughts would be harder to put across. It’s obvious that each poster has his/her unique set of statistics to arrive at their conclusions, the fact that the prices vary considerably is of no consequence at this time. However, they do all have one thing in common and that is they have priced this game up from a bettors point of view and not my original request, which was for a firm of bookmakers. This may seem confusing to most but the subtle difference in how an oddsmaker thinks and how a punter thinks can give a totally different view to an event. (In a match on betfair why do the vast majority put in a bet rather than a lay?) Making a point of understanding a bookmakers position helps in two major ways, firstly it trains your mind to view a proposition from another angle compared to your own (which you may later get anchored to) thus giving some flexibility and secondly it gives you a knowledge of where the margins are best positioned, this can be of help when pre-empting market moves. Above all it puts you in a better position than your betting comrades along with developing a better grasp of randomness. Punters generally never think of how randomness will effect their bets especially odds on but bookmakers are well aware that at some stage it will snare their victims. Oddsmakers are not interested in what happened last year or even 3 Months ago, 99% of their customers are geared to the most recent events and like fish, are attracted to certain numbers and situations. That’s why recent form and the home teams win percentage are first on the odds maker’s agenda, normally these are a secondary consideration to most of the more informed people who make their own prices. I use Soccerstats.com for most of my stats and within no time you can see that Sligo’s home win record of 81% coupled with better form over recent games puts the oddsmaker on red alert. The immediate danger is even pricing this game up with realistic statistics, big bettors will still weigh in heavily on the favourite so they will already be looking to maximise that margin. Although all our posters had the draw priced at about 27% the oddsmakers know full well that they wont lay anywhere near that percentage of their takings so the draw is of little consequence to them, in fact its their biggest randomiser. Pushed for time at the moment but I will be posting more later. :ok

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

Firstly I’d like to thank you gentlemen for your posts, without them my thoughts would be harder to put across. It’s obvious that each poster has his/her unique set of statistics to arrive at their conclusions, the fact that the prices vary considerably is of no consequence at this time. However, they do all have one thing in common and that is they have priced this game up from a bettors point of view and not my original request, which was for a firm of bookmakers. This may seem confusing to most but the subtle difference in how an oddsmaker thinks and how a punter thinks can give a totally different view to an event. (In a match on betfair why do the vast majority put in a bet rather than a lay?) Making a point of understanding a bookmakers position helps in two major ways, firstly it trains your mind to view a proposition from another angle compared to your own (which you may later get anchored to) thus giving some flexibility and secondly it gives you a knowledge of where the margins are best positioned, this can be of help when pre-empting market moves. Above all it puts you in a better position than your betting comrades along with developing a better grasp of randomness. Punters generally never think of how randomness will effect their bets especially odds on but bookmakers are well aware that at some stage it will snare their victims. Oddsmakers are not interested in what happened last year or even 3 Months ago, 99% of their customers are geared to the most recent events and like fish, are attracted to certain numbers and situations. That’s why recent form and the home teams win percentage are first on the odds maker’s agenda, normally these are a secondary consideration to most of the more informed people who make their own prices. I use Soccerstats.com for most of my stats and within no time you can see that Sligo’s home win record of 81% coupled with better form over recent games puts the oddsmaker on red alert. The immediate danger is even pricing this game up with realistic statistics, big bettors will still weigh in heavily on the favourite so they will already be looking to maximise that margin. Although all our posters had the draw priced at about 27% the oddsmakers know full well that they wont lay anywhere near that percentage of their takings so the draw is of little consequence to them, in fact its their biggest randomiser. Pushed for time at the moment but I will be posting more later. :ok

Bookmakers tend to give odds that, especially on short favourites, are well calibrated. As such, the notion that they bend all of their odds on each match towards market action is very questionable. In fact research done on the odds points towards the overround being generally concentrated on the long-shots, and as such bookies take a large portion of their winnings from the market due to upsets, with leaner periods between such events.

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED I had already written a reply to the new thread so posting it along with the earlier one might make things clearer. The reason for the thread was to show how an oddsmaker working for a bookmaker has a different approach to the assessment a punter would give. I asked for volunteers to price up the SLIGO -ST PATRICKS game tomorrow and possibly state how they arrived at those prices. The no margin prices I received were, 1.92, 4.76, draw 3.70 1.70, 6.87, draw 3.74 2.00, 4.55, draw 3.57 2.28, 3.50, draw 3.62. For the record using my preferred stats, I came up with the following. 1.98, 4.35, draw 3.74 The first thing this shows is how diverse the prices can be when using different stats, like me I’m sure all four have good reasons for selecting their choice of stats to work on. With the exception of the 2nd row and only he can tell us, it would appear that none (including mine) are looking at the same stats as a potential bookmakers oddsmaker. Because the majority of bettors minds only hold recent memories and stand out stats especially if there aired on TV or in Newspapers, the first stats of interest to oddsmakers are the very same recent form and a stand out stat. Sligo’s 81% home win percentage along with better recent form would instantly point to respecting certain stats over others. By using those certain stats I come up with 1.70, 6.90, draw 3.74 As for the margins, I’m never concerned with the draw for reasons I will give later but in this case I would be very wary of Sligo’s price and put the majority of it there. I’m not sure but I think it was v-zero who commented on where margins usually go and I agree with him that in Moneyline events especially American, the margin is nearly always on the underdog. The problem with soccer is it potentially has more price movement and its therefore prudent for the bookmakers to put the margin where they expect that movement. I hope that goes some way in explaining how people come up with differing odds and highlights the importance of knowing where the bookmakers consider their weaknesses on an event. I did put in £500 @ 1.7 hoping to steal the price of a breakfast but it looks like that’s going to be a non runner. :ok

[Mulkis]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED How are you going to evaluate accuracy of the proposed odds?

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

How are you going to evaluate accuracy of the proposed odds?

What I'm trying to put across at this level is anchoring to one set of figures is not good, so the need to be accurate isnt the point, far more important is how one uses the figures at hand. This was an easy game where we put the cart before the horse but normally the bookmakers prices will tell you if your missing something, in this case a good home win % and better recent form. Those 2 points were not picked up in at least 4 of our 5 assessments and what at first glance looks a very good asian h'cap bet on St Patricks doesnt look as good when you consider those points. I personally dont bet odds on and wont fall for inflated prices on underdogs playing these teams so I only consider games where neither team is odds on in the 12X market. I picked this game because I knew it had the differences I wanted to highlight which I think it has. :ok

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

What I'm trying to put across at this level is anchoring to one set of figures is not good' date=' so the need to be accurate isnt the point, far more important is how one uses the figures at hand. This was an easy game where we put the cart before the horse but normally the bookmakers prices will tell you if your missing something, [b']in this case a good home win % and better recent form. Those 2 points were not picked up in at least 4 of our 5 assessments and what at first glance looks a very good asian h'cap bet on St Patricks doesnt look as good when you consider those points. I personally dont bet odds on and wont fall for inflated prices on underdogs playing these teams so I only consider games where neither team is odds on in the 12X market. I picked this game because I knew it had the differences I wanted to highlight which I think it has. :ok

There is nothing in the results for either side that is not accounted for in my time-weighted analysis. The fact that you cite home win percentage over home goal differential is strange, since goal differential is significantly more predictive than win percentage. The fact that the markets believe Sligo are 8% more likely to win than I do is likely to do with the inherent recent form bias that comes with a market model. The market is well calibrated because this recent form bias favours the dog as often as it favours the favourite, but that doesn't mean it is always more right than a well informed model.

[Mulkis]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Ok, Mayfly. But I catch you another time:ok

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

There is nothing in the results for either side that is not accounted for in my time-weighted analysis. The fact that you cite home win percentage over home goal differential is strange, since goal differential is significantly more predictive than win percentage. The fact that the markets believe Sligo are 8% more likely to win than I do is likely to do with the inherent recent form bias that comes with a market model. The market is well calibrated because this recent form bias favours the dog as often as it favours the favourite, but that doesn't mean it is always more right than a well informed model.

I never said anything to suggest the bookmakers line was correct only that the fact that it differs so much means they obviously are accounting for something we're not. Once your happy that whatever it is isnt significant it only reinforces your view. There's probably little point in us discussing the matter really as its obvious we have differing views which are not going to change. You think its because of a inherent recent form bias that comes with a market model. I think its because they have won their last 4 home games, won 8-0 last week and to offer 10/11 would cause a stampede. :ok

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

I never said anything to suggest the bookmakers line was correct only that the fact that it differs so much means they obviously are accounting for something we're not. Once your happy that whatever it is isnt significant it only reinforces your view. There's probably little point in us discussing the matter really as its obvious we have differing views which are not going to change. You think its because of a inherent recent form bias that comes with a market model. I think its because they have won their last 4 home games' date=' won 8-0 last week and to offer 10/11 would cause a stampede. :ok[/quote'] I'm not trying to say anybody is wrong, or right, I'm just trying to offer an alternative view. Their recent home form has been good, but their 8 goal win was over a team that is so pitiful that it isn't worth a massive amount statistically.

[Shy10ck]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Or it could be St Patricks euro game yesterday???

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

I'm not trying to say anybody is wrong' date=' or right, I'm just trying to offer an alternative view. Their recent home form has been good, but their 8 goal win was over a team that is so pitiful that it isn't worth a massive amount statistically.[/quote'] I agree but thousands in pubs across Ireland wont see it that way Paddy: How you see the game going tonight Mick? :unsure Mick: Sligo will piss it, they've not let a goal in in 2 months!!! and they put 8 past Galway last week :p Paddy: But Galway are useless mick. :puke Mick: Well you still have to put them away, easy beer money. :rollin

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

Or it could be St Patricks euro game yesterday???

Correct :ok

[Shy10ck]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Evaluating the Sligo-St Patrick match, I wonder why fx Pinnaclesport offered 1,50 - 4,23 - 8,06 and Bet365 offered 1,45 - 4,00 - 7,00 I acknowledge that St Patricks Euro game should have a certain impact of the odds offered, but Sligos 81% home win (which probably not will stand) and good form, I think, only is a reflection of the current league standing. St Patrick is in the league table close to equal with to Sligo and there form is, looking only at the statistics, ok. That should call for odds far more even, and I think there was very good value in the draw and the away win. I admit I now nothing about, the statistics of Irish football, but I asume its not that different from the english leagues? and I dont now nothing about injuries or bans that could have an impact on the odds?

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

Evaluating the Sligo-St Patrick match, I wonder why fx Pinnaclesport offered 1,50 - 4,23 - 8,06 and Bet365 offered 1,45 - 4,00 - 7,00 I acknowledge that St Patricks Euro game should have a certain impact of the odds offered, but Sligos 81% home win (which probably not will stand) and good form, I think, only is a reflection of the current league standing. St Patrick is in the league table close to equal with to Sligo and there form is, looking only at the statistics, ok. That should call for odds far more even, and I think there was very good value in the draw and the away win. I admit I now nothing about, the statistics of Irish football, but I asume its not that different from the english leagues? and I dont now nothing about injuries or bans that could have an impact on the odds?

The true view of the bookies was made very clear on Betfair, as they bet heavily against Sligo just before the off, taking their odds from a low of 1.56 up to 1.7 in the space of less than an hour.

[mayfly]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Good Evening Gentlemen, I hope your having a good weekend. :D There's no point in discussing a result of a game as it only comfirms your view or disproves some of your theories, either way could give a false impression as its only one game in isolation. I started this thread to show less experienced punters how prices vary even amongst people who would say they are experienced and their particular model works fine. The point is to always take on board why the bookmakers have priced up in a certain way as its their odds you are betting against. It may be they're looking at a stat that you consider insignificant or an expectation of weight of money or more likely, something you have missed. Whatever it is your better off looking into it rather than what you usually see on betting forums, posters blindly betting because their model suggests a value bet compared to the prices. :ok

[Shy10ck]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED I am not sure that I agree with your point of view, about always take on board why the bookmakers prices as they do. In a timeless world, yes, but it is rather time consuming to look up every odds offered by the the bookmakers. When I finds value that exceeds a 5% safety zone, I dont hesitate to place a standard bet. It can at most be a minor mistake and that is a risk I think is worth taking, when it allow me to look for value in multiple leagues. I of course, always look for ways to improve my system, and that is what I have been doing this weekend … so it has been good, thx :-) PS: I totally agree with your point of view, when it comes to trading.

[ajaxAgain]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Completely agree, regardless of how good a model or your analysis is you have to assume the bookies with their infinite resources is better. Therefore your own data can only be trusted to highlight bets that warant further investigation, not guarenteed value. Only once you've analysed why your odds differ can you satisfy yourself that there is a true edge that can be exploited for profit.

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

Completely agree' date=' regardless of how good a model or your analysis is you have to assume the bookies with their infinite resources is better. Therefore your own data can only be trusted to highlight bets that warant further investigation, not guarenteed value. Only once you've analysed why your odds differ can you satisfy yourself that there is a true edge that can be exploited for profit.[/quote'] The bookies are market makers. Once upon a time they had all the power, but now that exchanges exist that represent the market view rather than the view of the bookies, they have to be in line with these prices, otherwise they would offer up countless arb opportunities. As such, the odds they offer represent the crows view, and can be skewed as such. For evidence that a model, without further human interaction, can make a profit, see matchodds.org...

[Datapunter]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Have you considered the possibilty it is actually the bookmakers that determine the Betfair market ? ( the question is not directed to anyone in particular ) Not saying it is so, just consider it. First of all by the time the markets on Betfair have any significant liquidity in them the bookmaker odds are long known. Is it really the punter that determines his price independently of the bookmaker ? If the top 3 bookmakers in the UK have a team priced at 1.20 then a large number of punters will take this as gospel and accept that team to be hot favourite. This "sheeplike" following of the bookies, who are after all the experts, may actually influence the Betfair market much more that you think. It is in fact the world reversed. Secondly, we will never know how much of the liquidity on Betfair actually comes from bookmakers rather than punters. That information is known to Betfair only. But considering the size of turnover from some of the large bookmakers and the relatively low liquidity in comparison the effect could be substantial. We shall never know. My only point is it may be dangerous to assume the Betfair markets represent a 'fair' market that is independently from the bookmakers.

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

Have you considered the possibilty it is actually the bookmakers that determine the Betfair market ? ( the question is not directed to anyone in particular ) Not saying it is so, just consider it. First of all by the time the markets on Betfair have any significant liquidity in them the bookmaker odds are long known. Is it really the punter that determines his price independently of the bookmaker ? If the top 3 bookmakers in the UK have a team priced at 1.20 then a large number of punters will take this as gospel and accept that team to be hot favourite. This "sheeplike" following of the bookies, who are after all the experts, may actually influence the Betfair market much more that you think. It is in fact the world reversed. Secondly, we will never know how much of the liquidity on Betfair actually comes from bookmakers rather than punters. That information is known to Betfair only. But considering the size of turnover from some of the large bookmakers and the relatively low liquidity in comparison the effect could be substantial. We shall never know. My only point is it may be dangerous to assume the Betfair markets represent a 'fair' market that is independently from the bookmakers.

I am not under the impression that the bookies are not heavily involved on Betfair, but I don't believe the Betfair market always follows the oddsmakers. From what I have observed I would say the bookies get heavily involved in the Betfair market shortly before the off.

[HeresTheKey]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Random thoughts: --------- i ll give my perspective in this very interesting thread on this very ancient subject:defining value 1)there s no way to define the probabilities of a future outcome based on past results.anything can happen anytime and yes even Greece can win the Euro.(do you remember 2004?) 2)what bookies are doing is using the number of events and the number of punters and the "upsets" and in this approach no single amateur punter can compare to them.I think it s called "the power of divesification" but my english are poor so forgive me if the term is wrong. 3)Most probably i believe they use compex trading mechanisms in-play(in Betfair for sure but not only0) in order to hedge their risks when something goes wrong. So, more or less they are money making machines and they are unbeatable. --------------------- Betting is mostly fun and that s it should be seen by us mortal creatures.Trying to live from betting is a dangerous idea as it can lead to huge losses if someone thinks/believes this is feasible. Trading with discipline is a whole different annimal and maybe it is the way to go if you dont have a "normal" job.But i think being a consistent winner in trading it is as hard as any "normal" job.It takes patience, knowledge(maths) and excellent stress management(psychologically wise)in order to harness this animal. --------------- I will be very happy if someone can prove me wrong in practice. ------------ Mayfly's threads are hugely interesting and valuable to me cause they prove(with their own very special way)exactly what i m claiming here:there s no winning system in the long term. ----------------------- The only way you can be profitable in punting is being lucky and fearfull(means you re having a cautious money managementplan all the way)at the same time. ------- Pedictions with odds around 2(from 1,80 - 2,20) are the biggest trap for us, common people, and should be avoided. ------------ I know that making bold statements without proof it may not be helpfull so i ll understand if this post is deleted from moderators. ------------- Many soccer, basket, horce racing games etc are fixed.As UEFA proved very lately in my country(greece). Dont waste your time and money on illusions and on things that are decided away from you and against you. ------- Have fun with betting and try to be good in your "normal" job.

[Mulkis]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED Wow, thats a solid view! As solid as Greece financial system:)

[v-zero]

Re: ODDSMAKER REQUIRED

Random thoughts: --------- i ll give my perspective in this very interesting thread on this very ancient subject:defining value 1)there s no way to define the probabilities of a future outcome based on past results.anything can happen anytime and yes even Greece can win the Euro.(do you remember 2004?) 2)what bookies are doing is using the number of events and the number of punters and the "upsets" and in this approach no single amateur punter can compare to them.I think it s called "the power of divesification" but my english are poor so forgive me if the term is wrong. 3)Most probably i believe they use compex trading mechanisms in-play(in Betfair for sure but not only0) in order to hedge their risks when something goes wrong. So, more or less they are money making machines and they are unbeatable. --------------------- Betting is mostly fun and that s it should be seen by us mortal creatures.Trying to live from betting is a dangerous idea as it can lead to huge losses if someone thinks/believes this is feasible. Trading with discipline is a whole different annimal and maybe it is the way to go if you dont have a "normal" job.But i think being a consistent winner in trading it is as hard as any "normal" job.It takes patience, knowledge(maths) and excellent stress management(psychologically wise)in order to harness this animal. --------------- I will be very happy if someone can prove me wrong in practice. ------------ Mayfly's threads are hugely interesting and valuable to me cause they prove(with their own very special way)exactly what i m claiming here:there s no winning system in the long term. ----------------------- The only way you can be profitable in punting is being lucky and fearfull(means you re having a cautious money managementplan all the way)at the same time. ------- Pedictions with odds around 2(from 1,80 - 2,20) are the biggest trap for us, common people, and should be avoided. ------------ I know that making bold statements without proof it may not be helpfull so i ll understand if this post is deleted from moderators. ------------- Many soccer, basket, horce racing games etc are fixed.As UEFA proved very lately in my country(greece). Dont waste your time and money on illusions and on things that are decided away from you and against you. ------- Have fun with betting and try to be good in your "normal" job.

www.matchodds.org

[ajaxAgain]

Re: Oddsmaker required Don't get me wrong I wasn't suggesting that there aren't some very good models with a proven record of profit. For me personally I need the comfort, on top of what my stats suggest, of why there's a profit and to active design it into my strategy almost on a bet by bet basis. Key to that is understanding how the bookies operate, which is all i believe the OP is suggesting. It can only be a good thing to occasionally look at the book from the opposite side, challenge our beliefs and find potential new ways to squeeze an edge.